wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Appears latest recon center fix is SE of previous fix, around 16.5, 70.3 hummm...no, it was a bit NNE of the previous one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Latest HWRF shows a somewhat significant shift west. Brushes the Broward County coast and comes very close to landfall around West Palm Beach where it starts to recurve NE. Even though the GFS and ECMWF were pathetic regarding intensity, I'm definitely liking the track trend toward South Florida. I want the rain! ETA: Keeps going WNW into the Treasure Coast and doesn't recurve. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Yep, never mind. Was reading the transmission times too quickly on Google Earth. hummm...no, it was a bit NNE of the previous one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Latest HWRF shows a somewhat significant shift west. Brushes the Broward County coast and comes very close to landfall around West Palm Beach where it starts to recurve NE. Even though the GFS and ECMWF were pathetic regarding intensity, I'm definitely liking the track trend toward South Florida. I want the rain! ETA: Keeps going WNW into the Treasure Coast and doesn't recurve. Interesting. See my location. Weenie post Mod delete. I think the end story with this crappy little TC in the end will be the defiant W and S track and a lot has to be said about how much more accurate general guidance would have been had Emily become a real TC well before now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Convection is finally expanding nicely, and it seems the center has shifted towards it. Still on the western part of the blob, but it's looking healthier (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Convection is finally expanding nicely, and it seems the center has shifted towards it. Still on the western part of the blob, but it's looking healthier (again). Just in time to pull it into Haiti and either badly weaken it or kill it, if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Reorganizing... latest fix to the WSW of the previous one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 8:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 Location: 16.9°N 70.6°W Max sustained: 50 mph Moving: Stationary Min pressure: 1004 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Reorganizing... latest fix to the WSW of the previous one. Honestly the 22:30Z center fix looks a bit dubious given the relative continuity between all the others. Maybe there are multiple swirls under the convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It apparently did produce sustained hurricane winds in MD and the DC Metro area, but as kush pointed out, Hazel was not a hurricane or even a tropical cyclone by that point-- it was an intense extratropical storm. The transitional process was way over by the time it got up there. Hazel was probably starting its transition even as it came ashore in the Carolinas. Okay; DC didn't have a hurricane. Happy now? Crimany, talk about being anal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Microwave suggest some organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Okay; DC didn't have a hurricane. Happy now? Crimany, talk about being anal. Well, DC did have a hurricane with winds over 100MPH before so its not so outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 This new reorganization phase could signal a starting point of intensification for Emily. I know that land interaction actually helped Fay's LLC in 2008. The HWRF and GFDL are too strong but may not be too far off ultimately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Okay; DC didn't have a hurricane. Happy now? Crimany, talk about being anal. It's not "being anal" to us historians who pore over cyclone history to try to understand the magnitude of past events and what happened exactly. We can only know what's possible in the future by having a realistic grasp of the past. Sorry it's so academic to you; to me it's fascinating. P.S. We can all agree that Hazel's remnant cyclone really hammered DC with very high winds. No argument there. Well, DC did have a hurricane with winds over 100MPH before so its not so outlandish. Really? When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It's not "being anal" to us historians who pore over cyclone history to try to understand the magnitude of past events and what happened exactly. We can only know what's possible in the future by having a realistic grasp of what's happened previously. Sorry it's so academic to you; to me it's fascinating. Really? When? George Washington recorded it in his journal. It destroyed his vineyard apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 George Washington recorded it in his journal. It destroyed his vineyard apparently. That far back, we can only speculate on wind speeds. A vineyard being destroyed of course isn't evidence of a specific wind speed, however much it impressed George Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 It's not "being anal" to us historians who pore over cyclone history to try to understand the magnitude of past events and what happened exactly. We can only know what's possible in the future by having a realistic grasp of the past. Sorry it's so academic to you; to me it's fascinating. P.S. We can all agree that Hazel's remnant cyclone really hammered DC with very high winds. No argument there. Really? When? 1878 October 23 Not Named. A Category 2 hurricane hit the Washington/Baltimore region. This is the strongest storm to ever hit this region since record-keeping began in 1851. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/hurricane_history/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/hurricane_history/index.htm NWS records are uneven across the board, and you'll often find out-of-date info on the Websites of various NWS offices-- so I don't blame you for making this error. This is the definitive source Re: historic cyclone impacts, as it reflects the recent reanalysis verdicts by the NHC: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html This cyclone is considered a Cat 2 in NC and and a Cat 1 in the rest of the Mid-Atlantic (MD, VA, PA, DE, and NJ (and I imagine DC)). So, it was a significant impact for the region, but modern reanalysis indicates this was not a Cat 2 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/galeof78.htm ...has more information on this system. Some of this information was included within the HURDAT reanalysis several years ago. Didn't mean to continue to post off topic... http://www.erh.noaa....story/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/galeof78.htm ...has more information on this system. Some of this information was included within the HURDAT reanalysis several years ago. Didn't mean to continue to post off topic... Cool link, and see my post above. For the record, it is considered a Cat-1 impact in the Mid-Atlantic states. Sorry to go OT, everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 For Sh*ts and giggles, the 18Z GFDL has a landfalling hurricane near Fr. Lauderdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Back to Emily, that MW image above is interesting. That's the best it's looked on MW imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Latest HWRF and GFDL just brought back my interest in this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Latest HWRF and GFDL just brought back my interest in this.. Why? What's it show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Why? What's it show HWRF GFDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 That's a tight little cyclone the HWRF shows. Hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Convection continues to expand substantially over Emily. The CoC is probably still under the western portion or edge of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Convection continues to expand substantially over Emily. The CoC is probably still under the western portion or edge of convection. At least the cirrus shield is expanding to the nw, so we have some weakening of nw winds impeding on the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Apparently, recon found frequent lightning near the core/LLC. Pretty interesting. 000 URNT11 KNHC 040008 97779 23514 40160 69740 15300 17020 17069 /2508 RMK AF306 0805A EMILY OB 24 FREQUENT LTG IN TS LOCATED 060 AT 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Wagons west. Slower motion and center relocation just allows more time for western Atlantic weakness to lift out and "ridge bridge" to reform. Sensing cone of uncertainty fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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