MJO812 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 12z GFS also came in wet for overnight Saturday into Sunday. Over 1 inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Very spread out though starting tomorrow afternoon and going through sunday afternoon as opposed to the bulk of it falling in 12 hours as it had earlier. 12z GFS also came in wet for overnight Saturday into Sunday. Over 1 inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Dude... once again..... there is no such thing as "climo".... it's merely a dumbing down of data by averaging it out. We wont get 15-20, what will happen is we will have a bunch of years where we get 6-12 inches of snow lol to bring the averages down. "Normal" is fictional and does not exist. And another point-- 15-20 isnt even "normal"-- the data is corrupted because of what happened in the 70s and 80s.... average.... for whatever that word means (and it doesnt mean much) should be more around 25-30. BTW Im hoping for global warming-- because that will throw averages right out the window the average long term snowfall is around 28"...Of the 142 winters on record the total was in the 20's 40 times...38 times the totals were 10"-19.9"... amount in inches # of times 00.0-09.9...08...6% 10.0-19.9...38...27% 20.0-29.9...40...28% 30.0-39.9...23...16% 40.0-49.9...17...12% 50.0-69.9...11...8% 60.0-over...05...3% 39% of all winters had 30" or more... since 1993-94 (18 winters) 00.0-09.9...2...11% 10.0-19.9...6...33% 20.0-29.9...1...06% 30.0-39.9...1...06% 40.0-49.9...4...22% 50.0-59.9...2...11% 60.0-over...2...11% 50% of the last 18 winters had over 35" of snowfall...... 44% had less than 20"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 1PM TEB: 85 NYC: 84 EWR: 85 LGA: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 79 BLM: 81 TTN: 84 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Very spread out though starting tomorrow afternoon and going through sunday afternoon as opposed to the bulk of it falling in 12 hours as it had earlier. Yep. It still looks like the bulk of the rain comes late tomorrow night into Sunday morning. Lets hope we can salvage tomorrow and part of Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 the average long term snowfall is around 28"...Of the 142 winters on record the total was in the 20's 40 times...38 times the totals were 10"-19.9"... amount in inches # of times 00.0-09.9...08...6% 10.0-19.9...38...27% 20.0-29.9...40...28% 30.0-39.9...23...16% 40.0-49.9...17...12% 50.0-69.9...11...8% 60.0-over...05...3% 39% of all winters had 30" or more... since 1993-94 (18 winters) 00.0-09.9...2...11% 10.0-19.9...6...33% 20.0-29.9...1...06% 30.0-39.9...1...06% 40.0-49.9...4...22% 50.0-59.9...2...11% 60.0-over...2...11% 50% of the last 18 winters had over 35" of snowfall...... 44% had less than 20"... Nice stats Unc. I calculated that of NYC's 142 years of records, 63 years had 28.0" or greater snowfall, or 44.4%. If you account for the handful of years the total was around 27.8" or just a hair below 28", then the percentage is more like 46%. So overall, that's pretty good IMO. Almost half of the years featured 28"+ snowfall. I think as you head southward toward Philly the percentage is more like 40%, then maybe 35% for the DCA area (above normal years). I'd imagine BOS is basically 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Saturday looks like a cloudy day and Sunday looks like a rainy day. Not a good weekend to have plans. Birthday weekend...i have saturday beach plans and sunday biking plans...come onnn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Birthday weekend...i have saturday beach plans and sunday biking plans...come onnn well, thats what happens when you decide to have your birthday in summer, you run the risk of torrential rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Birthday weekend...i have saturday beach plans and sunday biking plans...come onnn i think we should stay mainly dry most of tomorrow and hope the storms rain come overnight and we dry out for sunday as well. Looking at the sat - we may be in/aout of the sun a part of tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Euro and Ukie also start the rain early Sunday morning and lasting pretty much the whole morning. Good amount of rain too. Rare to see the Ukie show a lot of qpf. You can add the srefs as well. Showing well over 1" of precip for NYC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Euro and Ukie also start the rain early Sunday morning and lasting pretty much the whole morning. Good amount of rain too. Rare to see the Ukie show a lot of qpf. You can add the srefs as well. Showing well over 1" of precip for NYC and north. Euro looks like the heaviest rain is focucessed into N_NJ/NYC then CT. Rain looks to end by noon. So we may get the best case, salvage both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 87 here, its warmer than forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 87 here, its warmer than forecast With the humidity the next 4-5 days, even 80's will feel very warm. Most stations are running +2 to +3 for the month of August so far. LGA is +.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 With the humidity the next 4-5 days, even 80's will feel very warm. Most stations are running +2 to +3 for the month of August so far. LGA is +.9 damn, you whipped out the retro avatars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Went for a 3 mile jog. Temp here is only around 80 and with that strong breeze it feels pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I've almost become spoiled with this summer with essentially dependable weekends for outdoor activities although the THREAT of precip is around much more than last year. A rainy sat night and a rainy Sunday morning is somewhat acceptable... NOW, in Port Jeff, lovely though humid S/SSE winds with sunshine just awesome. Summer's life is now walking slowly down the Green Mile so every moment needs to be worshipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 18z gfs remains insistent in delaying the storms/rain till overnight saturday and extend them into Sunday PM. Visible sat reveals we may see some longer period of sun tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I think through next week (8/12) any heat (90 degree readings) is limited to a day or two when its not cloudy or stormy in the usual warmer places. Beyond there towards midmonth we may see a surge of heat as the ridge builds east. Looks overall near normal - some warmer days mixed with below when its cloudy and rainy. Now if we could only cleaer these pesty clouds out today. 18z gfs builds in the ridge by next weekend, looks hot again week of the 15th. Lets see if continues and gains support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 I've almost become spoiled with this summer with essentially dependable weekends for outdoor activities although the THREAT of precip is around much more than last year. A rainy sat night and a rainy Sunday morning is somewhat acceptable... NOW, in Port Jeff, lovely though humid S/SSE winds with sunshine just awesome. Summer's life is now walking slowly down the Green Mile so every moment needs to be worshipped. I like that metaphor...living in the area, I generally agree with your sentiments. Save for some stretches in July, this summer is nowhere near as unpleasantly hot as the last one was. Summer's arrival in March last year is something I will not soon forget. Though August still has 26 days left, as my father would say after he passed age 40, "it's all basically downhill from here." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 NAM is much drier overall. Storms stay mainly north beginning late Saturday evening. Sunday scattered storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The Nam barely has any rain for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 The Nam barely has any rain for this weekend lets hope its right. either way most guidance has tomorrow dry through late evening or into the overnight, so at the worst we salavage one day. Maybe we can even get ito some long breaks of sun tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 sunday-wed is looking like 90+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 gfs and nam are worlds apart tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 77/55 may be pleasant, but to me, summer isn't about comfortable/cool temps/crisp nights, keep that for spring and fall. It's about going outside in the hot sun, breaking a sweat, swimming, going to the beach, feeling the humidity in the air, watching steam rise off the pavement after a T-storm, going out at midnight and still being warm/humid enough to swim or just walk around in shorts/t-shirt (temps in the 50s overnight during the summer feels September-like to me, and I'd rather not see my breath on a July night). Maybe I'd feel differently if I grew up in NNE, but having lived in NJ my life thus far, I've grown to enjoy the heat/humidity for the short time we have it, 2-3 months per year. Yeah, he's talking about spring and fall, definitely not summer. One must embrace ALL the seasons to be a true weather enthusiast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Clouds coming in fast and some showers over in PA already. Lets see if those storms can stay north and keep it dry today. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 sunday-wed is looking like 90+ If it can stay sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Can someone tell me how mug sun I'd got left at the beach in Monmouth county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Sunny here - actually cleared from earlier but clouds and storms inching their way east out of PA. NAM has it dry till tonight but radar may suggest otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Can someone tell me how mug sun I'd got left at the beach in Monmouth county? Looking at the sat a few hours looks real nice there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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