snywx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Saturday looks mainly ok until late evening while Sunday looks like a soaker on consecutive runs of the gfs. ECm has a line of storms saturday night into sunday. Im having a huge bbq on Saturday so im praying for sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Im having a huge bbq on Saturday so im praying for sunshine I'll be over around 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Im having a huge bbq on Saturday so im praying for sunshine I'm going to one after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Hopefully we can salvage one day of the weekend. The 18z gfs has storms by late Sat afternoon through Sun morning (heaviest overnight). Appears Sunday may clear out by noon or so. ECM looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Tonight felt fall like, the coolest night in over a month, and I didn't like it. Not looking forward to autumn yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Tonight felt fall like, the coolest night in over a month, and I didn't like it. Not looking forward to autumn yet. Also, my high today was 80F. Disgusting, bring back my 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Tonight felt fall like, the coolest night in over a month, and I didn't like it. Not looking forward to autumn yet. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Also, my high today was 80F. Disgusting, bring back my 90s. Lol I don't think "disgusting" is a fitting word here despite how much you didn't like today's high. Today was gorgeous and didn't feel fall like at all. I was in the pool and the sun felt strong. Did you stay in the clouds longer today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Also, my high today was 80F. Disgusting, bring back my 90s. In a way we lucked out to see some sun on Wed and today but it was too cloudy for to long. Geez Sunday looks wet! . If we can get sun tomorrow and Saturday we could go above guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Lol I don't think "disgusting" is a fitting word here despite how much you didn't like today's high. Today was gorgeous and didn't feel fall like at all. I was in the pool and the sun felt strong. Did you stay in the clouds longer today? Temperatures in the 80F range is definitely summer. I used to live in the Poconos where the average July high/low is 77/55. I don't understand why people want this extreme heat, having temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and low 80s is the most pleasant for most humans. I think I may be moving up to New England soon for a teaching position, and I'm really glad to be heading back north again after 4 years of college in Vermont...it's not definite yet, but I hope I can make the move. The white pine/birch forest, the crisp nights, the mountains...all so much better than being in a hot concrete jungle. And NYC will eventually revert to climo and see a bunch of 15-20" winters while Rindge NH gets 100"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Temperatures in the 80F range is definitely summer. I used to live in the Poconos where the average July high/low is 77/55. I don't understand why people want this extreme heat, having temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and low 80s is the most pleasant for most humans. I think I may be moving up to New England soon for a teaching position, and I'm really glad to be heading back north again after 4 years of college in Vermont...it's not definite yet, but I hope I can make the move. The white pine/birch forest, the crisp nights, the mountains...all so much better than being in a hot concrete jungle. And NYC will eventually revert to climo and see a bunch of 15-20" winters while Rindge NH gets 100"... we can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Please don't make me relive that terrible day. I hate thinking about it. Yes I thought there was a general rule to never speak about that day again We got our revenge on Feb 26-27, 2010 and again on Dec 26-27, 2011 and once more on Jan 26-27, 2011..... I'll know now to always root for snow on the 26-27 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Temperatures in the 80F range is definitely summer. I used to live in the Poconos where the average July high/low is 77/55. I don't understand why people want this extreme heat, having temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and low 80s is the most pleasant for most humans. I think I may be moving up to New England soon for a teaching position, and I'm really glad to be heading back north again after 4 years of college in Vermont...it's not definite yet, but I hope I can make the move. The white pine/birch forest, the crisp nights, the mountains...all so much better than being in a hot concrete jungle. And NYC will eventually revert to climo and see a bunch of 15-20" winters while Rindge NH gets 100"... Dude... once again..... there is no such thing as "climo".... it's merely a dumbing down of data by averaging it out. We wont get 15-20, what will happen is we will have a bunch of years where we get 6-12 inches of snow lol to bring the averages down. "Normal" is fictional and does not exist. And another point-- 15-20 isnt even "normal"-- the data is corrupted because of what happened in the 70s and 80s.... average.... for whatever that word means (and it doesnt mean much) should be more around 25-30. BTW Im hoping for global warming-- because that will throw averages right out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 we can only hope I think the -NAO is going to make above-average snowfall winters more common on the coastal plain, but at the same time there is no way the NYC metro can see 50-60" every year as many of us have since 08-09. The last three winters have spoiled winter lovers in this region beyond belief, and we will eventually come down to earth. Even in a favorable -PDO/-NAO decadal cycle, like the 1960s, there are bound to be some crappy winters. There were a lot of great winters from 57-58 through 69-70, but there were certainly some forgettable ones like 65-66 and 67-68. Even the best alignment of the global oscillations will not always produce a snowy season. Eventually there were be a clunker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I think the -NAO is going to make above-average snowfall winters more common on the coastal plain, but at the same time there is no way the NYC metro can see 50-60" every year as many of us have since 08-09. The last three winters have spoiled winter lovers in this region beyond belief, and we will eventually come down to earth. Even in a favorable -PDO/-NAO decadal cycle, like the 1960s, there are bound to be some crappy winters. There were a lot of great winters from 57-58 through 69-70, but there were certainly some forgettable ones like 65-66 and 67-68. Even the best alignment of the global oscillations will not always produce a snowy season. Eventually there were be a clunker. I think 65-66 had too much of a good thing--- south of us they had a historic winter in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 So how much rain this weekend? GFS says 2"...NAM less than half that (at least as of the 0z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Looks like we'll be dealing with those clouds in C-PA later this morning. Otherwise gorgeous morning so far. Weekend looks cloudy and stormy, first one in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 So how much rain this weekend? GFS says 2"...NAM less than half that (at least as of the 0z run) Euro has strong line of storms and rain sat night into Sunday then clearing. I guess this would be the best scenario if its gotta rain this weekend. Mayeb salvage both days. If we can get into sun for any sustained period both days could approach 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 and the NAM had it spread out with only one period of heavy rain, the GFS had about 12-18 hours of heavy rain Euro has strong line of storms and rain sat night into Sunday then clearing. I guess this would be the best scenario if its gotta rain this weekend. Mayeb salvage both days. If we can get into sun for any sustained period both days could approach 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 and the NAM had it spread out with only one period of heavy rain, the GFS had about 12-18 hours of heavy rain 6z NAM has convective activity Saturday mid day. Then a break. And then the storms that every other model has Saturday night into Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 6z NAM has convective activity Saturday mid day. Then a break. And then the storms that every other model has Saturday night into Sunday morning. I didnt see much on Saturday prior to 8pm on most guidance. Hoefulyl we can get the storms in and out overnight and get both days dry. We'll see what the 12z suite has to offer. Looks stormy through Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Clouds hanging back into PA. If we can stay sunny we'll surpass guidance in the next 2 hours 1000 roundup TEB: 80 NYC: 77 EWR: 81 LGA: 79 JFK: 79 ISP: 76 TTN: 79 ACY: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I didnt see much on Saturday prior to 8pm on most guidance. Hoefulyl we can get the storms in and out overnight and get both days dry. We'll see what the 12z suite has to offer. Looks stormy through Wed. 12z NAM came back very wet. Nearly 2" of rain for NYC and north. Bullseye of 4"+ in upstate NY. Its from a developing low pressure system that has embedded strong convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 6z NAM has convective activity Saturday mid day. Then a break. And then the storms that every other model has Saturday night into Sunday morning. Saturday looks mainly dry on the 12z Nam. It has a line of storms coming in late at night. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_ref_048l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It pushes the heaviest to mostly during daylight hours sunday morning Saturday looks mainly dry on the 12z Nam. It has a line of storms coming in late at night. http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_048l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....am_p48_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Saturday looks mainly dry on the 12z Nam. It has a line of storms coming in late at night. http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_048l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....am_p48_048l.gif Yeah. But the 12z NAM ruins Sunday. Has a ton of rain moving in early in the morning and lasting a few hours. 1.50"-2" areawide with bigger amounts to 4", north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Yeah. But the 12z NAM ruins Sunday. Has a ton of rain moving in early in the morning and lasting a few hours. 1.50"-2" areawide with bigger amounts to 4", north. Saturday looks like a cloudy day and Sunday looks like a rainy day. Not a good weekend to have plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Temperatures in the 80F range is definitely summer. I used to live in the Poconos where the average July high/low is 77/55. I don't understand why people want this extreme heat, having temperatures in the 60s, 70s, and low 80s is the most pleasant for most humans. I think I may be moving up to New England soon for a teaching position, and I'm really glad to be heading back north again after 4 years of college in Vermont...it's not definite yet, but I hope I can make the move. The white pine/birch forest, the crisp nights, the mountains...all so much better than being in a hot concrete jungle. And NYC will eventually revert to climo and see a bunch of 15-20" winters while Rindge NH gets 100"... 77/55 may be pleasant, but to me, summer isn't about comfortable/cool temps/crisp nights, keep that for spring and fall. It's about going outside in the hot sun, breaking a sweat, swimming, going to the beach, feeling the humidity in the air, watching steam rise off the pavement after a T-storm, going out at midnight and still being warm/humid enough to swim or just walk around in shorts/t-shirt (temps in the 50s overnight during the summer feels September-like to me, and I'd rather not see my breath on a July night). Maybe I'd feel differently if I grew up in NNE, but having lived in NJ my life thus far, I've grown to enjoy the heat/humidity for the short time we have it, 2-3 months per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Saturday looks like a cloudy day and Sunday looks like a rainy day. Not a good weekend to have plans. Still hopeful we can escape the rain during the day/afternoon if the storms come through overnight. Hopefully the brunt of the storms stay north. Dont think we can escape the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Clouds getting in the way now - looks like we'll stay in the low/mid 80s TEB: 82 NYC: 81 EWR: 82 LGA: 80 JFK: 80 ISP: 77 BLM: 81 TTN: 81 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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