U_Thant Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Looking more and more like another win/loss for Shredderola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Emily Graphics Archive http://www.nhc.noaa....5/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Looking more and more like another win/loss for Shredderola. No kidding... I'm having a hard time finding the center... if it still exists on visible. What might happen is that the next 6-18 hours the center will be extraordinarily hard to locate until it gets back over open waters. Then we will have to reassess and see if there is anything left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 If the center has been consistantly south, why are they forecasting such a sharp recurve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Convective mass heading Northwest, but I might be seeing the beginning of the Western edge of the LLC popping out to the West. Will know for sure in a couple more frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 If the center has been consistantly south, why are they forecasting such a sharp recurve? http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2011/EMILY/ shift?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Fairly close to where I think I see the Western edge of the LLC get undressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Fairly close to where I think I see the Western edge of the LLC get undressed. I think I see what you are talking about, but it is really difficult to tell... Looks like another fluctuation in convection for Emily... lets see if she can refire some more near the center later as she passes the Tiburon and receives more frictional convergence from the mountains there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Hmm yea the 12z run was a substantial chance with a much stronger ridge... only major caveat is that there is practically no system post-Hispaniola. Beyond 48 hours the ridge does start to shift back southeast in recognition of the weak upper level trough, so if Emily still exists by this point it will be picked up beyond 25N. Exactly, and this is a point I think is being overlooked by many. Regardless of how far west Emily slides, as long as she is still a tropical cyclone of some sort, it is highly likely that the second trough will be able to pick her up and send her fishing. Even if the ridge rebuilds stronger than forecast between troughs, that will just allow Emily to slide a little further west before recurving. She may or may not approach the east coast of Florida at some point, but the slower she goes, the further east she is going to be when the second trough picks her up. I don't understand why there seems to be the assumption that slow means further west here. To me, slow means a recurve further east. I tried to bring this up yesterday, but it seemed to fall on deaf ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Exactly, and this is a point I think is being overlooked by many. Regardless of how far west Emily slides, as long as she is still a tropical cyclone of some sort, it is highly likely that the second trough will be able to pick her up and send her fishing. Even if the ridge rebuilds stronger than forecast between troughs, that will just allow Emily to slide a little further west before recurving. She may or may not approach the east coast of Florida at some point, but the slower she goes, the further east she is going to be when the second trough picks her up. I don't understand why there seems to be the assumption that slow means further west here. To me, slow means a recurve further east. I tried to bring this up yesterday, but it seemed to fall on deaf ears. Slower also means further south... which could mean that a trough might not be able to pick it up... and when there's a ridge present it could mean that is closer to the ridge base than the ridge axis, which might have a faster flow west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 and even harder to tell where it is with that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Slower also means further south... which could mean that a trough can't pick it up... and when there's a ridge present it could mean that is closer to the ridge base than the ridge axis, which might have a faster flow west. But other than the BAM suite, what models are showing that the storm won't be picked up by the second trough? I am assuming that part is a given, which may be where the difference of opinion is coming from. Now if it goes more quickly westward due to a stronger ridge between the troughs (i.e. in the 1-2 day range), that is the only scenario I could see that really threatens Florida. But even then, the storm would ultimately be picked up by the second trough and race out into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 http://www.opc.ncep....v/Atl_tab.shtml http://www.weatherof...te/index_e.html http://rammb.cira.co...ne/tropical.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 000WTNT35 KNHC 041757TCPAT5BULLETINTROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011200 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011... MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULDDEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC... INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...17.8N 72.8WABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH... 16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 But other than the BAM suite, what models are showing that the storm won't be picked up by the second trough? I am assuming that part is a given, which may be where the difference of opinion is coming from. Now if it goes more quickly westward due to a stronger ridge between the troughs (i.e. in the 1-2 day range), that is the only scenario I could see that really threatens Florida. But even then, the storm would ultimately be picked up by the second trough and race out into the Atlantic. Yep, that scenario is not shown by the trustworthy models, so it's a fat chance now... the argument is that most models are (and have been) too fast (and poleward) in the short term, and what effects (if any) there could be because of that... not really a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I don't understand why there seems to be the assumption that slow means further west here. To me, slow means a recurve further east. I tried to bring this up yesterday, but it seemed to fall on deaf ears. I think this is because the NHC discussions lately have been saying that if it continues WNW instead of NW, the threat to Florida would increase. Of course, if Emily bites it, this is all moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 That last position is where I was guessing on satellite, and it loos sicker than yesterday's naked swirl.. My guess, its decoupled, and the mid level circulation is already heading Northwest, and the LLC will die. Unless the MLC develops a new LLC North of the Greater Antilles, I think its all academic about the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Yep, that scenario is not shown by the trustworthy models, so it's a fat chance now... the argument is that most models are (and have been) too fast (and poleward) in the short term, and what effects (if any) there could be because of that... not really a forecast This. There's only one person, really, that I've seen put out anything resembling a westward forecast. I think the complaints about it are overdone in this thread. 99% of people are on the recurvature page. The argument is how strong of a recurvature considering the relative poleward bias of the models with respect to Emily's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Per recon, looks like the center, if there's one, will be way S (and W) of the intermediate advisory position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Per recon, looks like the center, if there's one, will be way S (and W) of the intermediate advisory position. Looking at IR and vis loops, I think its decoupled and game over. New LLC North of Hispaniola is possible, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Per recon, looks like the center, if there's one, will be way S (and W) of the intermediate advisory position. Yep. Last data I have puts them at 1708 7240, flying W and recording S wind. That position is a long way from where the center is supposed to be. I assume they are trying to find the center attm, but don't know for sure. 175000 1708N 07240W 8426 01593 0126 +171 +067 187016 016 021 001 03 We should petition to get them to live-stream the radio communications! Wouldn't that be hawt?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 New set of obs, and it's looking more and more likely we are tracking a Tropical Wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 New set of obs, and it's looking more and more likely we are tracking a Tropical Wave. Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 It indeed looks like death by Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Yep, that scenario is not shown by the trustworthy models, so it's a fat chance now... the argument is that most models are (and have been) too fast (and poleward) in the short term, and what effects (if any) there could be because of that... not really a forecast They were quite a few mets saying that the more reliable model are showing the fast and poleward track. If that does not pan out I wonder like you just what type of forcast change would be needed and who may now be affected by emily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 If the center has been consistantly south, why are they forecasting such a sharp recurve? Former NWS employee told me that if a forecaster goes against the models they have to do a write up to explain their reasoning, particularly if the forecast goes wrong. I have no reason to assume that is not true considering most governmental/municiple jobs require that sort of accountability so why would NWS be any different. That said, not sure if the hurricane folk are subjected to the same work-related requirement but they probably are. That doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room or motivation to go against the models, does it. That said, I don't think the models are doing particularly bad with track here. Most of the guidance has been taking Emily over Hispanola - whether west or east bias, meh - splitting hairs. If we want to complain about the models, intensity was more problematic. 3 days ago many, in fact, most of the reliable runs were gung-ho for 80+kt well defined hurricane. None of which did very well with that. If Emily doesn't survive the big island and becomes an open wave after thought, it wouldn't appear that track guidance was ultimately the issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 RIP Emily Hopefully there's no disaster in Haiti because of her. Imagine retirement of this POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 If Emily has, in fact, degenerated into a tropical wave, will what is left of the LLC head west? Will the LLC dissipate or is there a chance for regeneration in the GOM if, in fact, the remnants head west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 That said, I don't think the models are doing particularly bad with track here. Most of the guidance has been taking Emily over Hispanola - whether west or east bias, meh - splitting hairs. If we want to complain about the models, intensity was more problematic. 3 days ago many, in fact, most of the reliable runs were gung-ho for 80+kt well defined hurricane. None of which did very well with that. If Emily doesn't survive the big island and becomes an open wave after thought, it wouldn't appear that track guidance was ultimately the issue here. Keep in mind that, for a while, most track guidance had Emily's center going right over the center of the island... over the highest peaks. Her center... or the rough location of where it was... still has not made landfall. That's the big issue with respect to model tracking. Now, with respect to it potentially opening to a wave, I'm going to say that enough dry flow made it off the island to collapse enough thunderstorms so that their respective cool downdrafts were able to disrupt Emily's circulation... not too much of a leap there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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