phlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wind is the biggest threat...not so sure about hail but isolated larger hail can't be ruled out since lapse is pretty steep. Killer will be west winds drying out the lower atmosphere. IMO, my guess is scattered/broken line or lines...probably more storms north than city/south and probably a better threat in the Poconos than locally. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'd place my big money bets on Jersey today. Overall though the next 7-10 days "appear" active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like maybe above Trenton I might be heading to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 New Day 1 puts the whole area in the slight now. ...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE... RESIDUAL EML PLUME BEING DRAWN ESEWD AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING ERN CANADIAN TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT...AND 30-40 KT NNWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WDLY SCTD TO SCTD STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. SOME OF THE STORMS BRIEFLY MAY ASSUME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. WHILE WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY GREAT TO WARRANT EXTENSION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA WWD INTO OH AND SWD INTO MD/DE. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS/BROKEN BANDS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD...WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL CONTINUING INTO THIS EVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 This should be nice for the New Castle County Crew on this message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Lee...that would be nice if it actually happens. I have seen that same picture all too often this summer to have nothing even come close to materializing like it. I just want some rain..... 0.50"+ would be nice This should be nice for the New Castle County Crew on this message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm scheduled to play tennis in Collegeville at 6 PM, so you can take this one to the bank, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Decent mid level lapse rates in the area, as well as thermo's..however: Meager shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Better get a watch up for Eastern Pa: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php most of them cells are severe warned and have some solid sig hail returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...DE...MD...NRN VA...ERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011922Z - 012045Z DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE S/SE ACROSS SRN/SERN PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...DE...MD...NRN VA AND ERN WV. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM OH E ACROSS PA/SERN NY WITHIN A PLUME OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND LWR GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST 16Z HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS SEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/DELMARVA. MEANWHILE...19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AOB 25 KT/...SVR WEATHER COVERAGE MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WW ISSUANCE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GARNER.. 08/01/2011 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40907716 40907507 40307398 38107592 37907833 38577950 40087917 40907716 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...DE...MD...NRN VA...ERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011922Z - 012045Z DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE S/SE ACROSS SRN/SERN PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...DE...MD...NRN VA AND ERN WV. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM OH E ACROSS PA/SERN NY WITHIN A PLUME OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND LWR GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST 16Z HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS SEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/DELMARVA. MEANWHILE...19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AOB 25 KT/...SVR WEATHER COVERAGE MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WW ISSUANCE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GARNER.. 08/01/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 things are brewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 given the # of warnings out already there should be a watch out...just my .02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Storms firing up along the Schuylkill River. Hearing a few rumbles of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 given the # of warnings out already there should be a watch out...just my .02. my guess is SPC is paying more attention to the ND/SD/MN tornado threat. Because I agree, I've seen watches go up for much less than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Storms firing up along the Schuylkill River. Hearing a few rumbles of thunder here. just heard one here as well...it's raining here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It will be interesting to see if training storms set up from Bucks, southeastward through eastern Chester and Mont. Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 severe warning out until 6 for Montco, Philly, and fringe parts of Chester and Delco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 severe warning out until 6 for Montco, Philly, and fringe parts of Chester and Delco. Nice. This should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Nice. This should be interesting. I'm sitting underneath round 1 of a couple (I think)...this cell has just rained on me for about 20 minutes...thundering a good bit but little/no wind. Not complaining one bit...just want the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 no rain here. constant thunder and lightning though. I'm sure its nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Folks along the Chesco/Montco border looks like they are going to get trained on for awhile. Also looking good for Center City. Nice batch arriving from the Pottsville/Reading area. Wish the daggone Dover radar was up and working. They had a lightning strike take out a power supply on July 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm sitting underneath round 1 of a couple (I think)...this cell has just rained on me for about 20 minutes...thundering a good bit but little/no wind. Not complaining one bit...just want the rain! I'll take the rain but no wind please, we lost 5-6 trees at the golf course and lots of debris came down from friday's storm. Will still be cleaning up well into mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 looking at the radar I think I might get nada from all this IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Had winds gusts to around approximately 40 MPH and hail that measured between 0.25-0.50 inches in King of Prussia at 5:25 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Had winds gusts to around approximately 40 MPH and hail that measured between 0.25-0.50 inches in King of Prussia at 5:25 PM. Wow. My wife works just west of Rt 422 and said it was pouring with a little hail mixed in. Totally different story a few miles east of 422 with plenty of thunder/lightning here, but just light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Well, all heck broke loose over here in Voorhees, NJ at about 5:20 today. I'm down here at the shore and got a call from home.. Large hail up to golf ball size hail.. The hail was coming down for at least 5 minutes. No damaging winds reported.. Power is out at this hour. Radar was showing VIL getting up to 80 and still is at this hour. Just an active day today in the immediate Philadelphia area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXTransplant Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Pea size hail here in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I am very sad that I am down the shore right now lol. Seems like the first real severe weather at my house in Lansdowne since the June 9th storm. Oh well can't complain about 80+ degree water and a sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 looks like south jersey through delco is getting pwned right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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