#NoPoles Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Apparently, recon found frequent lightning near the core/LLC. Pretty interesting. 000 URNT11 KNHC 040008 97779 23514 40160 69740 15300 17020 17069 /2508 RMK AF306 0805A EMILY OB 24 FREQUENT LTG IN TS LOCATED 060 AT 15 too bad you weren't at the conference...this came up in a presentation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 At least the cirrus shield is expanding to the nw, so we have some weakening of nw winds impeding on the system. All of the G-IV dropsondes that I have looked at on the north side of the system all have 300 mb winds below 10 kts and none of the vectors are from the NW direction. They are all either combination's of East, South or West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Wagons west. Slower motion and center relocation just allows more time for western Atlantic weakness to lift out and "ridge bridge" to reform. Sensing cone of uncertainty fail and this means what IYO ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I'm taking a break from exercising at a park, so I don't have much time... Did Emily basically get wobbled towards its convection and now is heading back more westish? If so, that's about what I figured it was doing... The lightning near the llc was an interesting development... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 and this means what IYO ? Look at you-- like a pup on his hind legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Also from recon Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I think we are going to see some major adjustments to the NHC track over the next few advisories....and I'm wondering now if my track over the next 24 hours is too far east! The short term modeling has been below par, IMO....just 1.5 days ago, the model consensus was to have Emily a good 200 miles further to the wnw. And I concur with gibbs that with the slower motion as of late, is what would be required (without the NW turn) to have the chances for a more westward track to occur. The intensity, also now (with the G-IV drops showing a diminishment in the northerly shear) certainly has a chance to increase beyond what the thinking was, just 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Lots of wx nerds are getting major wood now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The center stall is not surprising. When it finally does resume it's motion it will likely to be significantly more poleward than before as it becomes more verically aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I think we are going to see some major adjustments to the NHC track over the next few advisories....and I'm wondering now if my track over the next 24 hours is too far east! The short term modeling has been below par, IMO....just 1.5 days ago, the model consensus was to have Emily a good 200 miles further to the wnw. And I concur with the gibbs that with the slower motion as of late, is what would be required (without the NW turn) to have the chances for a more westward track to occur. The intensity, also now (with the G-IV drops showing a diminishment in the northerly shear) certainly has a chance to increase beyond what the thinking was, just 6 hours ago. I agree with most of what you said, although your track/w coast of Florida track is certainly fair game still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Lots of wx nerds are getting major wood now. Tropi-chubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Tropi-chubs Convectionaries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 This is a picture of Ernesto south of Hispaniola, in about the same position that Emily is in now. It's striking how similar they look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 NAM 0z has ingested 9 RECCO reports from the Hurricane Hunters and 14 of the 30 Dropsondes from the G-IV have made it in on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 NAM 0z has ingested 9 RECCO reports from the Hurricane Hunters and 14 of the 28 Dropsondes from the G-IV have made it in on time. And the GFS...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 NAM 0z has ingested 9 RECCO reports from the Hurricane Hunters and 14 of the 28 Dropsondes from the G-IV have made it in on time. Which should get the NAM's value all the way up to the NoGAPS! j/k... If you want to use the NAM, first and foremost, look at the features in the mid latitudes (and any trends) that may have an effect as Emily gets more poleward....the solutions directly outputted for TC's are horrendously fickle from a run to run perspective, thus of low value to a forecaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 And the GFS...? GFS initialization hasn't started yet... It normally starts at 2:46:13z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 GFS initialization hasn't started yet... It normally starts at 2:46:13z lol...the data ingest dude. I believe I am aware of guidance run times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 lol...the data ingest dude. I believe I am aware of guidance run times... Oh, they don't publish that data until the info dump and prep is done. Here is the source of where I got it from.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/realtime/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Mine just shifted 30 degrees to starboard. Reunion in PBI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Jim Cantore is sorta jumping on board he said "as this thing moves more westward we may have to include the gulf in the cone" he also went on to talk about ridge and how big it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Reunion in PBI? <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wub.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Hanging out in the LFQ is for lames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 GFS (as well as other models) have consistantly been modeling the CONUS ridge too weak: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/gfs0012loop500.html Note that the GFS hasn't modeled a 594 countour once over the last 4 on hour runs, nor does it have the heights over FL modeled correctly....subtle, but important....this is a PIG ARSE ridge!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 This track plot is one noodle lacking on the western front from hanging a big ol we have NO FOOKING CLUE neon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 GFS (as well as other models) have consistantly been modeling the CONUS ridge too weak: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/gfs0012loop500.html Note that the GFS hasn't modeled a 594 countour once over the last 4 on hour runs, nor does it have the heights over FL modeled correctly....subtle, but important....this is a PIG ARSE ridge!! I'm not surprised at all. The models have been consistent in undermodeling the ridge, and the GFS is most egregious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 My guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 I see Wes lurking. Perhaps a thought or two before the update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Not using the NAM as a tropical model, and the useful thing, it almost entirely loses Emily at 60 hours, so it has no big 500 mb low to make the flow around Emily, if it is still there, cyclonic, and best I can tell, if Emily is near Florida at 60 hours, NAM 500 mb forecast is generally from the SE towards Florida. yes, I know the NAM isn't a tropical model, but I may not be able to stay up for real models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 02Z ASCAT descending... That pass is from 13Z this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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