Remnants of Emily Part II: 295 Miles SSE Of Cape Hatteras, NC

[Srain]

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THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS VERY SLOW...TOWARD THE WEST OR 280

DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS USING A LONG-TERM AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT

TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER. THE GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TURNING

EMILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL

MODELS THROUGH THAT TIME DUE TO THE SLOW INITIAL MOTION. AFTER 36

HOURS...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURN

NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE

FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH BOTH THE DETAILS OF THE STEERING FEATURES

AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE MODEL FIELDS. OVERALL...

THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO

72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

AT THOSE TIMES. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...EMILY SHOULD ACCELERATE QUICKLY

NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THE NEW

FORECAST AT THOSE TIMES IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

NHC FORECAST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN

NORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL STRUCTURAL

CHANGES OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE NEXT

24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE

FROM RUN TO RUN. IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN

SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE

CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

WILL INCREASE.

[HurricaneFrances04]

11 pm track slightly east of the model consensus. Guess the NHC doesn't wanna play the windshield wiper game with the models.

[sctvman]

Some of the people were saying on local TV that the storm was going out to sea. I don't know if that will be the case.

[Thunder Road]

0z GFS outruns the llc, at hr 18 there's a 1010 mb Low on the eastern tip of Cuba with the convection hitting Haiti and the DR hard. By hr 24 it's an open wave.

[k***]

Some of the people were saying on local TV that the storm was going out to sea. I don't know if that will be the case.

Oh yeah?

[toad strangler]

for the moment anyway

[HurricaneJosh]

11 pm track slightly east of the model consensus. Guess the NHC doesn't wanna play the windshield wiper game with the models.

Exactly.

The NHC is generally-- and correctly-- very conservative about shifting the forecast track, and what you'll often see is that the models do the windshield-wiper thing while the forecast tracks stay in the middle somewhere. And there's the additional uncertainty in this case Re: land interaction, which in turn can cause center reformation and other things that complicate the track forecast.

This having been said, if the models stay more left for a couple of runs-- showing a real trend and not just the typical windshield-wiper thing-- the forecast will shift accordingly.

A lot of this is common knowledge, but I think it's worth repeating in this case.

[negative-nao]

[Ian]

With all the ridge talk I remember finding it interesting that Bill Read highlighted needing more research on upper highs at the conference. Perhaps that's something that is talked about often and I've missed it. It did stick out to me when he said it though. Often you get the sense that the ridge is the piece of the puzzle that's about the easiest to determine, but clearly in these -- what can be hairline -- cases it is not.

[Riptide]

That convection is really going to town. I suppose if you follow the LLC, you reach a point SE of the Pedernales peninsula. It would be solidly under the convection.

[turtlehurricane]

I will be very surprised if this has an organized low-level reflection after crossing Hispaniola/Cuba. I don't think it's possible for it to avoid the mountains either. There's less than 48 hours between it leaving Cuba and it's closest approach to Florida too, not all that much time for what will be a very disheveled system.

[HurricaneJosh]

With all the ridge talk I remember finding it interesting that Bill Read highlighted needing more research on upper highs at the conference. Perhaps that's something that is talked about often and I've missed it. It did stick out to me when he said it though. Often you get the sense that the ridge is the piece of the puzzle that's about the easiest to determine, but clearly in these -- what can be hairline -- cases it is not.

The other interesting point from his talk that's applicable here is the subjectivity involved in judging whether a forecast is "good" or not. If the cyclone is way out to sea, the forecast recurve can be 100 mi too far to the E and it will be perceived as a decent forecast. On the other hand, forecasting a cyclone to move through the Bahamas and then having it come 100 mi further W (and hitting FL) would be perceived as a major bust.

These Floydish tracks-- where the cyclone does a recurve that roughly parallels the FL-to-NC coastal curve-- seriously suck-- for forecasters and chasers alike.

[MJW155]

Hey Josh,

You going to chase if this is forcasted to make landfall in Florida?

[HurricaneJosh]

I will be very surprised if this has an organized low-level reflection after crossing Hispaniola/Cuba. I don't think it's possible for it to avoid the mountains either. There's less than 48 hours between it leaving Cuba and it's closest approach to Florida too, not all that much time for what will be a very disheveled system.

I basically agree, but important variables here are 1) the organization before it passes over land and 2) which parts of Shredderola and Cuba it passes over. If it's well-organized leading up to landfall and just passes over the narrow part of Haiti, the post-island scenario could be more interestin'.

[Ian]

The other interesting point from his talk that's applicable here is the subjectivity involved in judging whether a forecast is "good" or not. If the cyclone is way out to sea, the forecast recurve can be 100 mi too far to the E and it will be perceived as a decent forecast. On the other hand, forecasting a cyclone to move through the Bahamas-- and then having it come 100 mi further W (and hitting FL) would be perceived as a major bust.

These Floydish tracks-- where the cyclone does a recurve that roughly parallels the FL-to-NC coastal curve-- seriously suck-- for forecasters and chasers alike.

Yeah, true. In many ways they go hand in hand. People just don't care as much when it's way out there.

Good place to plug vid.. still only has 100 views! :< Meat starts around 25 min in:

[Ian]

Hey Josh,

You going to chase if this is forcasted to make landfall in Florida?

Hopefully it's just laying the tracks for the bigger ones later.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey Josh,

You going to chase if this is forcasted to make landfall in Florida?

It would depend on 1) how well the models are clustered and how consistently they show a FL hit and 2) the forecast intensity. Granted, I was already in TX for Don and didn't have to travel for it-- that one fell in my lap-- but I'm feeling a little pee-shy after getting burned by that one.

[MJW155]

It would depend on 1) how well the models are clustered and how consistently they show a FL hit and 2) the forecast intensity. Granted, I was already in TX for Don and didn't have to travel for it-- that one fell in my lap-- but I'm feeling a little pee-shy after getting burned by that one.

Yea I don't blame you.

If I remember correctly, you said you'd like to be in the Keys for a hurricane? Doesn't look like that would happen in this case.

[turtlehurricane]

I basically agree, but important variables here are 1) the organization before it passes over land and 2) which parts of Shredderola and Cuba it passes over. If it's well-organized leading up to landfall and just passes over the narrow part of Haiti, the post-island scenario could be more interestin'.

Well, I feel like right now is about as organized as it'll be pre-Hispaniola. And that narrow part of shredderola is a high mountain range, many 2000 m+ peaks according to this map http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Hispaniola_lrg.jpg

That sort of topography would destroy pretty much any low-level vortex. I really wouldn't be surprised to see this thing dissipate within 24 hours, perhaps a 50/50 chance imo.

[turtlehurricane]

I think an interesting possibility that hasn't been brought up yet is that this could reform to the east due to the huge convective complex in that part of the storm. Convergence is clearly much higher in that complex as opposed to the current center, so it may capture the center soon enough.

I'm fairly sure the convective blowup tonight is significantly driven by the interaction of the circulation with Hispaniola (frictional convergence/blocking), so things may look better than they actually are.

[David Reimer]

I think an interesting possibility that hasn't been brought up yet is that this could reform to the east due to the huge convective complex in that part of the storm. Convergence is clearly much higher in that complex as opposed to the current center, so it may capture the center soon enough.

I'm fairly sure the convective blowup tonight is significantly driven by the interaction of the circulation with Hispaniola (frictional convergence/blocking), so things may look better than they actually are.

This storm reminds me of a certain tease storm that had three letters and started with F.

[snowman22]

This storm reminds me of a certain tease storm that had three letters and started with F.

What is Fay? For 200 Alex!!

[lakeeffectkid383]

What is Fay? For 200 Alex!!

Fay was awesome, I would love to see another fay.

[dan88]

Should get a better idea of what is happening under the the convection shortly, Recon descending to mission altitude.

[snowman22]

Fay was awesome, I would love to see another fay.

Yeah, that was the best Tropical Storm i've been through with the exception of Arlene in '05. I've never seen a storm go up through FL then just turn W into GA and AL it was sweet!

[HurricaneJosh]

Should get a better idea of what is happening under the the convection shortly, Recon descending to mission altitude.

Cool-- it will be interesting to see what they come up with in this pass. Hopefully the findings will end discussion of some of the more boring past storms.

[wxmx]

Cool-- it will be interesting to see what they come up with in this pass. Hopefully the findings will end discussion of some of the more boring past storms.

So Hazel was a boring storm.... noted.

[HurricaneJosh]

So Hazel was a boring storm.... noted.

You misunderstood. Discussion Re: interesting and historically significant cyclones is of course welcomed.

(How funny that you'd think Hazel-- one of the most important mid-century American 'canes-- was boring. A cultural bias, perhaps? )

[wxmx]

You misunderstood. Discussion Re: interesting and historically significant cyclones is of course welcomed.

(How funny that you'd think Hazel-- one of the most important mid-century American 'canes-- was boring. A cultural bias, perhaps? )

You misunderstood, I wasn't the one that said that the previously discussed storms in the thread were boring. Everybody knows your elitism and feelings about extratropical storms.

[HurricaneJosh]

You misunderstood, I wasn't the one that said that the previously discussed storms in the thread were boring. Everybody knows your elitism and feelings about extratropical storms.

You misunderstood, as Hazel was not extratropical when it made landfall in the Carolinas; at that time it was still classified as a hurricane.

Bless yer little heart.