CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Dry air entering Emily from the NW once again... Hati is going to kill this system. East winds ahead of the storm are a downslope wind big time. I see this on MTPP now and then, especially with a high to the north. With this storm, it will just enhance the drier air to the nw, but you expect it with a TC interacting with mountainous terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Dry air entering Emily from the NW once again... Hati is going to kill this system. Well since the atmosphere around Emily is actually pretty moist now, the convection weakening is likely due to the down-sloping dry inflow that is going into the storm off the high mountain chain located to its north. Still not a good situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Well since the atmosphere around Emily is actually pretty moist now, the convection weakening is likely due to the down-sloping dry inflow that is going into the storm off the high mountain chain located to its north. Still not a good situation. Unless its just me, Emily finally seems to be moving NW, and at a decent clip too.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 the "XTRAP model" For the Win thus far...kickin arse and taking names: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 While this doesn't look to become a strong system, my brother-in-law and wife are leaving Baltimore Saturday on a cruise to Bermuda, arriving Monday. They might have to be eating some dramamine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 While this doesn't look to become a strong system, my brother-in-law and wife are leaving Baltimore Saturday on a cruise to Bermuda, arriving Monday. They might have to be eating some dramamine! They need to worry more about cold fronts than Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Latest Discussion is interesting... Avila doesn't know why the global models are dissipating the cyclone. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL. THE CYCLONE ISFORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA ANDEASTERN CUBA AND THAT IMPLIES WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...GLOBALMODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...AND OBVIOUSLY THESE MODELSCAN DETECT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT APPARENT TO ME.THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WITH SUCHINDICATIONS FROM THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHIPSAND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THIS HIGHDEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NOSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY...OR PERHAPS FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENINGAS THE CYCLONE MOVES BY HAITI AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE EMILY REACHES THE AREA OFTHE BAHAMAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The NHC track is fairly east of the model consensus it seems. I guess they are expecting the models to trend eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 the "XTRAP model" For the Win thus far...kickin arse and taking names: so you're thinking cancun should keep an eye on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 so you're thinking cancun should keep an eye on this? If it gets past 75º and is South of the G. Antilles, I will post my Wiki 1900 storm map. Unless threatened with a 5 post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The NHC track is fairly east of the model consensus it seems. I guess they are expecting the models to trend eastward. Actually their new forecast is on the west side of the model envelope, if you ignore any of the BAM suite and the LBAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Actually their new forecast is on the west side of the model envelope, if you ignore any of the BAM suite and the LBAR. Yeah, I just noticed this. It seems that if the storm takes longer to turn NW, it will make a sharper recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 If it gets past 75º and is South of the G. Antilles, I will post my Wiki 1900 storm map. Unless threatened with a 5 post. I kinda like the analog.. mostly because reality is so lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Whats really bothering me is why no one wants to talk about how the weakness in the ridge has been and still is forecast to lift out tonight/tomorrow allowing more ridging to form north of whatever is left of Emily. While the ensemble track cone is too far right in the image below, you can see the bend in the cone owing to the weakness in the near term, and then a bend back to the left in the 18-30 hour time frame owing to the lifting out of the weakness. It would seem to make sense to me that there should be some undulation in Emily's track as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Whats really bothering me is why no one wants to talk about how the weakness in the ridge has been and still is forecast to lift out tonight/tomorrow allowing more ridging to form north of whatever is left of Emily. While the ensemble track cone is too far right in the image below, you can see the bend in the cone owing to the weakness in the near term, and then a bend back to the left in the 18-30 hour time frame owing to the lifting out of the weakness. It would seem to make sense to me that there should be some undulation in Emily's track as such. Cool image, but the problem is that the ridge never really builds in all the way on the operational GFS along with much of the other model guidance, and the weakness becomes enhanced again after a weak upper level trough replaces the one that is lifting out. In a -NAO regime, a small impulse like the one seen below is all you need to suppress the subtropical ridge and force a sharp re-curvature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 More Clues??? Cimss 500mb--- 24hr loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Cool image, but the problem is that the ridge never really builds in all the way on the operational GFS along with much of the other model guidance, and the weakness becomes enhanced again after a weak upper level trough replaces the one that is lifting out. In a -NAO regime, a small impulse like the one seen below is all you need to suppress the subtropical ridge and force a sharp re-curvature. I will take the Ukie and the Euro current depiction of Emily's track (whatever is left)...no use for the GFS and any product that is based on the GFS background conditions and their massive poleward bias. Create a time series of heights over the next 0-60hrs in model world for about 30N and 77W...especially for the Euro and Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I will take the Ukie and the Euro current depiction of Emily's track (whatever is left)...no use for the GFS and any product that is based on the GFS background conditions and their massive poleward bias. Create a time series of heights over the next 0-60hrs in model world for about 30N and 77W...especially for the Euro and Ukie Then what was the meaning of posting the 06z GFS ensembles then? Are the different various perturbations making a substantial difference in indicating a track more leftward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 0z Euro is way too fast, IMO... it has the 850mb vortex nearing the central Bahamas in less than 10 hours. It also shows stronger ridging, so if we do the math: stronger ridge + slower cyclone = somewhere in Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Quick Video Update on Emily: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The best bet, of course, is to lean on the left side of the guidance consensus and discount the GFS' ridge underforecasting, especially since Emily has been extremely persistent in remaining to the left of the guidance consensus. With that said, I'm sticking to my guns in saying that if Emily does make landfall on Hispaniola, it will only be on the Tiburon peninsula. In terms of a recurve, I'm more concerned about the mountains of Cuba weakening Emily... which shouldn't be terrible since eastern Cuba's mountains aren't nearly as high as the center of Hispaniola. Avila's note on the intensity guidance in his discussion was interesting... I think the more or less steady state until Emily passes Hispaniola and Cuba is a good call, with potential strengthening afterwards. Recurve wise, I'm ready to make a more defined call... somewhere between the western Bahamas and the west coast of Florida... but it is all going to be dependent on what Emily does in the next 24-48 hours. The idea of the ridge rebuilding and shunting Emily westward, IMO, is a poor forecast... there is enough evidence in models to support a longer term future for the trough.. the question is how strong will the trough be, and where will it finally pick up Emily? The only way Emily gets anywhere near the central GOM is if the circulation and most of the convection dissipate completely, and that is extremely unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I will take the Ukie and the Euro current depiction of Emily's track (whatever is left)...no use for the GFS and any product that is based on the GFS background conditions and their massive poleward bias. Create a time series of heights over the next 0-60hrs in model world for about 30N and 77W...especially for the Euro and Ukie No offense, but the verification figure does not support the bolded statement at all. The operational GFS forecasts have exhibited the LEAST poleward biases of the models plotted in the figure (note that the UK has had the worst speed and across bias for 24 and 48 hour forecasts, as shown). Now, since this is a bias figure, this could be by accident if you have lots of +/- errors cancelling each other out....just pointing out that the figure you used doesn't support your claim at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 shocker, gfs 500 vort plot is farther left right into SE FL with ridge rebuilding..can see the 592 contour nicely building the "ridge bridge" better than prev run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 No offense, but the verification figure does not support the bolded statement at all. The operational GFS forecasts have exhibited the LEAST poleward biases of the models plotted in the figure (note that the UK has had the worst speed and across bias for 24 and 48 hour forecasts, as shown). Now, since this is a bias figure, this could be by accident if you have lots of +/- errors cancelling each other out....just pointing out that the figure you used doesn't support your claim at all. Also looks like yesterday's UKMET, as well as several previous runs, had a moderate (5-15 m) positive 500 mb height bias on the west side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The GFS has not had any bias recently in this region. Remember the UKMET has been forecasting a FL landfall all along, while the GFS has been amongst the easternmost guidance. I've been on the FL landfall train, but it might be time to hop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 shocker, gfs 500 vort plot is farther left right into SE FL with ridge rebuilding..can see the 592 contour nicely building the "ridge bridge" better than prev run Great, just as I concede to the east forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 shocker, gfs 500 vort plot is farther left right into SE FL with ridge rebuilding..can see the 592 contour nicely building the "ridge bridge" better than prev run Amazing what a little G-IV data from N of Haiti and the Keys can do, isn't it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Great, just as I concede to the east forecast. 850 mb vortex is weak and East of Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Amazing what a little G-IV data from N of Haiti and the Keys can do, isn't it... Hmm yea the 12z run was a substantial chance with a much stronger ridge... only major caveat is that there is practically no system post-Hispaniola. Beyond 48 hours the ridge does start to shift back southeast in recognition of the weak upper level trough, so if Emily still exists by this point it will be picked up beyond 25N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 ... the GFS has a very weak cyclone or wave stalling just off the FL coast for some time... and the ridge is stronger the further up you go in the atmosphere.... imagine what would a slightly stronger, and further S and W Emily do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 ... in the short term, the GFS has Emily in the Gulf of Gônave in less than 6 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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