dan88 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Recon found a 1003.2mb extrap. from 850mb, so pressure is still not rising significantly yet with the expose swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The 12Z GFDL is slightly to the west compared with the 00Z GFDL. However, it is substantially stronger than the 00Z GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:24 PM, snowman22 said: I just dont see how its gonna hit Haiti...I think its more in line to hit Cuba or, it could got between Cuba and Haiti. The only way it could miss both is to stay south of Cuba altogether. It wouldn't go between them from where it is now. It still has plenty of time to hit Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:24 PM, snowman22 said: I just dont see how its gonna hit Haiti...I think its more in line to hit Cuba or, it could got between Cuba and Haiti. I've been leaning more towards western parts of eastern Cuba. On 8/3/2011 at 6:26 PM, Mallow said: Maybe, but when I said "NE of the center", I meant the strongest growth of convection just NE of the center. Not the stuff over and southeast of Hispaniola. Seems a bit too far away from the island to be frictional convergence due to land... maybe just enough lift from an outflow boundary from the collapsing thunderstorms just to the west? Oops.... I thought you were talking about the band that was further away.... the one that is closer is probably being helped by the dying blob to the south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily peaks @ 110 kts on the GFDL....really? Looking at this LLC, it probably has the potential. TC's have a history of intensifying near Southeastern Florida. Andrew, labor day cane, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:34 PM, Riptide said: Emily peaks @ 110 kts on the GFDL....really? Looking at this LLC, it probably has the potential. TC's have a history of intensifying near Southeastern Florida. Andrew, labor day cane, etc. GFDL vs. Euro/UKMet. Tough decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:31 PM, Hugo89 said: The only way it could miss both is to stay south of Cuba altogether. It wouldn't go between them from where it is now. It still has plenty of time to hit Haiti. From the last advisory point it would need a 285 motion...from where the estimated center is from recon, that increases to about 290...and I don't think Emily has come even close to that in the last 12hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:37 PM, am19psu said: GFDL vs. Euro/UKMet. Tough decisions. Agreed. Definitely the toughest storm to forecast of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:38 PM, Snowlover123 said: Agreed. Definitely the toughest storm to forecast of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season by far. While I agree it is a tough forecast, I feel pretty confident in saying that it won't be a 110 kt hurricane off S FL like the GFDL is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Lowest pressure found by recon was 1003 mb at 16.8 N 70.4 W. Due west of the 2 pm position by .1 degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The convection that was NE of Emily has finally moved on top of the exposed Low Level Circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:40 PM, am19psu said: While I agree it is a tough forecast, I feel pretty confident in saying that it won't be a 110 kt hurricane off S FL like the GFDL is showing. We should have a new rule... unless it is already a hurricane that is clearly developing, we can probably ignore GFDL/HWRF intensity solutions... the exception being of course if neither develop a system at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:34 PM, Riptide said: Emily peaks @ 110 kts on the GFDL....really? Looking at this LLC, it probably has the potential. TC's have a history of intensifying near Southeastern Florida. Andrew, labor day cane, etc. For each Andrew, there are 4 or 5 Bonnies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:40 PM, am19psu said: While I agree it is a tough forecast, I feel pretty confident in saying that it won't be a 110 kt hurricane off S FL like the GFDL is showing. Haha yeah, the GFDL and the HWRF often do that a lot, where they will intensify a Tropical Cyclone too much. I think they even intensified Don to a hurricane in one of their model runs, when it was about six hours away from making landfall in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:43 PM, wxmx said: For each Andrew, there are 4 or 5 Bonnies. Perhaps, Bonnie was a sheared mess....just look at it. Mabye one of the Mets can bring up a shear analysis for Emily. Don't think it's going to encounter much shear east of Florida. Tropical Storm Bonnie (2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 FWIW (not much ), my latest Emilycast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:19 PM, Mallow said: Haha, fair enough. As for Emily, unless the latest satellite image from 18:15 is faulty, it looks like the "new" burst of convection near the center is already falling apart. How are you going to keep convection alive when the top half is being sheared in two different directions? Stuff is still firing northeast of the center, though. Convection near the center completely collapsed, part of the convection debris is moving south and part is moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It's also interesting to note that Emily's extrapolated pressure is already lower than Bonnie's minimum pressure. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:50 PM, wxmx said: Convection near the center completely collapsed, part of the convection debris is moving south and part is moving north. Yup. That was a quick pulse. You can almost see a cold pocket that reached the surface right at the center of the swirl... the last thing Emily needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:50 PM, wxmx said: Convection near the center completely collapsed, part of the convection debris is moving south and part is moving north. lol…I was just gonna mention that. I give up on this thing. Will just wait for Saturday and see what kinda mess is east of Florida, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:38 PM, Snowlover123 said: Agreed. Definitely the toughest storm to forecast of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season by far. Been pretty easy to lean to one side of the guidance envelope and NHC tho. Agreed on difficult forecast, but think its been easy to lean one direction track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It looks like the G-IV mission is already up from McDill and dropping radiosondes around the Northern Bahamas. We should have a good number of new data points for the 00z suite. Perfect.. NOAA NHC/AOC-><-ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Dropsonde shows SSE winds near the surface, NNE winds at 925 mb (2,339 ft), and SSW winds at 850 mb (4,767 ft). Im guessing thats no good regarding intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 6:57 PM, Gibbsfreeenergy said: Been pretty easy to lean to one side of the guidance envelope and NHC tho. Agreed on difficult forecast, but think its been easy to lean one direction track wise. One thing to notice, though, is that even though the spread at this point is pretty substantial, the forecast once it gets east of Florida tightens up again. Seems like almost regardless of the current track, the mid-latitude troughing over the east coast should be enough to keep this thing east of Florida (as long as it remains a bona fide tropical entity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 7:00 PM, HurricaneFrances04 said: Dropsonde shows SSE winds near the surface, NNE winds at 925 mb (2,339 ft), and SSW winds at 850 mb (4,767 ft). Im guessing thats no good regarding intensification. The dropsode was launched in the center of circulation where the winds are light and variable and often change in direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 7:01 PM, Mallow said: One thing to notice, though, is that even though the spread at this point is pretty substantial, the forecast once it gets east of Florida tightens up again. Seems like almost regardless of the current track, the mid-latitude troughing over the east coast should be enough to keep this thing east of Florida (as long as it remains a bona fide tropical entity). I am not so sure I agree with this. I have been thinking S tip of FL...by Friday 592 H5 contour on Euro reconnects from west atlantic to TX/Southern tier ridge as the western atlantic trof lifts out. IF, IF, Emily is still alive, given the left of track bias initially, I can see this going into FL or even west of FL. No clue intensity, likely weak, and no clue what it would do once near the Keys or into extreme eastern Gulf...IF still alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 7:08 PM, phil882 said: The dropsode was launched in the center of circulation where the winds are light and variable and often change in direction. Ahhh…duh...that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 7:09 PM, Gibbsfreeenergy said: I am not so sure I agree with this. I have been thinking S tip of FL...by Friday 592 H5 contour on Euro reconnects from west atlantic to TX/Southern tier ridge as the western atlantic trof lifts out. IF, IF, Emily is still alive, given the left of track bias initially, I can see this going into FL or even west of FL. No clue intensity, likely weak, and no clue what it would do once near the Keys or into extreme eastern Gulf...IF still alive Could be. There are so many factors at play here that it's a tough track forecast, IMO. It is interesting to me, though, that the closest tracks on your map that we seem to have followed so far are the 06z and 12z tracks from 8/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 On 8/3/2011 at 7:12 PM, Mallow said: Could be. There are so many factors at play here that it's a tough track forecast, IMO. No doubt. The cone should be way bigger, IMO, than it is now. If you asked me to draw a path right now, I would draw my center path line on the western edge of their cone, with my cone of uncertainty all the way to Pensacola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Actually, I bet the "XTRAP model" is doing unusually well relative to other models than it typically does. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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