lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Convection really firing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Feel bad for Haiti. They don't need this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 You misunderstood, as Hazel was not extratropical when it made landfall in the Carolinas; at that time it was still classified as a hurricane. Bless yer little heart. Because the landfall in the Carolinas was discussed here ... whatever.... you can have the last word on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Because the landfall in the Carolinas was discussed here ... whatever.... you can have the last word on this. I am sure if you made a sincere apology to all Carolinian members for calling their biggest hurricane of the last century "boring" and "extratropical" (your words), they will graciously accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Nice little ring of gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Emily has gained some latitude, let's see how much longitude has she traversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Nice little ring of gray. Can someone put an X on that satellite map exactly where the center is ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 ~17N 71.2W .... but it has weakened 1007mb extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Can someone put an X on that satellite map exactly where the center is ? A bit to the SW of the gray ring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 ~17N 71.2W .... but it has weakened 1007mb extrapolated Not to the center yet, the only wind shift there was from SE to SSW while the plane is moving west. Center is west of there Otherwise, very heavy rainfall rates in the deep convection east of the center, 82 mm/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Surface pressure went up but multiple 50 kt and a few 55 kt un-flagged SFMR reports in the NE Quad. EDIT: The rain-rates are impressive too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Click here to view my updated Emily forecast/discussion: http://impactweather.wordpress.com/ Reader's Digest Version: Am forecasting significant weakening over land and almost 24 hours near or over land due to the more westerly motion than has been expected. Am forecasting slow re-organization after emerging north of Cuba, although this is now uncertain because the low level circulation is still nearly exposed and the 12z ECM/0z GFS both dissipate Emily's low level circulation, which needs to be taken into consideration. If Emily can remain somewhat intact over land during the next day or so it should still recurve, but the westward motion today and continued under modeling of southern US ridging now puts Florida at risk of being directly impacted by whatever is left of Emily. Georgia through the Carolinas could be grazed. No risk to east coast north of Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Not to the center yet, the only wind shift there was from SE to SSW while the plane is moving west. Center is west of there Otherwise, very heavy rainfall rates in the deep convection east of the center, 82 mm/hr. 1006mb ... 71.4W... not very organized still... drifting W or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The 2 am advisory position indicates it's still moving W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Per microwave images (which are a few hours old) and recon, Emily's surface circulation is still running west of the convection. I could possibly see an increase in winds to 50 knots before landfall given some of the obs coming in from the eastern quadrants, but nothing more, this isn't rapidly intensifying or anything like that... Center location per recon fixes on top of recent satellite imagery: (yes, I know my tropical storm symbol made in MS Paint is just fantastic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD so one quadrant is rapidly developing tropical storm force winds? that's nuts, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I think an interesting possibility that hasn't been brought up yet is that this could reform to the east due to the huge convective complex in that part of the storm. Convergence is clearly much higher in that complex as opposed to the current center, so it may capture the center soon enough. I'm fairly sure the convective blowup tonight is significantly driven by the interaction of the circulation with Hispaniola (frictional convergence/blocking), so things may look better than they actually are. Per my thoughts earlier today As convection continues to increase over the center, we should see this thing move more poleward soon, although the latest recon still indicates the center is on the western side of the convection, indicating its still not aligned with the mid level center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Per my thoughts earlier today As convection continues to increase over the center, we should see this thing move more poleward soon, although the latest recon still indicates the center is on the western side of the convection, indicating its still not aligned with the mid level center. Ahh.. now I understand what you are getting at. Basically the friction will "pull" it northward and past the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Ahh.. now I understand what you are getting at. Basically the friction will "pull" it northward and past the islands. No... I think what him and turtle are trying to say is that friction on land will enhance convection, and that if convection blows up over the center the center will be pulled poleward by the slightly deeper steering currents, which are more northwesterly than the near surface steering currents. With surface ridging still in place north of Emily (but with the heart of the ridging east of the system) the very low level steering currents that will steer a shallow circulation like Emily's (due to the vortex not being stacked vertically) is slightly north of due west. The steering currents a little higher up are more northwesterly (or from the southeast) as there is a larger weakness in the ridging aloft. If deep convection can become directly associated with the surface circulation, it will make the surface circulation deeper and more prone to be steered northward by the mid level winds. Edit: Maybe I'm off based on Phil's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Ahh.. now I understand what you are getting at. Basically the friction will "pull" it northward and past the islands. That's part of the equation. The other is that a vortex will tend to gravitate towards the area that has the greatest surface convergence occurring as long as the center is close enough. We saw evidence of this phenomena this afternoon when the low level vortex stalled and started meandering as convection developed over the circulation. Latest soundings over Hispaniola show that the northerly 300mb flow has abated, which is likely helped to keep convection over the center this evening allow convection to moisten up the atmosphere for more hot towers and continuing the positive feedback loop to allow more convective development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 No... I think what him and turtle are trying to say is that friction on land will enhance convection, and that if convection blows up over the center the center will be pulled poleward by the slightly deeper steering currents, which are more northwesterly than the near surface steering currents. Well it works on three levels... the first of which is that frictional convergence helps to enhance convection, when in turn tends to pull a vortex closer to the area of maximum convergence. This is the first way this could cause Emily to move more north, but tends to be a temporary motion rather than something driven in steering currents. The second effect is the one you alluded to. As deep convection blossoms over the center it attempts to become vertically aligned with the low level circulation. If this occurs, then the storm becomes more vertically deep and steering currents in a larger column of the atmosphere need to be taken into account. The third effect is that land interaction itself tends to pull a cyclone in the direction of the land since it slows down the wind on the side of the cyclone that is experiencing the land interaction due to friction. This works most effectively in storms that are moving slowly under weak steering currents. A great example is Isidore in 2002. Thus if the first two effects draw Emily close to Hispaniola, then this third effect may occur and pull the center inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Looks like Recon is leaving already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I think we have to call a spade a spade- this is another weak-a&& nothing of a system. The new Global models have very little development, in fact most have basically nothing- it is totally absent on the new Euro. The continued lack of any sort of organization when it is over water does not bode well for when it actually crosses land, would not be surprised to see it become an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I think we have to call a spade a spade- this is another weak-a&& nothing of a system. The new Global models have very little development, in fact most have basically nothing- it is totally absent on the new Euro. The continued lack of any sort of organization when it is over water does not bode well for when it actually crosses land, would not be surprised to see it become an open wave. I tend to agree. I'm pretty shocked that NHC's new discussion does not even mention any chance that it degenerates into an open wave, nor leaves open the chance that it can shift any more westward by virtue of staying weak. Maybe neither one happens and they turn out right. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FORSOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. 000URNT12 KNHC 041119 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011 A. 04/10:58:00Z B. 17 deg 04 min N 071 deg 49 min W C. 850 mb 1463 m D. 44 kt E. 079 deg 17 nm F. 156 deg 52 kt G. 053 deg 14 nm H. 1005 mb I. 17 C / 1498 m J. 19 C / 1524 m K. 13 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 1105A EMILY OB 02 MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 10:50:30Z MAX FL TEMP 20 C 007 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Trying to organize, although the recon shows that the center is still loosely organized to the west of that banding feature on microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 12:04Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011 Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 11 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:37:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°08'N 71°53'W (17.1333N 71.8833W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 102 miles (164 km) to the SSE (163°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,452m (4,764ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the W (264°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 316° at 26kts (From the NW at ~ 29.9mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Wind Outbound: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the east quadrant at 11:52:20Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the east quadrant at 11:52:20Z http://tropicalatlan.../recon/#gerecon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Here are my updated thoughts on Emily this morning... I'm not sure it is going to survive Hispaniola but if it does, it still will have to fight some shear before it can get to a more favorable environment in about 72 hours. I also continue to be firmly in the camp that this does not affect the East Coast directly and swings back out to sea, and I see the latest model guidance has shifted significantly east towards my forecast track I made yesterday. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/08/04/emily-remains-disorganized-should-cross-haiti-today/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Dry air entering Emily from the NW once again... Hati is going to kill this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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