Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Newest vortex message Previous vortex had a the fix at 16 deg 19 min N 067 deg 25 min W, so a movement between messages of 1 min North and 27 min West. Pretty much a due west movement for the current time. HDOB and that VDM are very Don-esque in having very dry air, ballpark 10ºC delta temperature to dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily has not gained much latitude and does appear to be S of the track forecast. The next advisory should be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Motion between first fix and last fix of recon was something around the 275-276 mark, last recon fix showed a motion of 285. Still 6hr motion is deffo less then 285....and the 12hrs motion probably is as well though I've not checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 800 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 ...EMILY HEADING WESTWARD...REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 69.0W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily has not gained much latitude and does appear to be S of the track forecast. The next advisory should be very interesting. LLC relocating SSE of current position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 LLC relocating SSE of current position? Probably more a function of a weak LLC rotating within a broad elongated low center. Emily is not a healthy cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 when was the last time a season started out with 5 NS, none of which reached hurricane strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily is almost exposed, in the NW edge of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 when was the last time a season started out with 5 NS, none of which reached hurricane strength 2003. Edit: it was actually 2002, my bad. 7 NS in total. 2006 had 5 non-hurricanes if you count the unamed tropical storm. http://en.wikipedia....urricane_season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Naked swirl alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Naked swirl alert. Yep. Totally decoupled and likely will become nothing more than a sharp wave. Perhaps the guidance that suggested the 500mb vort moving S of Hispaniola were more correct. Next RECON mission will 'tell the tale' on Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Naked swirl alert. Emily is naked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Naked swirl alert. Blah!! How pathetic!! The worse type of porn is a naked TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily is naked! At least we can finally SEE the center! Emily is struggling mightily with all the dry air to the north and wind shear... The best convergence is to the southeast of the llc and it's going to be extremely difficult to get all the convection over the center with that WNW wind shear. We'll have to see how it handles Hispaniola... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 At least we can finally SEE the center! Emily is struggling mightily with all the dry air to the north and wind shear... The best convergence is to the southeast of the llc and it's going to be extremely difficult to get all the convection over the center with that WNW wind shear. We'll have to see how it handles Hispaniola... If it even encounters Hispaniola....now decoupled, Emily will most certainly be steered by lower level currents (more on a westerly track)... Now, if convection refires near the center soon, then it should turn to the NW more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 wonder if we see the llc stay south of the big island - not that that would necessarily help her future as a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 If it even encounters Hispaniola....now decoupled, Emily will most certainly be steered by lower level currents (more on a westerly track)... Now, if convection refires near the center soon, then it should turn to the NW more... Can you update your forecast if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Can you update your forecast if possible. yes, LEK can you update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Can you update your forecast if possible. yes, LEK can you update. Don't have any time for graphics, nor analysis, but I'll ride my current forecast for now, with the only tweeks being a lesser intensity as it nears Haiti. Track staying the same, with an exposed llc (more westward than current NHC) more than likely to verify. Could be a new midlevel center (and possibly a new llc) forming later today with the main convection to the east....but we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Naked swirl alert. Yep and moving almost due west it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 If it even encounters Hispaniola....now decoupled, Emily will most certainly be steered by lower level currents (more on a westerly track)... Now, if convection refires near the center soon, then it should turn to the NW more... This... and it's about what I figured Emily would do around Hispañola. One thing that is certainly not helping Emily is the lee flow over Hispañola's mountains which is easily pumping some dry air into the system. It will be very interesting to watch how Emily interacts with that southern peninsula of Haiti with respect to its mountains, dry air, and if Emily is able to just skirt by it. Emily will most likely weaken as she is passing the entire island... will she become a tropical wave? I'm not sure about her weakening that much..there is still a chance for the LLC to either redefine itself or slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Don't have any time for graphics, nor analysis, but I'll ride my current forecast for now, with the only tweeks being a lesser intensity as it nears Haiti. Track staying the same, with an exposed llc (more westward than current NHC) more than likely to verify. Could be a new midlevel center (and possibly a new llc) forming later today with the main convection to the east....but we shall see... Hmmm... so you take this into the upper keys as a minimal cane? Can you make your image larger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 What really is amazing in the last few years has been how the large scale environment has been causing a large degree of vertical tilt between low, mid and upper level circulation centers. What seems to stand out is the stronger than normal Azores high displaced farther north. Additionally, with a stronger Azores high and weaker Bermuda, one can see similarities to last year with tracks that favor recurving in the western atlantic with close calls from FL up the East Coast and/or staying far enough south through the Caribbean. Best analog matches given warm Atlantic and blocking: Tracks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Hmmm... so you take this into the upper keys as a minimal cane? Can you make your image larger? From the first thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Shifted West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I have a very hard time believing this thing will survive Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Shifted West. The 'worst' of this system will always be on its eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I have a very hard time believing this thing will survive Hispaniola. I disagree... at this point, Emily is pretty much not going to go over the worst of Hispañola. The biggest question is the effect of that fairly mountainous southern peninsula of Haiti. Even if Emily opens up into a wave, it will more likely be due to shear than Hispañola even though the dry lee flow isn't helping. Regardless of that, conditions are suppose to improve once it passes the island completely, and at that point Emily will have a much better chance of reorganizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 While visible imagery might reveal that Emily is still quite poorly organized, it also shows that it has a decently well defined llc. There is also a couple of other things worth mentioning. Note the developing convection to the northeast. This will likely continue to blossom as the storm moves westward and gets closer to Hispaniola and frictional convergence aids in the lifting process. Once this convection bursts we could see this attempt to pull the center further north this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The new NHC track almost threads the needle regarding land interaction. If it were just a hair west of the NHC track it would go over the thin part of Hispaniola and then a relatively thin part of Cuba. I don't know how much it matters though given the mountains of Hispaniola will disrupt the circulation even if the center is over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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