earthlight Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Favorable mid level lapse rates highlight the threat, with a shortwave and increased instability by afternoon. Should be enough to trigger the development of thunderstorms by afternoon--moving south/southeast towards the area. The RUC has well over 2500 j/kg of SBCAPE, which may be overdone, but the point is that the instability being forecast would be more than enough to support development. The shear is meager, though...so I would immediately warn of the potential for unorganized convection. Regardless, here's a cool SREF image of the small area of more favorable lapse rates in our part of the country---at least more favorable than we've seen during convection in a little while (our lapse rates were poor during the storms a few days ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 did we get storms last night, thought I heard thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 did we get storms last night, thought I heard thunder yeah around 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Favorable mid level lapse rates highlight the threat, with a shortwave and increased instability by afternoon. Should be enough to trigger the development of thunderstorms by afternoon--moving south/southeast towards the area. The RUC has well over 2500 j/kg of SBCAPE, which may be overdone, but the point is that the instability being forecast would be more than enough to support development. The shear is meager, though...so I would immediately warn of the potential for unorganized convection. Regardless, here's a cool SREF image of the small area of more favorable lapse rates in our part of the country---at least more favorable than we've seen during convection in a little while (our lapse rates were poor during the storms a few days ago). So because the lapse rates are better we see a better chance for development today than a few days ago. with less organization because of the poor shear correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 12z NAM brings a line of storms thru our area. 1pm-3pm timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 SBCAPE is in excess of 3000 J/KG already over northern NJ. There is also a pocket of 25kt effective bulk shear over NE PA. It's not much but should be sufficant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 cu off to the west now. we should get going within the hour. weak shortwave currently over central pa. effective shear is extremely poor--less than 25 kts. looks like we will have a few slower moving and/or pulsing storms to start. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis®ion=LongIsland&numimages=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN PA...SRN TIER AND ERN NY TO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011607Z - 011700Z WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NRN PA...SRN TIER OF NY TO WRN NEW ENGLAND. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT ADVANCING E/SEWD THROUGH NERN AND SRN NY INTO NWRN PA AND NRN OH. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG AND E TO S OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.25-1.5 INCH/...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ERN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER KM/ ARE ALREADY RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT...AS NOW OBSERVED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INVOF THE WIND SHIFT AND HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NRN PA TO WRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT SUGGESTS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL TEND TO BE MULTICELL WITH SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO REMAIN AOB 25 KT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS.. 08/01/2011 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 We will probably be the included in the watch later further south. Mid-level lapse rates 7.0C/km and higher into NYC area this hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 12z SPC WRF this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 A couple of t-storms have popped over Westchester and Fairfield. Already significant hail cores with severe t-storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 A couple of t-storms have popped over Westchester and Fairfield. Already significant hail cores with severe t-storm warnings. I hear thunder off in the distance from the storm up by white plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 dime-sized hail about 10 minutes ago. went to go snap some pictures, but the rain started to pour and melted most of it rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Let's hope that cell can hold its strength in white plains and hit suffolk county long island. I haven't seen a good storm in longgg time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Storms being enhanced by the sea-breeze front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Storms being enhanced by the sea-breeze front. That's good I take it? Sorry if I sound like a kid just haven't seen a nice storm in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 That's good I take it? Sorry if I sound like a kid just haven't seen a nice storm in a while Well, it is better than nothing. The sea-breeze front serves as a lifting mechanism, but if you want to see tremendous storms, the sea-breeze front is usually not the way to get them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Nice storm headed towards western north shore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Here in Port Jefferain see one huge cumulonimbus blowing up overhead, and those beautiful tropical like future tstorms percolating all around. Just gorgeous. Will try and send pic on twitter at nymetrowx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like radar coming to life in NE and North Central Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ME...NH...MA...RI...CT...SERN NY...ERN PA...NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011815Z - 011945Z DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ME...NH...MA...RI...CT...SERN NY...ERN PA AND NRN NJ. HOWEVER...UNLESS AN ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER THREAT BECOMES APPARENT...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. AT 18Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AHEAD OF A SERIES OF MINOR UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES. SURFACE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 70F OVER PA/SERN NY/NRN NJ TO AROUND 60F IN ME. A ZONE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-3000 J/KG. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL AID IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...IF STORM CLUSTERS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL AT THE MESOSCALE...THEN A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GARNER.. 08/01/2011 ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Severe T-storm warning for a big chunk. From Jones Beach to east of Robert Moses. Another cell west of there is also very close to being severe, Hail in both cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Severe T-storm warning for a big chunk. From Jones Beach to east of Robert Moses. Another cell west of there is also very close to being severe, Hail in both cells. that's a pretty awesome little line that just opened up on the south shore, those cumulous must have been awesome to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ179&warncounty=NYC059&firewxzone=NYZ179&local_place1=Albertson+NY&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for long island and NE of NYC into CT and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 As much as i like severe weather threats and tracking them , i really just want some good down pours of rain to water the flowers. lol. Edit: even better a nice snow squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Unusual to have a watch include LI and not NYC...would seem to indicate the severe threat is going to be pretty minimal around here (or at least very isolated) Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for long island and NE of NYC into CT and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 that's a pretty awesome little line that just opened up on the south shore, those cumulous must have been awesome to see! CG lightning visible form here in Long Beach with the sun out as the storms passed by to my NE. I just took this photo a few minutes ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 massive raindrops here in Garden City...but not raining heavily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 And we have thunder...great way to spice up the work day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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