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August NYC Metro WX Disco


Dark Energy

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I would think he's right. Storms are moving too slow to get here before we lose the heating of the day....

Nice cell heading NE from Southern Jersey/PA to the NJ shore. Starting to hear thunder and see the winds pick up in Pt Pleasant. Had a great lightning show last evening as I drove down the GSP, hoping for another one.

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Looking at various parameters, you would think no, but the 06Z NAM brings through an impressive line of thunderstorms.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0156 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES WITH A COLD

FRONT MOVING INTO CNTRL NY AND PA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...NRN VA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE

ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY THU...FROM CNTRL NY INTO WV. WITH

AREAS OF HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE

FRONT...WITH EXISTING CONVECTION LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN. MODERATE FLOW

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND TIME OF DAY SUGGEST AT LEAST DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS WILL OCCUR...AND SOME HAIL WITH THE MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY.

OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT PERHAPS SUFFICIENT

GIVEN LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO.

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