scottalderson Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 we were sse 34 all morning here in hope town, elbow cay, abaco but now its ssw 25..... Exuma is way far from the center... Nassau and Freeport are hinting at a well defined circulation. Winds are probably higher somewhere in open sea. Emily is coming back in less than 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 we were sse 34 all morning here in hope town, elbow cay, abaco but now its ssw 25..... LLC is around Grand Bahama, with moderate NErly shear, moving due N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 As of 10:30 edt: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_50km/zooms/WMBds19.png Just needs a few westerly wind barbs and we are at td Emily again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 LLC is around Grand Bahama, with moderate NErly shear, moving due N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Recon Live http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 My call from yesterday is looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 My call from yesterday is looking good Save some gas and leave the recon out of this one. Maybe call it a TD but nothing else, since there's shear and the models hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 A great location for a Southeast strike but those deep westerlies are frigg'n relentless. Day after day after day after day..... I don't know why I even bother looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Save some gas and leave the recon out of this one. Maybe call it a TD but nothing else, since there's shear and the models hate it. Judging by the GFS, Bermuda will be in the cone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Save some gas and leave the recon out of this one. Maybe call it a TD but nothing else, since there's shear and the models hate it. There really isn't much shear at all over the system currently. The anemic amount of convection on the north side is due to a little bit of dry air, although it's not nearly as severe as the dry air north ofthe system while it was in the Caribbean. Still it will likely slow but not prevent development of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 i'm taking notes for the forecaster rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Judging by the GFS, Bermuda will be in the cone... Than put them under a a Tropical Depression watch. Tell them to get their umbrellas ready. Winter-time coldfronts produce a lot worse in Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottalderson Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 crazy squalls out here in hope town!! 35 and gusting higher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 How far is this exactly from Miami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 185600 2630N 07753W 9779 00300 0119 +239 +236 252014 015 /// /// 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 I see nothing from RECON data to support an upgrade to a td. Perhaps tomorrow. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Eery skies here in SE FL as an outer rainband approached. Heavy rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Eery skies here in SE FL as an outer rainband approached. Heavy rain right now. FT. Lauderdale with outer bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 I see nothing from RECON data to support an upgrade to a td. Perhaps tomorrow. We will see. Respectfully disagree. Pressures are a bit high, but plenty of West wind obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 I see nothing from RECON data to support an upgrade to a td. Perhaps tomorrow. We will see. Oops... BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011 ...EMILY REGENERATES AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. COAST SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 78.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNT OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILY. WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SQUALLS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Poorly organized but a 30 to 35 knot TD/TS 25 kt TD IMHO. West winds over 30 knots at flight level... 201700 2606N 07832W 9943 00168 0135 +237 +206 281033 035 034 003 00 Edit post for minor details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 NHC Track from Channel 2 in Charleston: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 This is certainly the least exciting regeneration I've seen. Regardless, definitely can't argue with he NHC's forecast reasoning here. Seems pretty clean cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Forecast track and intensity = Cat-5 boring. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Weak depression, but I've seen worst. The recon found west winds and closed a LLC off...A few of the smrf have been at least 30-32 knots. T.d4 of 2000 is the least impressive TD I've seen and maybe t.d7 of 2003 and t.d 11 of 1999. Grace of 2003 sucked as a tropical storm. Almost forgot T.d5 of 2010 sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Given the position of the Bermuda High and Emily's position...aren't north winds actually more important to find than west winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Given the position of the Bermuda High and Emily's position...aren't north winds actually more important to find than west winds? 221000 2720N 07842W 9769 00319 0128 +251 +228 338017 017 /// /// 03 A little N of NW, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Between the dry air nowhere near as bad as it had been per recon and not terrible shear, I think the NHC forecast is a tad conservative and the AC tomorrow finds a 40 to 50 knot storm tomorrow. 18Z GFS basically kills it by the time it passes Bermuda, but I would not be completely surprised if TS watches weren't hoisted after aircraft reports tomorrow. Edit for redundatn 'tomorrow' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 221000 2720N 07842W 9769 00319 0128 +251 +228 338017 017 /// /// 03 A little N of NW, anyway. I wasn't question that classification...I figured there were north winds. It was more of a scientific guess since the "trades" are out of the south on the western edge of the Bermuda High...hence I think north winds on the west side of a low would be more indicative of a closed low than the west winds on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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