Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 800 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 ...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 66.1W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 18z HWRF. Back West http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/18zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2hwrfLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Would love to see the HWRF or GFDL verify.. would be wonderful windy beach conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 18z HWRF. Back West http://raleighwx.ame...t2hwrfLoop.html Oh that would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Christ on a cracker. I think I officially give up on the models until more G IV data is ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Christ on a cracker. I think I officially give up on the models until more G IV data is ingested. Just do what I do. Until told otherwise, assume it's going to hit Ft. Lauderdale. LOL. In all seriousness, isn't it hard to trust models when they are 5 days out and you have all that land interacting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPFLL Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Christ on a cracker. I think I officially give up on the models until more G IV data is ingested. haha good one.. but seriously good question.. when would they send out the G IV again? after it crosses Haiti/DR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 haha good one.. but seriously good question.. when would they send out the G IV again? after it crosses Haiti/DR? The next one will be tomorrow evening, likely showing up in Thursday's 12Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Just do what I do. Until told otherwise, assume it's going to hit Ft. Lauderdale. LOL. In all seriousness, isn't it hard to trust models when they are 5 days out and you have all that land interacting? The track, honestly, is what is frustrating me more than the intensity. In terms of track and land interaction, they are not nearly as important as trying to get a solid understanding of the evolution of the trough, the strength of the Bermuda High, and their interaction with Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The track, honestly, is what is frustrating me more than the intensity. In terms of track and land interaction, they are not nearly as important as trying to get a solid understanding of the evolution of the trough, the strength of the Bermuda High, and their interaction with Emily. You think so? While I agree the pattern is still relatively complicated, the majority of the reliable guidance that shows a real physical system beyond Hispaniola all show re-curvature, and have actually shifted east. I wouldn't put your faith in the HWRF. I'm still primarily concerned of the storm's intensity, because I still think there is a decent chance that Emily does not survive its interaction with Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa....b/flash-rb.html it might just be my weenie eyes but it looks like Emily's foward motion has slowed a bit in the last few frames..Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa....b/flash-rb.html it might just be my weenie eyes but it looks like Emily's foward motion has slowed a bit in the last few frames..Thoughts? Its exceptionally difficult to estimate forward motion or even position using IR satellite imagery, especially when a storm is poorly organized or sheared. Other observations like radar and recon observations are much more useful. In this case, radar shows that the center is still moving along nicely, while convection is lagging behind on the eastern quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 You think so? While I agree the pattern is still relatively complicated, the majority of the reliable guidance that shows a real physical system beyond Hispaniola all show re-curvature, and have actually shifted east. I wouldn't put your faith in the HWRF. I'm still primarily concerned of the storm's intensity, because I still think there is a decent chance that Emily does not survive its interaction with Hispaniola. and there has been no evidence thus far of a NW or even WNW turn even though most guidance has spelled this out shortly after initialization for the past 24 plus. My amateur question is why do you lean on the consensus of guidance when verification has not happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 and there has been no evidence thus far of a NW or even WNW turn even though most guidance has spelled this out shortly after initialization for the past 24 plus. My amateur question is why do you lean on the consensus of guidance when verification has not happened? Some data related to the question.. Source: http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Home/TCGuid.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 and there has been no evidence thus far of a NW or even WNW turn even though most guidance has spelled this out shortly after initialization for the past 24 plus. My amateur question is why do you lean on the consensus of guidance when verification has not happened? But it has happened... sure the center has been jumping around, but the NHC best track thus far shows a WNW motion. I believe the models because thus far, aside from center relocations, they have been doing decently well with the track to Hispaniola since it moved into the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 But it has happened... sure the center has been jumping around, but the NHC best track thus far those a WNW motion. I believe the models because thus far, aside from center relocations, they have been doing decently well with the track to Hispaniola since it moved into the Caribbean. You are both right in a way.. By looking at this plot you can see that the models are doing a pretty good job on the issue of track. As in there is not much deviation in the points of the Y axis. However, the models are not doing very well when it comes to storm speed as indicated by all of the models clustered too fast (the X axis) "west" of where the system is currently (the center of the image)... This leads to the errors (Both X and Y combined) I posted in the post I made a few posts back. Source: http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/TC/fig/1/storm1_biaZ.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 But it has happened... sure the center has been jumping around, but the NHC best track thus far those a WNW motion. I believe the models because thus far, aside from center relocations, they have been doing decently well with the track to Hispaniola since it moved into the Caribbean. Ya, I was just about to post... looks like the model consensus from before it was Emily has even been doing decently so far: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22378-ts-emily-215-miles-sse-of-san-juan-pr/page__view__findpost__p__849480 Not perfect, but we're pretty close to the expected track (current position is 16.0°N 66.1°W) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 But it has happened... sure the center has been jumping around, but the NHC best track thus far those a WNW motion. I believe the models because thus far, aside from center relocations, they have been doing decently well with the track to Hispaniola since it moved into the Caribbean. Thanks and I asked because every time I check in, movement is classified as W. In the recent past (24 hours ago plus) Emily was deemed a threat to PR via guidance consensus and yet she will easily clear south. EDIT --- what I was referring to as recent past were INVEST plots, not post genesis and obviously this was well past 24 hours ago. Geez time flies! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Here is another way to look at it... here was the modeling for 8pm yesterday when Emily first Formed... I'd say the models are doing quite well. I have plotted the 24 hour verification (the tropical storm symbol) where the 8pm intermediate advisory indicated Emily was. Most of the models were a touch fast, but generally on the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Might make for a good beach day Saturday. Hopefully she will pass close enough to SoFlo so we get some rain (vegetable garden would greatly appreciate it). Heck, I really wouldn't mind some sheared out mess, as long as its blowing the convection to the west of Emily's COC. ETA: On second thought, it looks like they sped up the track a little bit and it makes its closest pass during Friday night. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Some interesting things going on in the radar world. Convection has shifted from the east to north side with some higher reflectivity showing up on the south side indicating some higher cloud tops and perhaps another attempt at organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 New track is out.. Slightly faster and now forecast a cane off the SE coast, recurving however. But the entire SE coast is still in the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 You think so? While I agree the pattern is still relatively complicated, the majority of the reliable guidance that shows a real physical system beyond Hispaniola all show re-curvature, and have actually shifted east. I wouldn't put your faith in the HWRF. I'm still primarily concerned of the storm's intensity, because I still think there is a decent chance that Emily does not survive its interaction with Hispaniola. Oh I'm not putting all of my eggs in the HWRF basket for sure... I'm just still concerned that there are still decent shifts going on especially when a slightly stronger high could send Emily over Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily's Pulsating Convection take a look CMC loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 That track needs to shift west on its northern end so I can chase . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Oh I'm not putting all of my eggs in the HWRF basket for sure... I'm just still concerned that there are still decent shifts going on especially when a slightly stronger high could send Emily over Florida. NHC would appear to agree with your thinking: THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Oh I'm not putting all of my eggs in the HWRF basket for sure... I'm just still concerned that there are still decent shifts going on especially when a slightly stronger high could send Emily over Florida. I went back to check verification of the modeling of the 594 Dm contour over the US vs. verification, and the GFS and Euro have been consistantly under modeling that particular contour, as well at times over the last few days, an over estimation of the trough exiting the EC.... That said, a slower motion than what the storm was progged yesterday (with the relocations, and the slightly slower than expected speed, will all factor in how this plays out, not only in verification, but in the fluctionations in model world as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 ASCAT pass this evening caught the storm, not in the best shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 0z GFS has a stronger western ridge and a weaker eastern ridge, thus a track a bit to the left of the 18z GFS...that's thru hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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