wxmx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Those or 06z model plots they just ran the 12z runs. Could very well redevelope but still dont expect much across mainland sfl. Hotlinking won't work for most for that site, unless you have seen the image in the site first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bic Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Don't call it a comeback! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 http://philstropical...-next-few-days/ My thoughts on the Remnants of Emily... I think its likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours under very favorable conditions, although it will take some time to get the llc to re-consolidate. As you can see from the visible loop below there are multiple areas of rotation although the main broad rotation is occurring close to the Cuban coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It's interesting that the convection is shaped like a triangle and it's over the Bahamas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 http://philstropical...-next-few-days/ My thoughts on the Remnants of Emily... I think its likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours under very favorable conditions, although it will take some time to get the llc to re-consolidate. As you can see from the visible loop below there are multiple areas of rotation although the main broad rotation is occurring close to the Cuban coastline. The best low level rotation is occurring between Cuba and Andros island, which has little convection right now, though is on the increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The best low level rotation is occurring between Cuba and Andros island, which has little convection right now, though is on the increase. Get help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It will be interesting to watch the evolution of these remnants over the next couple of days. It appears as though the main area of broad low level rotation is just north of the central Cuban coast line: However, there appear to be two areas of enhanced vorticity among a larger area of broad vorticity. One under the old mid level vortex, and one associated with the broad surface circulation: My guess is the center relocates closer to or under the mid level vortex and results in a recurve out to sea possibly as a moderate tropical storm, however if this can not occur we will probably see a weak surface low or sharp trough move into southern Florida in 1-2 days. Shear continues to relax north of Emily which favors some re-intensification should a more defined surface circulation form near convection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The best low level rotation is occurring between Cuba and Andros island, which has little convection right now, though is on the increase. Yep, that is what am seeing too. As convection continues to pulse it will be interesting to see if this rotation continues to drift westward, or if it will start to be captured by the convection and stall out, allowing for development over the center. NHC stayed with 60% at 2pm, but I imagine if we get any more increase in the convection, that probability will start rising given the amount of rotation exhibited already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 http://philstropical...-next-few-days/ My thoughts on the Remnants of Emily... I think its likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours under very favorable conditions, although it will take some time to get the llc to re-consolidate. As you can see from the visible loop below there are multiple areas of rotation although the main broad rotation is occurring close to the Cuban coastline. Phil, You call conditions favorable over the next 48 hours, but I see a lot of S and SW shear in that photo. When will that relax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Yep, that is what am seeing too. As convection continues to pulse it will be interesting to see if this rotation continues to drift westward, or if it will start to be captured by the convection and stall out, allowing for development over the center. NHC stayed with 60% at 2pm, but I imagine if we get any more increase in the convection, that probability will start rising given the amount of rotation exhibited already. The rotation east of the Central Bahamas is getting better defined and is more vigorous, though the near Cuba one has a little better upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Phil, You call conditions favorable over the next 48 hours, but I see a lot of S and SW shear in that photo. When will that relax? Almost immediately... its taking place right now as the flow shifts more easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 fwiw 12z euro has a well-defined TC crossing the central atlantic days 6-10...same ideas as previous runs though much better defined here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Wow. That graphic implies that the moderate westerly shear this system is experiencing will become harsher easterly shear sometime soon. If this system is going to redevelop, those winds need to decrease a good 20 knots. Once the satellite imagery stops implying that a severe thunderstorm/tornadic waterspout is in the Florida Straits, it could be worth paying attention to once more. As long as it remains close to the United States, some of us don't have a choice but to watch it until it moves away. Almost immediately... its taking place right now as the flow shifts more easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Wow. That graphic implies that the moderate westerly shear this system is experiencing will become harsher easterly shear sometime soon. If this system is going to redevelop, those winds need to decrease a good 20 knots. Once the satellite imagery stops implying that a severe thunderstorm/tornadic waterspout is in the Florida Straits, it could be worth paying attention to once more. As long as it remains close to the United States, some of us don't have a choice but to watch it until it moves away. The flow closer to the broad rotation is much lighter, and the low level flow is also rather brisk easterly near where you see the stronger easterly upper level flow, so the shear is still relatively light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 1. SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBAINDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORMEMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THECENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORMACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEARTHE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMINGMORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXTDAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OFREGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNITRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ONSATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERNBAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OFDEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLYHEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERNBAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 has a shot at becoming the first cane as it escapes the tropics and heads northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 :scooter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 From the Great Tom Skilling.. "Remnants of former Trop Storm Emily getting better organized east of Florida. Storm may regenerate to a trop storm or hurricane this weeknd as it moves north. The National Hurricane Center puts odds of tropical cyclone regeneration at 70%! 34 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Back down to 60% Source SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THETHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICALSTORM EMILY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION HASBECOME LESS WELL DEFINED...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELYHIGH IN THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Not much to it at the surface right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Not much to it at the surface right now If whateer center there is is near Andros Island, oh, neer mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Emily is close to resurrecting... LLC is now under some decent convection. Position is probably just north of Andros island. Radar presentation is also decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 It's so close yet so far for the SE FL metro areas. If there was a ridge pushing this west things would get very interesting, instead it looks like it's going to slide almost due north and we'll be lucky to get some showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Emily is close to resurrecting... LLC is now under some decent convection. Position is probably just north of Andros island. Radar presentation is also decent. Lots of good banding features on radar and they seem to be spinning about a well-defined center. It might be a tropical cyclone again already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Just looping the vis at 11am seems to still be moving NW unless it is just the CDO expanding. You can see the low clouds begining to rotate counter clockwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 Lots of good banding features on radar and they seem to be spinning about a well-defined center. It might be a tropical cyclone again already. Surface obs suggest otherwise. 5-10 mph winds ain't no TC. Perhaps in a day or two while it's heading NE OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Surface obs suggest otherwise. 5-10 mph winds ain't no TC. Perhaps in a day or two while it's heading NE OTS. Well, what surface obs are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 Well, what surface obs are you looking at? Nassau= 9kts from the SW @ 15Z Freeport= 8kts from the N/NE @ 14Z Exuma= 8kts from the S/SE @ 15:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Nassau= 9kts from the SW @ 15Z Freeport= 8kts from the N/NE @ 14Z Exuma= 8kts from the S/SE @ 15:30Z Exuma is way far from the center... Nassau and Freeport are hinting at a well defined circulation. Winds are probably higher somewhere in open sea. Emily is coming back in less than 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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