Which Winter Month did you enjoy more?

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd say there is a very good chance Ray beats Kevin this year and I'm not trolling. Just my guess.

What are you basing it on..other than a guess?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just last season, which was a fluke.

I said that you had a good chance to beat me '09-'10.....it was an el Nino, which tend to favor some elevation events.

I was right in '07 and '08....didn't know you going into '06

So what are you basing this on this year in early August I might add?

[CoastalWx]

SPECI KHYA 161152Z 08011G19KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN005 OVC010 M01/M02 A3003 RMK AO2 P0008

SPECI KBDL 161203Z 02012KT 1SM R06/P6000FT -PLSN BR SCT002 OVC035 M07/M09 A2992 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0004 $

[40/70 Benchmark]

So what are you basing this on this year in early August I might add?

Enso state coupled with the QBO regime should favor a relatively latitudinal gradient to the seasonal snowfall distribution; not to mention that the odds of you beating me in three consecutive seasons are slim.

[40/70 Benchmark]

SPECI KHYA 161152Z 08011G19KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN005 OVC010 M01/M02 A3003 RMK AO2 P0008

SPECI KBDL 161203Z 02012KT 1SM R06/P6000FT -PLSN BR SCT002 OVC035 M07/M09 A2992 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0004 $

[Damage In Tolland]

Enso state coupled with the QBO regime should favor a relatively latitudinal gradient to the seasonal snowfall distribution; not to mention that the odds of you beating me in three consecutive seasons are slim.

As last year proved..all those can be thrown out the window

[40/70 Benchmark]

As last year proved..all those can be thrown out the window

As '08 and '09 proved, I avg about 25" more than you do, so I'm likely to beat you.....got lucky, last year.

[CoastalWx]

What are you basing it on..other than a guess?

Ray said it, and Will mentioned it as well. If you go back to years that had a similar configuration to what we might see...they tended to be latitude years. Of course we have variables like the NAO and you never know if you get an April event, but that seems to be the feeling right now. Who knows...it could be a year that screws the coast too relatively speaking...like '00-'01.

[CoastalWx]

I'd rather be in Steve's location or Matt Mother f'er this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ray said it, and Will mentioned it as well. If you go back to years that had a similar configuration to what we might see...they tended to be latitude years. Of course we have variables like the NAO and you never know if you get an April event, but that seems to be the feeling right now. Who knows...it could be a year that screws the coast too relatively speaking...like '00-'01.

Right.....but those are more likely in el Nino seasons and considering that we just had a la Nina winter that behaved uncharacteristically in that respect, I'd bet against it....but as you said, you never know.

I'd put a healthy wager on it, though.....I'll bet anyone $100 that I beat him.

[Ginx snewx]

I'd rather be in Steve's location or Matt Mother f'er this year.

LOL I would rather be in Drysluts or Meks

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL I would rather be in Drysluts or Meks

Ha True that

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL I would rather be in Drysluts or Meks

80" imby......what do you think...

[CoastalWx]

LOL I would rather be in Drysluts or Meks

Just trolling Kev.

[CoastalWx]

Right.....but those are more likely in el Nino seasons and considering that we just had a la Nina winter that behaved uncharacteristically in that respect, I'd bet against it....but as you said, you never know.

I'd put a healthy wager on it, though.....I'll bet anyone $100 that I beat him.

If we can hold a -NAO, then the chance of coastals (albeit likely brief lasting coastals) goes up. If I had to guess...any -NAO won't be as strong last last winter, which would increase the chances of swfe's, but that's just really taking a stab at it. Some of the long range models seem to like a cold Canada, which I'll take any day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we can hold a -NAO, then the chance of coastals (albeit likely brief lasting coastals) goes up. If I had to guess...any -NAO won't be as strong last last winter, which would increase the chances of swfe's, but that's just really taking a stab at it. Some of the long range models seem to like a cold Canada, which I'll take any day.

Coastals give Kev a better shot of being in the ball game, which is why he is far more likely to beat me in an el Nino, than in a Nina....the exception to that is that I am more likely to beat him in coastals\seasons of a large magnitude.....which renders last season an anomaly inside of an anomaly.

Not only did he beat me in a la Nina, but he beat in a very snowy winter and beat me in a KU....that will not happen again for a long time.

[CoastalWx]

Coastals give Kev a better shot of being in the ball game, which is why he is far more likely to beat me in an el Nino, than in a Nina....the exception to that is that I am more likely to beat him in coastals\seasons of a large magnitude.....which renders last season an anomaly inside of an anomaly.

Not only did he beat me in a la Nina, but he beat in a very snowy winter and beat me in a KU....that will not happen again for a long time.

Those little nickel and dime events that gave south of the Pike a few inches here and there are what did it. Throw the weak Jan norlun in there too. I would have pushed 90" if those events were 15 miles north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Those little nickel and dime events that gave south of the Pike a few inches here and there are what did it. Throw the weak Jan norlun in there too. I would have pushed 90" if those events were 15 miles north.

The nickel and dime events are the ones in which he usually beats me......and modest coastals.

[CoastalWx]

The nickel and dime events are the ones in which he usually beats me......and modest coastals.

I want one of those bombing clippers that drop an 8" fluff bomb, followed by 50mph nw winds dropping WC below 0 and freezing weenies on contact.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I want one of those bombing clippers that drop an 8" fluff bomb, followed by 50mph nw winds dropping WC below 0 and freezing weenies on contact.

My next goal is a high impact, Tip blue bomb....I haven't seen one for awhile.

The large events have been either rain or powder for me over the course of the last few seasons.

[Tropopause_Fold]

If we can hold a -NAO, then the chance of coastals (albeit likely brief lasting coastals) goes up. If I had to guess...any -NAO won't be as strong last last winter, which would increase the chances of swfe's, but that's just really taking a stab at it. Some of the long range models seem to like a cold Canada, which I'll take any day.

would seem tough to go to winter #3 in a row of such a predominantly strong ridge up there but there seems little doubt at this point that we are entering a new decadal regime in that respect. negative is the way to lean, imho. how far is the question i think.

now watch...raging + all winter. LOL.

[Damage In Tolland]

Coastals give Kev a better shot of being in the ball game, which is why he is far more likely to beat me in an el Nino, than in a Nina....the exception to that is that I am more likely to beat him in coastals\seasons of a large magnitude.....which renders last season an anomaly inside of an anomaly. Not only did he beat me in a la Nina, but he beat in a very snowy winter and beat me in a KU....that will not happen again for a long time.

It will happen every year for the rest of your life..just like the dark, mysterious man who comes into your shed once a year and bends you over the workbench. Same idea

[ORH_wxman]

I think an important question this year will be how soon do I have a permanent lead on Kevin for snow? Last year I had to wait until the Mar 31-Apr 1 storm. Some years I'll lead right away and never look back. I'll predict the latter this year. It could be like a 2007-2008 where he takes the lead on the first storm and then I destroy him the rest of the winter.

[ski MRG]

You guys are so cute bickering over who'll get the bigger meager total.lol

[Damage In Tolland]

I think an important question this year will be how soon do I have a permanent lead on Kevin for snow? Last year I had to wait until the Mar 31-Apr 1 storm. Some years I'll lead right away and never look back. I'll predict the latter this year. It could be like a 2007-2008 where he takes the lead on the first storm and then I destroy him the rest of the winter.

Considering your area beats mine 18 out of 20 winters..there's no argument frm me there.

I still am of the firm belief that my area avg's more snow than GAY.

[ORH_wxman]

Considering your area beats mine 18 out of 20 winters..there's no argument frm me there.

I still am of the firm belief that my area avg's more snow than GAY.

That's pretty much unsupportable by longterm data and even in the short term he has killed you since you've been there.

[ORH_wxman]

You guys are so cute bickering over who'll get the bigger meager total.lol

Its gonna be funny if Socks moves to Rindge, NH and gets more snow than both of us, lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's pretty much unsupportable by longterm data and even in the short term he has killed you since you've been there.

He has? Interesting. One or 2 winters whre he beat me doesn't constitute that

[ORH_wxman]

He has? Interesting. One or 2 winters whre he beat me doesn't constitute that

He beat you by over 20" in 2 consecutive winters. The other ones you beat him in were narrow margins. Average snowfall is not done by "years won"...its done by taking the amount of snow you got and dividing by the number of years.

[ski MRG]

Its gonna be funny if Socks moves to Rindge, NH and gets more snow than both of us, lol.

Not happening. I feel very good about this upcoming Winter. BTW, nicely played with Blizz on the Gay/Tolland seasonal Avg assertion.lol