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Remnants of Emily Part II: 295 Miles SSE Of Cape Hatteras, NC


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I think I can still see a vort max (not saying closed) between Cuba and the Bahamas on the vis loops.

Still a chance it develops, recurves between Bermuda and the Cape (closer to Bermuda) and maybe triggers a regional subform thread, although my prediction of a 40 page SNE thread appears to have been a 'Fail'.

NOUS42 KNHC 051415

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1015 AM EDT FRI 05 AUGUST 2011

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2011

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. REMNATS OF STORM EMILY

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74

A. 06/1800Z

B. AFXXX 1405A INVEST

C. 06/1500Z

D. 25.5N 78.0W

E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT

07/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM EMILY

WAS CANCELED AT 04/2000Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A

05/1800Z MISSION WHICH WAS CANCELED AT 05/1100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

JWP

post-138-0-01081900-1312554929.jpg

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I think its pretty likely that Emily will redevelop over the next 48 hours. Atmospheric conditions are becoming more favorable and there should be enough vorticity to generate a new center. That combined with a large swath of high total precipitable water, very warm sea surface temperatures and high oceanic heat content should help to regenerate Emily.

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I think its pretty likely that Emily will redevelop over the next 48 hours. Atmospheric conditions are becoming more favorable and there should be enough vorticity to generate a new center. That combined with a large swath of high total precipitable water, very warm sea surface temperatures and high oceanic heat content should help to regenerate Emily.

Out to sea or something to watch?

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Out to sea or something to watch?

12Z GFS says pretty close to Florida, but it recurves. The NHC tasking position for tomorrow's invest is only 2º East of Miami. If they find a cyclone, I can see TS watches for Florida if/when they reinitiate advisories. Since it will be fairly close to where the old forecast and reliable models had it, showing a recurve, I'd still assume recurve. Just a matter if that starts late enough to get Florida in on some action.

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Still out to sea although it could get somewhat close to Florida... pattern still hasn't changed despite Emily being a remnant. If it re-develops the mid-level flow will still steer it out to sea.

24lvp55.png

Those or 06z model plots they just ran the 12z runs. Could very well redevelope but still dont expect much across mainland sfl.

track_early1.png

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