am19psu Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 OT discussion gone. Sorry about that. I started it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I would still lean left of NHC given the intensity issues and the model bias, but not sure I would be calling for re-strengthen to a cane when its highly possible Emily just dies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Shifted West. Based on her current motion I would surmise that the western part of this cone is the likely track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 CU Met has been great in highlighting this, but the northwesterly flow at 300mb continues over the system. The southerly flow at 200mb is also not doing the storm any favors either. If convection does not redevelop over or near the circulation center this afternoon, Emily might continue south of Hispaniola, but there won't be much left with it. We are really left with two options this afternoon... convection returns near and over the center and draws Emily northward into Hispaniola or convection does not return over the center and Emily dissipates into a open trough south of Hispaniola. I think it is very unlikely that Emily misses Hispaniola completely without also degenerating into a post-tropical entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily looks disorganized today then what I saw yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily looks disorganized today then what I saw yesterday morning. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 CU Met has been great in highlighting this, but the northwesterly flow at 300mb continues over the system. The southerly flow at 200mb is also not doing the storm any favors either. If convection does not redevelop over or near the circulation center this afternoon, Emily might continue south of Hispaniola, but there won't be much left with it. We are really left with two options this afternoon... convection returns near and over the center and draws Emily northward into Hispaniola or convection does not return over the center and Emily dissipates into a open trough south of Hispaniola. I think it is very unlikely that Emily misses Hispaniola completely without also degenerating into a post-tropical entity. There is a third way that I think is more likely, and we may be seeing evidence of it... I think Emily will not redevelop significant convection near the center until it passes the island, but it will maintain small amounts of thunderstorms that may fluctuate in intensity on the east side of the low level center... Just enough to maintain the circulation. I do not see the circulation dissipating... But track wise this could lead the center to either missing the island or only tracking across the southern peninsula of Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 wve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 This thing looks like Tropical Storm Erika back in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 My guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Everything else aside for a moment... If Emily walls up against Hispanola as nothing more than a low level cyclone with convection detached way SE, that's it - game over. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Still heading near due west looking at the loops... Weak convection is firing up on the east side but shear is way too much for now for anything decent to get going. I'm not convinced it'll even hit Haiti anymore given this long term track, the only way it scoots up is if the convection deepens and not sure conditions aloft will allow that to happen in any meaningful way. 280 looks a little optimistic from the NHC, I suppose 6-9hrs motion may just about back that up if you round up...probably 275 is a better estimate in the last 3-4hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Still heading near due west looking at the loops... Weak convection is firing up on the east side but shear is way too much for now for anything decent to get going. I'm not convinced it'll even hit Haiti anymore given this long term track, the only way it scoots up is if the convection deepens and not sure conditions aloft will allow that to happen in any meaningful way. 280 looks a little optimistic from the NHC, I suppose 6-9hrs motion may just about back that up if you round up...probably 275 is a better estimate in the last 3-4hrs. Since it became exposed, it has been a perfect 270 heading. It's going to miss Hispaniola (or Española ... not Hispañola Dr.! )... with the only chance being to hit the Tiburon peninsula. It's probably time to start giving more weight to either the dissipation or GOM scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Yeah Wxmx, clearly not hitting DR anymore thats for surwe, NHC going to need to shift the track much further west... Its certainly possible it dies, I'm just a little wary of a system like this getting deeper into the Caribbean...it'd be mighty rare for it not to encounter better conditions at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Since it became exposed, it has been a perfect 270 heading. It's going to miss Hispaniola (or Española ... not Hispañola Dr.! )... with the only chance being to hit the Tiburon peninsula. It's probably time to start giving more weight to either the dissipation or GOM scenarios. That's what I'm thinking as well. Not sure it survives, but if it does, have to give more weight to a more westward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Yeah Wxmx, clearly not hitting DR anymore thats for surwe, NHC going to need to shift the track much further west... Its certainly possible it dies, I'm just a little wary of a system like this getting deeper into the Caribbean...it'd be mighty rare for it not to encounter better conditions at some point... I put the dissipation scenario out there just not to look like a weenie, but I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 12Z GFS is starting to come out, and it has shifted west slightly.... now has Emily going over PaP... but overall, it looks like it is going to be way too far to the right- again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Since it became exposed, it has been a perfect 270 heading. It's going to miss Hispaniola (or Española ... not Hispañola Dr.! )... with the only chance being to hit the Tiburon peninsula. It's probably time to start giving more weight to either the dissipation or GOM scenarios. I always thought it was Hispañola!? Oh well, call me Spanglish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Since it became exposed, it has been a perfect 270 heading. It's going to miss Hispaniola (or Española ... not Hispañola Dr.! )... with the only chance being to hit the Tiburon peninsula. It's probably time to start giving more weight to either the dissipation or GOM scenarios. I was not aware of any GOM scenarios. The High located over the GOM would have to weaken or retrograde to the west for that to happen. Is there any model supoort for this scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I really dont understand forecasts that do not at least lean to the proper side of the guidance envelope, especially give the model error thus far and the poor organization, not to mention more of a northerly component of shear than a southerly one which would only aid in center relocation south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I was not aware of any GOM scenarios. The High located over the GOM would have to weaken or retrograde to the west for that to happen. Is there any model supoort for this scenario? The only current GOM scenario out there is one in which Emily basically tracks up or just off of the west coast of Florida... I assume this is what wxmx is referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I really dont understand forecasts that do not at least lean to the proper side of the guidance envelope, especially give the model error thus far and the poor organization, not to mention more of a northerly component of shear than a southerly one which would only aid in center relocation south. Thanks for those graphs... this is the sentiment I've been feeling since a few days ago, especially with respect to the GFS and its members. Yesterday someone, I can't remember who (sorry!) posted a verification of how both the GFS an Euro have been underforecasting the 590 dm line on the Bermuda High pretty consistently, as well. Combine that with the overdone intensity forecasts, and you have a recipe for a more westward track than anticipated. I believe the models have consistently initialized Emily as too organized, whereas Emily has pretty much always been a disorganized mess.. save for a brief moment of hope earlier yesterday. That would also lead to forecasts that overdo a recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The only current GOM scenario out there is one in which Emily basically tracks up or just off of the west coast of Florida... I assume this is what wxmx is referring to? The whole GOM... but with the higher probability for the NE GOM for now. There's a heat ridge in the center and south of the CONUS, if Emily gets tucked underneath it, it's not going to turn north much. Also, if it stays weak, it will still truck mostly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 This is probably a very good example of -NAO/-AO setups where it's very hard to hit the east coast.... either it recurves or gets into the GOM.... if it gets caught in the weakness, it will recurve, but if it misses it, then the usually stronger than normal SE ridge will keep it moving towards the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Everything else aside for a moment... If Emily walls up against Hispanola as nothing more than a low level cyclone with convection detached way SE, that's it - game over. Next. Wrong side of Hispaniola, but I get a feeling of a Tropical Storm Chris, with a low cloud swirl gaining distance from the convection and the sustem just dying. I see there are trained professionals that disagree, but between shear, dry air, and possible interaction with Haiti, I don't see this ending well. And still dumping heavy rains in a disaster area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Okay... this run of the GFS is just entertaining. Between 30-36 hours, it basically has the center of Emily jump around Cuba through the Windward Passage.. but it also has it getting stronger as it looks to parallel just off the east coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The whole GOM... but with the higher probability for the NE GOM for now. There's a heat ridge in the center and south of the CONUS, if Emily gets tucked underneath it, it's not going to turn north much. Also, if it stays weak, it will still truck mostly west. Okay I see what you are saying... although right now, this seems unlikely unless Emily completely dissipates along with most of her convection, then the remnants go into the Gulf and redevelop there.... also unlikely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Wrong side of Hispaniola, but I get a feeling of a Tropical Storm Chris, with a low cloud swirl gaining distance from the convection and the sustem just dying. I see there are trained professionals that disagree, but between shear, dry air, and possible interaction with Haiti, I don't see this ending well. And still dumping heavy rains in a disaster area. The first part of your analysis (which I agree with) doesn't support your last sentence. If all of this stuff is going to be detrimental for convection, why are you worried about dumping heavy rains in the disaster area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Thanks for those graphs... this is the sentiment I've been feeling since a few days ago, especially with respect to the GFS and its members. Yesterday someone, I can't remember who (sorry!) posted a verification of how both the GFS an Euro have been underforecasting the 590 dm line on the Bermuda High pretty consistently, as well. Combine that with the overdone intensity forecasts, and you have a recipe for a more westward track than anticipated. I believe the models have consistently initialized Emily as too organized, whereas Emily has pretty much always been a disorganized mess.. save for a brief moment of hope earlier yesterday. That would also lead to forecasts that overdo a recurve. That doesn't seem to be the case with the 12z GFS... if the models end up being too rightward with the track, it will be due to under-forecasting the mid-level ridge over Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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