Mencken_Fan Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Actually, I bet the "XTRAP model" is doing unusually well relative to other models than it typically does. LOL Best post of the Emily thread so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Recon just made another pass through... pressure is still 1003mb, but the new position is northwest of the last observation. Emily is starting to get pulled into the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 Location: 16.9°N 71.0°W Max sustained: 50 mph Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Thanks for that explanation from a casual observer of this board. Interesting and never actually knew the basis from which the cone was created. The cone is made by 2/3 probability circles. "The entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time." Statistically speaking, there is ~33% chance that any given Atlantic storm will track outside of the cone. This assumes all the storms are uniform and does not take into account the forecast uncertainty, as you stated. http://www.nhc.noaa....aboutcone.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011 SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON... AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 31.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $ FORECASTER AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The recon data don't really support a 45 kt current intensity IMO. Edit: There were some 40+ kt unflagged SFMR earlier. Although 45 kt might be a little generous, it's understandable for continuity's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 One thing that is certain: It will be bigger than Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I'll bet y'all ate up this line like hungry dogs at feeding time: HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE. Control yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It's always interesting to me how the east Pacific waters pump out category 4 'canes like this yet it's pulling teeth to get systems like Emily to seem even justified. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Avila must be referencing the 12 hour motion in the 5pm discussion, because the last three recon passes don't support the 280 degree /12 knot motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 LOL...thanks. I'll bet y'all ate up this line like hungry dogs at feeding time: HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE. Control yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It's always interesting to me how the east Pacific waters pump out category 4 'canes like this yet it's pulling teeth to get systems like Emily to seem even justified. wow. Dry air is killer in the ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I'll bet y'all ate up this line like hungry dogs at feeding time: HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE. Control yourselves. LOL, hell yea. I've been here 3 years and haven't seen **** yet. Bonnie doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Marked improvement in microwave presentation over the past few hours... I'm still liking my call from earlier. Earlier: Recently: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I lived in southern Florida in the 1970's, 1980's, as well as summers during the early 1990's. David 1979 approached Miami, Iris 1989 sheared apart as it approached due to Hugo's outflow, a couple tropical storms (Isidore 1984 and Bob 1985) went overhead, and a few numbered tropical depressions (as well as Alberto 1982 and Barry 1983) dumped some rain on us. I missed Andrew 1992 by a week, but was glad I did, even though West Boca was on the periphery of its hurricane-force gusts. I'm proud to say that I've never experienced true hurricane conditions, and as long as I live near DC, I'm pretty sure I won't. The last time we got hurricane-force gusts from a tropical cyclone was in October 1954 (Hazel), which barely beat the record from October 1878. LOL, hell yea. I've been here 3 years and haven't seen **** yet. Bonnie doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Dry air is killer in the ATL Pretty much... SAL was undressing this thing days ago, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 18Z GFS further west and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I'm proud to say that I've never experienced true hurricane conditions, and as long as I live near DC, I'm pretty sure I won't. The last time we got hurricane-force gusts from a tropical cyclone was in October 1954 (Hazel), which barely beat the record from October 1878. DC sucks, hard to get anything with the configuration of the coastline and general synoptical pattern that speeds storms up and takes them out to sea. To see anything over Cat1 conditions it would take an unusual bend in the pattern/deep trough in the Jet stream & an unusually powerful 'cane near the Bahamas to get caught up & speed into a NC landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 18Z GFS further west and weaker. The first few frames of the GFS finally make a bit of sense... but after that, it goes to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Avila must be referencing the 12 hour motion in the 5pm discussion, because the last three recon passes don't support the 280 degree /12 knot motion. Another fix, and it's slowly gaining latitude. Some reorganization looks to be happening, since it has slowed down too. Lots of convection on the eastern half. It appears that Emily will live one more day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The first few frames of the GFS finally make a bit of sense... but after that, it goes to hell. Death by Shredderola. It looks very similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The first few frames of the GFS finally make a bit of sense... but after that, it goes to hell. Just through 84 hours, but you don't think it may open back into a wave/very badly organized TD and try to approach Florida? Ok, curving out at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I lived in southern Florida in the 1970's, 1980's, as well as summers during the early 1990's. David 1979 approached Miami, Iris 1989 sheared apart as it approached due to Hugo's outflow, a couple tropical storms (Isidore 1984 and Bob 1985) went overhead, and a few numbered tropical depressions (as well as Alberto 1982 and Barry 1983) dumped some rain on us. I missed Andrew 1992 by a week, but was glad I did, even though West Boca was on the periphery of its hurricane-force gusts. I'm proud to say that I've never experienced true hurricane conditions, and as long as I live near DC, I'm pretty sure I won't. The last time we got hurricane-force gusts from a tropical cyclone was in October 1954 (Hazel), which barely beat the record from October 1878. Just a quick note: DC had more than just hurricane force gusts, it had a hurricane. Hazel in DC produced 78mph with gusts to 92mph. I was there at the time (Bethesda), but was only three years old so of course don't remember it; but my mother said it scared the crap out of her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL335 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011 .DISCUSSION... FRI-SUN...FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE LATEST 18Z NHC FORECAST TRACKS EMILY FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF CUBA NORTHWEST INTO THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. FROM THERE EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND REMAIN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL STORM FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. AS THE FORECAST TRACK STANDS AS OF 18Z...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PERHAPS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It still looks like Emily may have a chance, to be a good fish storm. Still not sure how well it will do once it hits land, storm will look very messy I could see it as a td for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Just a quick note: DC had more than just hurricane force gusts, it had a hurricane. Hazel in DC produced 78mph with gusts to 92mph. I was there at the time (Bethesda), but was only three years old so of course don't remember it; but my mother said it scared the crap out of her. Storms undergoing extratropical transition don't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 So far the 18Z HWRF looks a little SW of the 12Z run. Center doesn't look exposed (atm at least) and the latest recon VDM was northeast of the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Just a quick note: DC had more than just hurricane force gusts, it had a hurricane. Hazel in DC produced 78mph with gusts to 92mph. I was there at the time (Bethesda), but was only three years old so of course don't remember it; but my mother said it scared the crap out of her. It apparently did produce sustained hurricane winds in MD and the DC Metro area, but as kush pointed out, Hazel was not a hurricane or even a tropical cyclone by that point-- it was an intense extratropical storm. Storms undergoing extratropical transition don't count The transitional process was way over by the time it got up there. Hazel was probably starting its transition even as it came ashore in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Appears latest recon center fix is SE of previous fix, around 16.5, 70.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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