Remnants of Emily Part II: 295 Miles SSE Of Cape Hatteras, NC

[IsentropicLift]

It certainly looks great on IR this evening with an expanding CDO

[CUmet]

The northwesterly flow around 300 mb continues to present big problems for Emily. The Santo Domingo and San Juan 00z soundings both have been showing this:

Although the low-level flow had slowed and may have alleviated the shear some during the day, it appears this northwesterly flow has strengthened to near and over 20 kt, whereas last night it was around 10-15 kt. Convection continues to be displaced to the east of the center as evidenced by radar, satellite, and microwave imagery. That consistent and fairly symmetric ball of intense convection that's stuck to the east side is something I've seen in other cases that have featured outflow-undercutting shear, and thus the IR presentation is highly misleading. Given the continuance of marginal environmental conditions, I don't expect any significant intensification prior to Hispaniola. Steady-state appears the most likely scenario until landfall in Hispaniola. There is a small chance that it could open up into a wave prior to that as the 850-200 mb shear increases over the next day.

This will have an opportunity to reorganize after Hispaniola as the environment improves.

[phil882]

The northwesterly flow around 300 mb continues to present big problems for Emily. The Santo Domingo and San Juan 00z soundings both have been showing this:

Although the low-level flow had slowed and may have alleviated the shear some during the day, it appears this northwesterly flow has strengthened to near and over 20 kt, whereas last night it was around 10-15 kt. Convection continues to be displaced to the east of the center as evidenced by radar, satellite, and microwave imagery. That consistent and fairly symmetric ball of intense convection that's stuck to the east side is something I've seen in other cases that have featured outflow-undercutting shear, and thus the IR presentation is highly misleading. Given the continuance of marginal environmental conditions, I don't expect any significant intensification prior to Hispaniola. Steady-state appears the most likely scenario until landfall in Hispaniola. There is a small chance that it could open up into a wave prior to that as the 850-200 mb shear increases over the next day.

This will have an opportunity to reorganize after Hispaniola as the environment improves.

Strongly Agree... the GFS also shows this strong northerly 300mb flow from now through much of the day. The next 12-24 hours will likely be the strongest shear that Emily has faced yet.

[wxmx]

Recon shows it hasn't strengthened, the very elongated LLC is well west of the main ball of convection and it's moving west currently

[phil882]

Recon just found the center at 16.3N and 67.4W which is somewhat removed from the convection on radar.

[Dunkman]

Anyone know how old the satellite and radar images on google earth are (the downloaded version)? When I compare them to the web images they seem several hours old.

I'm not trying to say the center isn't displaced to the west, just that when I looked at the web based version it was slightly less horribly displaced than when I looked in the standalone google earth.

[tmagan]

For Haiti, it is going to make all the difference in the world whether the low level center goes west of them or east of them, for the excessive flooding rains are more likely east of the system.

[CooL]

00z GFDL pretty much has the exact NHC track with a recurve track offshore

00z HWRF has a coastal scraper from FL to NC

[cmichweather]

Looking at the ASCAT, and radar I think the track is gonna need to be shifted a bit west of the current NHC path. The very far glance of convection from the PR radar indicated a due west track as of right now. Either way though eastern Cuba has plenty of terrain so who knows how it does after the land interaction.

[OHweather]

Recon just found the center at 16.3N and 67.4W which is somewhat removed from the convection on radar.

Not too terribly surprising, you can see a weaker band of convection trying to wrap around what is likely a broad surface circulation to the west of the main area of convection. Given the main area of convection has its own spin to it, I'd venture to guess that that is associated with the mid level vortex:

[OHweather]

Looking at the ASCAT, and radar I think the track is gonna need to be shifted a bit west of the current NHC path. The very far glance of convection from the PR radar indicated a due west track as of right now. Either way though eastern Cuba has plenty of terrain so who knows how it does after the land interaction.

The mid level circulation appears to be heading just about due west, maybe a tick south of due west. The low level circulation is hard to spot. Based on some weaker echoes trying to pop up, I think I have made an ok guess at where it is at. It's hard to gauge the motion, but the low level circulation may also be heading just about due west. A longer loop would help, but I never paid the $10 or whatever it is to wunderground.

[Thunder Road]

Just my two cents, but the 0z HWRF probably needs to be disregarded - at least on intensity.

It has a hurricane at 06z (as in 45 minutes ago) with 10m winds of 69 kts and a pressure of ~992 mb. I'm not exactly sure where that came from.

Blowing Emily up into a hurricane before land interaction will affect intensity down the road as well, so I'd say take this run with a grain of salt.

[cmichweather]

The mid level circulation appears to be heading just about due west, maybe a tick south of due west. The low level circulation is hard to spot. Based on some weaker echoes trying to pop up, I think I have made an ok guess at where it is at. It's hard to gauge the motion, but the low level circulation may also be heading just about due west. A longer loop would help, but I never paid the $10 or whatever it is to wunderground.

You are pretty much spot on, the mid level circulation is being captured by the radar out of PR, we are looking at about 14-16K feet. I think where the actual low level center is might be a bit south of what you have but the overall circulation packet hasn't shown much northern movement this evening. The NHC track has a NW track already occuring so any westward track right now will shift the overall track a bit west, 5 am update will be significant.

[CooL]

Those arent the surface winds. It would be silly to have a well known hurricane model initializing a 50mph tropical storm as a hurricane. I think thats like 900mb winds or something like that. Not the surface.

[tmagan]

Just my two cents, but the 0z HWRF probably needs to be disregarded - at least on intensity.

It has a hurricane at 06z (as in 45 minutes ago) with 10m winds of 69 kts and a pressure of ~992 mb. I'm not exactly sure where that came from.

Blowing Emily up into a hurricane before land interaction will affect intensity down the road as well, so I'd say take this run with a grain of salt.

The difference between a 60 kt. and a 70 kt. storm at landfall is irrelevant for its future. In fact, sometimes I wonder if we should use the term hurricane at all, because the difference between a 60 knot and a 70 knot storm is very little. The term 'hurricane' gets more people listening though. In the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea I believe, they just use the term 'tropical cyclone' for any storm 35 knots or stronger.

[Thunder Road]

Those arent the surface winds. It would be silly to have a well known hurricane model initializing a 50mph tropical storm as a hurricane. I think thats like 900mb winds or something like that. Not the surface.

It initialized with 10m winds of 44.4 kts and a pressure of 1005 mb. The diagram says MSLP right at the top. Something fishy is going on.

[dan88]

Those arent the surface winds. It would be silly to have a well known hurricane model initializing a 50mph tropical storm as a hurricane. I think thats like 900mb winds or something like that. Not the surface.

It says "wind at 10m" and "Max 10m winds" right on the map, which is surface. It also wasn't an initialization, it was T+6h.

[HurricaneJosh]

It says 10m (10 meter) winds right on the map, which is surface. It also wasn't an initialization, it was T+6h.

Yep-- I was about to say that: 10 m = surface wind, so the 6-hr frame does show a hurricane.

[cmichweather]

hot towers, (cold cloud tops) seem to be developing to the SW of the surface circulation (per PR radar). We'll have to see what recon finds but i think we may have some strengthening occurring although it may be modest.

[CooL]

It says "wind at 10m" and "Max 10m winds" right on the map, which is surface. It also wasn't an initialization, it was T+6h.

ahh thanks, i didnt even see that i just always thought it was something different. Makes sense. But should we be expecting a cane in 6 hrs anyway?

[Thunder Road]

ahh thanks, i didnt even see that i just always thought it was something different. Makes sense. But should we be expecting a cane in 6 hrs an hour ago anyway?

Despite the convection developing on the south side of the llc, I think not, which is why I posted that image. Any thoughts on why the model did that? Or is it somehow possible that, whether hurricane or not, we actually see significant strengthening tonight?

[phil882]

I wouldn't worry about micro-analyzing the HWRF model too much... Over the past several years it has been one of the worst preforming models with regards to both track and intensity of tropical cyclones. You are much better off going with the global models such as the GFS and ECWMF or even the GFDL.

[PennyForYourThoughts]

065030 1626N 06759W 8428 01535 0037 +208 +081 054016 018 014 001 00

Lowest pressure we've seen so far with the storm...at least I believe it is anyway.

[David Reimer]

A dropsonde just measured a 1003 MB pressure with a 12 knot wind.

[dan88]

Newest vortex message

000

URNT12 KNHC 030713

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011

A. 03/06:48:00Z

B. 16 deg 20 min N

067 deg 52 min W

C. 850 mb 1460 m

D. 35 kt

E. 128 deg 82 nm

F. 152 deg 38 kt

G. 129 deg 87 nm

H. 1003 mb

I. 17 C / 1528 m

J. 20 C / 1521 m

K. 8 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 134 / 8

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF306 0705A EMILY OB 07

MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 04:43:50Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 07:03:20Z

MAX FL TEMP 21 C 311 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR

Previous vortex had a the fix at 16 deg 19 min N 067 deg 25 min W, so a movement between messages of 1 min North and 27 min West. Pretty much a due west movement for the current time.

[tmagan]

I just noticed TJUA went super-res.

[Connor McCrorey]

Finally got around to registering/coming over from Eastern (I mainly just lurk anyways). Emily has looked great on satellite all night, and even given less-than-perfect conditions, some steady, if slow, strengthening should certainly be expected as long as this presentation is maintained. Interesting to see the four millibar drop between the last two VDMs, although I suspect they just missed the lowest pressures on the first.

The most noteworthy thing about Emily tonight is its movement. Recon now has three fixes showing two periods of essentially due west movement. Infrared satellite has been showing (for hours now) an improving an WSW moving CDO over Emily. This could mean either 1) convection is centering over the center or 2) we will continue to see a more westerly motion out of Emily for a little while longer. Possibly both. For those who want a stronger cyclone with as little interaction with Hispaniola as possible, I think tonight has been nothing but positive.

Unlike many, I still have not discounted Emily reaching the Gulf, even if only to try a Donna-esque brief scraping of the west coast of Florida. The center is already south of the Dominican Republic, and has not yet begun to gain lattitude. Not counting on this happening, but I think Emily certainly has a better chance at slipping farther west than many are giving her.

[phil882]

Finally got around to registering/coming over from Eastern (I mainly just lurk anyways). Emily has looked great on satellite all night, and even given less-than-perfect conditions, some steady, if slow, strengthening should certainly be expected as long as this presentation is maintained. Interesting to see the four millibar drop between the last two VDMs, although I suspect they just missed the lowest pressures on the first.

The most noteworthy thing about Emily tonight is its movement. Recon now has three fixes showing two periods of essentially due west movement. Infrared satellite has been showing (for hours now) an improving an WSW moving CDO over Emily. This could mean either 1) convection is centering over the center or 2) we will continue to see a more westerly motion out of Emily for a little while longer. Possibly both. For those who want a stronger cyclone with as little interaction with Hispaniola as possible, I think tonight has been nothing but positive.

Unlike many, I still have not discounted Emily reaching the Gulf, even if only to try a Donna-esque brief scraping of the west coast of Florida. The center is already south of the Dominican Republic, and has not yet begun to gain lattitude. Not counting on this happening, but I think Emily certainly has a better chance at slipping farther west than many are giving her.

Welcome to the forums!

The westerly motion is interesting, but my hunch is that this is just a short term bend in the overall wnw motion that has occurred in the past 18 hours. It will be interesting to see what happens later today when Emily gets closer to Hispaniola. The island has been known to cause weird track effects to tropical cyclones. One suggestion is that as the northern part of the circulation starts to interact with land, the frictional convergence may help to excite thunderstorm activity which could then pull the center further north. This would be in addition to the slowing of the wind in the northern quadrant which would also tend to force the cyclone to track further north. This is what the vorticity fields on the GFS seem to be indicating, a significant jump northward occurring in the next 12-24 hours.

[phil882]

Here are my morning thoughts on Emily... there is a decent chance that Emily still might not survive the track across Hispaniola. However, if it does, I have updated my forecast to reflect the far more favorable conditions that are expected in the Atlantic basin near the Bahamas. The next 24-48 hours will be Emily's biggest battle, although it has been hanging in there pretty well thus far.

http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/08/03/emily-a-little-stronger-future-remains-uncertain/

[Connor McCrorey]

Welcome to the forums!

The westerly motion is interesting, but my hunch is that this is just a short term bend in the overall wnw motion that has occurred in the past 18 hours. It will be interesting to see what happens later today at Emily gets closer to Hispaniola. The island has been known to cause weird track effects to tropical cyclones. One suggestion is that as the northern part of the circulation starts to interact with land the frictional convergence may help to excite thunderstorm activity which could then pull the center further north. This would be in addition to the slowing of the wind in the northern quadrant which would also tend to force the cyclone to track further north. This is what the vorticity fields on the GFS seem to be indicating, a significant jump northward occurring in the next 12-24 hours.

Thanks! You just made some great points I hadn't even considered (I'm up late, gimme a break ). I would expect that this would be an even more significant effect on stronger cyclones, however, which Emily clearly is not and will not be around Hispaniola time. You're very right, and I'm glad you pointed it out, but I wouldn't expect it to be quite as severe of a pull northward as it would be on a 'cane, although I've certainly been wrong before. I'd also note that the 0Z GFS already had Emily cruising NW at this time, which isn't happening. Like you said, it's definitely more of a short term trend than a long term one, and that pull north will happen, but the longer it takes, the more interesting this gets, as this is one of those cases where every inch could matter! Recon is getting ready to get it there again, it will be interesting to see if Emily is still moving west.