PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 If Emily has, in fact, degenerated into a tropical wave, will what is left of the LLC head west? Will the LLC dissipate or is there a chance for regeneration in the GOM if, in fact, the remnants head west? There is no LLC if there is not a closed circulation... however, where what is left of Emily as a whole goes would be entirely dependent on if Emily is able to maintain enough convection and regenerate a circulation once it passes the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Former NWS employee told me that if a forecaster goes against the models they have to do a write up to explain their reasoning, particularly if the forecast goes wrong. I have no reason to assume that is not true considering most governmental/municiple jobs require that sort of accountability so why would NWS be any different. That said, not sure if the hurricane folk are subjected to the same work-related requirement but they probably are. Unless the Forecast Discussion counts as a write up, this is absolutely not true and is not the case at any WFO that I'm aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Keep in mind that, for a while, most track guidance had Emily's center going right over the center of the island... over the highest peaks. Her center... or the rough location of where it was... still has not made landfall. That's the big issue with respect to model tracking. Now, with respect to it potentially opening to a wave, I'm going to say that enough dry flow made it off the island to collapse enough thunderstorms so that their respective cool downdrafts were able to disrupt Emily's circulation... not too much of a leap there. More often than not, systems will find there way to either side of the island, climatoligically speaking, so I never believe that it will go bodily over the apex of the spine until I see it do so....it does happen, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 There is no LLC if there is not a closed circulation... however, where what is left of Emily as a whole goes would be entirely dependent on if Emily is able to maintain enough convection and regenerate a circulation once it passes the islands. What is your educated guess on whether there will be enough of an MLC/convection to develop a new LLC North of Haiti? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 What is your educated guess on whether there will be enough of an MLC/convection to develop a new LLC North of Haiti? I'm confused by what you mean by north of Haiti.... I don't think she will be north of Haiti at any time since she is already past Port-au-Prince for the most part (excepting convection of course). If you mean once she gets past Cuba... then yes, it is certainly possible... its even possible it reforms between Haiti and Cuba, but that is much more improbable especially since the better conditions will be past Cuba. There is still the extremely unlikely chance that the convection dissipates altogether for the most part with the wave tracking into the Gulf. I don't think that will happen, but the chances have increased slightly if she in fact just lost her circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 FWIW the 12Z Euro has basically no surface reflection but does bring the 500MB vort max over south FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Poor JB..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Poor JB..... I can never take that man seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I'm confused by what you mean by north of Haiti.... I don't think she will be north of Haiti at any time since she is already past Port-au-Prince for the most part (excepting convection of course). If you mean once she gets past Cuba... then yes, it is certainly possible... its even possible it reforms between Haiti and Cuba, but that is much more improbable especially since the better conditions will be past Cuba. There is still the extremely unlikely chance that the convection dissipates altogether for the most part with the wave tracking into the Gulf. I don't think that will happen, but the chances have increased slightly if she in fact just lost her circulation. Assuming the current LLC/open wave heads generally West until dies (or just keeps going as a weak wave), and the mid and upper levels cross Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Former NWS employee told me that if a forecaster goes against the models they have to do a write up to explain their reasoning, particularly if the forecast goes wrong. I have no reason to assume that is not true considering most governmental/municiple jobs require that sort of accountability so why would NWS be any different. That said, not sure if the hurricane folk are subjected to the same work-related requirement but they probably are. That doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room or motivation to go against the models, does it. That said, I don't think the models are doing particularly bad with track here. Most of the guidance has been taking Emily over Hispanola - whether west or east bias, meh - splitting hairs. If we want to complain about the models, intensity was more problematic. 3 days ago many, in fact, most of the reliable runs were gung-ho for 80+kt well defined hurricane. None of which did very well with that. If Emily doesn't survive the big island and becomes an open wave after thought, it wouldn't appear that track guidance was ultimately the issue here. John, I worked for many years with the NWS and sometimes disagreed with a model forecast and made changes to it and never had to write anything for my bosses justifying my forecast. I did have to write forecast discussions explaining what my forecast was based on for its users but that was part of the job. With so many models around, it's pretty easy to justify just about any forecast that you want to make., lol. Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 :hurrbear: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Assuming the current LLC/open wave heads generally West until dies (or just keeps going as a weak wave), and the mid and upper levels cross Hispaniola. In that case, it wouldn't likely develop until it got north of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 In that case, it wouldn't likely develop until it got north of Cuba. Educated guess. Under 10%? 25% Even money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Unless the Forecast Discussion counts as a write up, this is absolutely not true and is not the case at any WFO that I'm aware of. This. I have 19 years in the NWS and have never heard of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 John, I worked for many years with the NWS and sometimes disagreed with a model forecast and made changes to it and never had to write anything for my bosses justifying my forecast. I did have to write forecast discussions explaining what my forecast was based on for its users but that was part of the job. With so many models around, it's pretty easy to justify just about any forecast that you want to make., lol. Wes Yeah, that is what it is... I think he meant when forecast goes wildly wrong, and the forecaster went against the grain and blew it though. I dunno - I take your word for it just fine. I never worked at NWS. I was just offering a possible explanation but if is not the case - for all I know it was something endemic to his office. Again, the biggest concern I think at hand is the guidance really over developing Emily the way they did. They missed a lot of dynamical interaction between either dry air, or dry air/dust contamination it would seem. Perhaps problems with sigma levels missing in initialization schemes? interesting questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 :hurrbear: I never stop laughing at this image. Where is that video link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 We'll see what becomes of the mid-level circulation over Hispaniola currently, as it should emerge in the next 6 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I never stop laughing at this image. Where is that video link? try this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Again, the biggest concern I think at hand is the guidance really over developing Emily the way they did. They missed a lot of dynamical interaction between either dry air, or dry air/dust contamination it would seem. Perhaps problems with sigma levels missing in initialization schemes? interesting questions. A big problem for the SHIPS (for the exception of the last 24 hours) was that most of the shear was in the 850-300 mb layer, not the 850-200 layer that SHIPS uses...so it was missing the impact of the shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 A big problem for the SHIPS (for the exception of the last 24 hours) was that most of the shear was in the 850-300 mb layer, not the 850-200 layer that SHIPS uses...so it was missing the impact of the shear. This is an excellent point imo - I wondered yesterday when observing the llv circ run away from the convection how 'sheary' it looked, yet the TPC overlays were not very helpful in identifying - yeah, missing levels: similar ilk of concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 A big problem for the SHIPS (for the exception of the last 24 hours) was that most of the shear was in the 850-300 mb layer, not the 850-200 layer that SHIPS uses...so it was missing the impact of the shear. Kinda off on a tangent here, but is there a way to upgrade SHIPS so it could also factor in mid-level shear into its algorithms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Poor JB..... lol There are a few who have been swinging and missing badly on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 lol There are a few who have been swinging and missing badly on this one. lakeeffectkid is getting smoked too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Poor JB..... I won't derail this thread, but I would love for someone to start an OT thread on how in the world he has built such a successful career in this industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 A big problem for the SHIPS (for the exception of the last 24 hours) was that most of the shear was in the 850-300 mb layer, not the 850-200 layer that SHIPS uses...so it was missing the impact of the shear. Thank you; excellent post, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I won't derail this thread, but I would love for someone to start an OT thread on how in the world he has built such a successful career in this industry. It's not hard. Hype sells. And he's good at selling hype. Everyone thinks the weatherman is wrong anyway, so he swings for the fences everytime knowing he'll hit one out of the park on occasion and then he builds on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Thank you; excellent post, as usual. While the shear is certainly factorable and less than obvious , dry air and SAL was definitely hindering development in the progression of this system, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Kinda off on a tangent here, but is there a way to upgrade SHIPS so it could also factor in mid-level shear into its algorithms? At the tropical conference last year, Mark DeMaria talked about incorporating a vertical profile of shear as opposed to just calculating it between two levels. I'm not sure where that's at right now, but yes there are ongoing efforts to try to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 While the shear is certainly factorable and less than obvious , dry air and SAL was definitely hindering development in the progression of this system, as well. Yea, especially as it entrained some inflow off of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 lol There are a few who have been swinging and missing badly on this one. we need a forecast thread seperate from the obs thread so we dont have to waste brain cells on crappy forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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