Isotherm Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 August should finish within normal ranges for the area, maybe even slightly below. Another -3/-4 departure day today, should bring NYC down near +1.1 or so. The next several days are near normal, then a strong shot of autumnal air should arrive in the wake of a sfc low mid next week. End of August looks to finish with the mean trough in the Lakes/Northeast. My summer outlook from back in May had August -1 to -2 for NYC, but I don't think we'll make it that chilly atm, unless we see multiple big cooling shots through 8/30. Heading into September, we'll likely start the month with troughiness persisting in the NE US, but I expect the Atlantic ridge to build back westward, providing some late summer warmth/humidity, maybe for Labor day weekend and beyond. The warmer than normal SST's in the west atlantic via the +AMO should aid in boosting September's temps, as the AMO generally has the strongest correlation to sfc temps in the month of Sept for our area. Tropical forcing also argues for lower height anomalies positioned in the Upper MW/Lakes stretching into the Northeast. MJO will be circling through phase 1 over the next 7-10 days, which promotes a cooler/wetter signal in the areas noted. If the MJO continues propagating into phase 2, the long wave pattern will once again shift to one that is conducive for high heights in the Northeast/Mid-west, with the -NAO block connectin to the US upper ridge. There would also be some tropical influence in the SE given the lower height field there. NAO is currently positive for the first time in months, but don't get used to it. We won't fall into the tank, but a slightly neg AO/NAO regime should resume over the next couple weeks. By mid September I think we could see at least a slight positive NAO start to take shape. Usually strong -NAO summers relax to neutral or positive for Sep/Oct. What happens thereafter is not necessarily dependent upon the fall regime, but I'd feel more comfortable forecasting a winter time -NAO if Sep/Oct ends up positive. Physically speaking, the correlation makes sense given lower heights north of 60N latitude through Nov 1 promote rapid cryosphere build-up in Russia and Canada, setting the stage for a blocked up cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 August should finish within normal ranges for the area, maybe even slightly below. Another -3/-4 departure day today, should bring NYC down near +1.1 or so. The next several days are near normal, then a strong shot of autumnal air should arrive in the wake of a sfc low mid next week. End of August looks to finish with the mean trough in the Lakes/Northeast. My summer outlook from back in May had August -1 to -2 for NYC, but I don't think we'll make it that chilly atm, unless we see multiple big cooling shots through 8/30. Heading into September, we'll likely start the month with troughiness persisting in the NE US, but I expect the Atlantic ridge to build back westward, providing some late summer warmth/humidity, maybe for Labor day weekend and beyond. The warmer than normal SST's in the west atlantic via the +AMO should aid in boosting September's temps, as the AMO generally has the strongest correlation to sfc temps in the month of Sept for our area. Tropical forcing also argues for lower height anomalies positioned in the Upper MW/Lakes stretching into the Northeast. MJO will be circling through phase 1 over the next 7-10 days, which promotes a cooler/wetter signal in the areas noted. If the MJO continues propagating into phase 2, the long wave pattern will once again shift to one that is conducive for high heights in the Northeast/Mid-west, with the -NAO block connectin to the US upper ridge. There would also be some tropical influence in the SE given the lower height field there. NAO is currently positive for the first time in months, but don't get used to it. We won't fall into the tank, but a slightly neg AO/NAO regime should resume over the next couple weeks. By mid September I think we could see at least a slight positive NAO start to take shape. Usually strong -NAO summers relax to neutral or positive for Sep/Oct. What happens thereafter is not necessarily dependent upon the fall regime, but I'd feel more comfortable forecasting a winter time -NAO if Sep/Oct ends up positive. Physically speaking, the correlation makes sense given lower heights north of 60N latitude through Nov 1 promote rapid cryosphere build-up in Russia and Canada, setting the stage for a blocked up cold season. I thought the old saying of "cold octobers lead to cold winters"... I still think the NAO remains neutral throught out Sept, and then a dip negative in October. The netural phase of the NAO in late aug into sept does mean some higher pressures off the coast of NF, with lower heights down south. I think that's what the longer range models are starting to hint at. Mean troughs and their passage timing will be a critical factor in tropical threats, as well as temps into late aug,early Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 some of the models are really starting to get more impressed with the potential for a big shortwave and cold frontal passage during the middle of next week. these are images you usually see in the transition seasons of autumn & spring..when these big ULL's drop anomalously far south and swing east/northeast. there's a pretty cool thermal gradient being advertised too. probably fantasy at this point but it's something to watch for. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/f156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Departures through August 16th. LGA now even: LGA: 0.0 NYC: +1.1 JFK: +1.5 EWR: +1.9 ISP: +1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The NAM has been doing fairly well of late and it's virtually dry for tomorrow into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 August should finish within normal ranges for the area, maybe even slightly below. Another -3/-4 departure day today, should bring NYC down near +1.1 or so. The next several days are near normal, then a strong shot of autumnal air should arrive in the wake of a sfc low mid next week. End of August looks to finish with the mean trough in the Lakes/Northeast. My summer outlook from back in May had August -1 to -2 for NYC, but I don't think we'll make it that chilly atm, unless we see multiple big cooling shots through 8/30. Heading into September, we'll likely start the month with troughiness persisting in the NE US, but I expect the Atlantic ridge to build back westward, providing some late summer warmth/humidity, maybe for Labor day weekend and beyond. The warmer than normal SST's in the west atlantic via the +AMO should aid in boosting September's temps, as the AMO generally has the strongest correlation to sfc temps in the month of Sept for our area. Tropical forcing also argues for lower height anomalies positioned in the Upper MW/Lakes stretching into the Northeast. MJO will be circling through phase 1 over the next 7-10 days, which promotes a cooler/wetter signal in the areas noted. If the MJO continues propagating into phase 2, the long wave pattern will once again shift to one that is conducive for high heights in the Northeast/Mid-west, with the -NAO block connectin to the US upper ridge. There would also be some tropical influence in the SE given the lower height field there. Nice discussion. The last few days, guidance has been building heights on/around the 25th and expanding the Atlantic ridge west into the area for end of the month. We'll see if it continues and if a warmer signal emerges, if we can dry things out. After some below normal days next tue - thu, we may push temps back to and above normal by the weekend before labor day. We'll see if the warmth materializes and continues into the week of the 29th, guidance has been building heights but is keeping the brunt of the warmth and heat south and west of the area. Perhaps our next shot at 90s between the 25th and 31st... EWR and NYC still only have 3 and 4 days below normal this month with the next few at or above before the Tuesday front next week. Pending on how warm and dry we can get between the 25th and 31st, we'll see how much we end the month near or above normal for August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 back to the present, today is shaping up to be quite nice temps alrwady pushing 80 with wall to wall of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 With seasonal averages dropping I tend to think EWR will still manage to be at least 2 degrees above normal. It just seems impossible for them to cool down overnight anymore. Nice discussion. The last few days, guidance has been building heights on/around the 25th and expanding the Atlantic ridge west into the area for end of the month. We'll see if it continues and if a warmer signal emerges, if we can dry things out. After some below normal days next tue - thu, we may push temps back to and above normal by the weekend before labor day. We'll see if the warmth materializes and continues into the week of the 29th, guidance has been building heights but is keeping the brunt of the warmth and heat south and west of the area. Perhaps our next shot at 90s between the 25th and 31st... EWR and NYC still only have 3 and 4 days below normal this month with the next few at or above before the Tuesday front next week. Pending on how warm and dry we can get between the 25th and 31st, we'll see how much we end the month near or above normal for August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Gorgeous weather for 18 this morning but the air was extremely dense from all the moisture still hanging around. Could not believe it. Also, had a friend on the course with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Gorgeous weather for 18 this morning but the air was extremely dense from all the moisture still hanging around. Could not believe it. Also, had a friend on the course with me<img src="http://i52.tinypic.com/r89tfd.jpg" /> Is That an owl?? If it is,you are a lucky son of a b**ch.I have always wanted to see a real owl up close.I have been searching for one ever since the 1970s.No matter where I go,I just cant find one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Is That an owl?? If it is,you are a lucky son of a b**ch.I have always wanted to see a real owl up close.I have been searching for one ever since the 1970s.No matter where I go,I just cant find one. I think it is. It had full rotation of its head. I thought maybe it could be a hawk, but seems to fluffy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Agreed with all of the points made in this thread. The late-month warm up has been muted on almost all forecast guidance, owing to the ridging developing near Greenland. Although the actual NAO state does not have drastic pattern impacts this time of year, the longwave pattern does not support heat here in the near future. The ensemble members are tightly clustered with 580+dm heights over the southwest US and the 576dm height line north of the International Border in Washington, usually a strong signal of a lower height pattern on our side of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Might have to watch for a tropical system next weekend: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_228l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Might have to watch for a tropical system next weekend: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_228l.gif 228 hours? That is a lot of watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Is That an owl?? If it is,you are a lucky son of a b**ch.I have always wanted to see a real owl up close.I have been searching for one ever since the 1970s.No matter where I go,I just cant find one. In the town I grew up in, I once walked outside my house right around dusk, I turned to look towards the backyard where we had some woods. We had very tall trees in this woodsy area. At one of the very top branches I saw the silhouette against the dusk sky (that's all you can make out in that lighting from that perspective) of an owl. It was unmistakeable based on it's ears. I think I may have snapped a picture of it but I have no idea where it is. It was one of the coolest things I ever saw. I grew up in a town called Howell so the running joke on my parents when everyone visited us for the first time was to buy some kind of Owl trinkett as a house warming (which went on for 35 years even before I was born, lol). Whether it would be a painting, a candle, a paperweight, etc. we had owls and owl paintings all over our house lol. However, this was the one and only time I ever saw a live one in my hometown and I have never seen one since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12z GGEM still going with a hard rain event for Saturday. 1"-2" of rain. Curious to see what Euro will have shortly as the GFS and NAM have barely anything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 In the town I grew up in, I once walked outside my house right around dusk, I turned to look towards the backyard where we had some woods. We had very tall trees in this woodsy area. At one of the very top branches I saw the silhouette against the dusk sky (that's all you can make out in that lighting from that perspective) of an owl. It was unmistakeable based on it's ears. I think I may have snapped a picture of it but I have no idea where it is. It was one of the coolest things I ever saw. I grew up in a town called Howell so the running joke on my parents when everyone visited us for the first time was to buy some kind of Owl trinkett as a house warming (which went on for 35 years even before I was born, lol). Whether it would be a painting, a candle, a paperweight, etc. we had owls and owl paintings all over our house lol. However, this was the one and only time I ever saw a live one in my hometown and I have never seen one since. Im torn, most people say this is an owl, I think it is, but i saw a few hawk pictures online and it looks like them too. Wish there was someway to verify because its very rare to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 My only logic with why I'd go with a hawk is you don't generally see owls out in the open like that especially during the daytime. Im torn, most people say this is an owl, I think it is, but i saw a few hawk pictures online and it looks like them too. Wish there was someway to verify because its very rare to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I think its a red tail hawk. Check out this pic. Very similar to yours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yeah, I just sent the pic to a guy who bird watches for a hobby, its 99% a red tailed Hawk, although he did say it was the biggest one he had ever seen and without seeing the face could not be 100% Oh well, a cool site up close. That thing wasn't scared by anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Im torn, most people say this is an owl, I think it is, but i saw a few hawk pictures online and it looks like them too. Wish there was someway to verify because its very rare to see them. Looking at it closer now, it could be the red tail hawk. I don't see the trademark Owl ears on the bird in that picture but there are some owls who could fit the bill as not all owls have those trademark ears: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yeah, I just sent the pic to a guy who bird watches for a hobby, its 99% a red tailed Hawk, although he did say it was the biggest one he had ever seen and without seeing the face could not be 100% Oh well, a cool site up close. That thing wasn't scared by anything. There are at least 4-5 Red tail Hawks that live in Bayside Queens area and hunt in Little Neck Bay area. Couple Ospreys also. Cool birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 There are at least 4-5 Red tail Hawks that live in Bayside Queens area and hunt in Little Neck Bay area. Couple Ospreys also. Cool birds. In the town I grew up in, there was a bald Eagle preserve. I have seen them flying around the preserve area multiple times including a time just a few weeks back when I was visiting an old neighbor. Unbelievable sight to see those things soaring through the sky. I have also seen a bunch of Chicken Hawks in various areas of New Jersey over the years, they are huge friggin' birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Nice discussion. The last few days, guidance has been building heights on/around the 25th and expanding the Atlantic ridge west into the area for end of the month. We'll see if it continues and if a warmer signal emerges, if we can dry things out. After some below normal days next tue - thu, we may push temps back to and above normal by the weekend before labor day. We'll see if the warmth materializes and continues into the week of the 29th, guidance has been building heights but is keeping the brunt of the warmth and heat south and west of the area. Perhaps our next shot at 90s between the 25th and 31st... EWR and NYC still only have 3 and 4 days below normal this month with the next few at or above before the Tuesday front next week. Pending on how warm and dry we can get between the 25th and 31st, we'll see how much we end the month near or above normal for August. 12z guidance comes in warmer for the 25th and beyond period. Atlantic ridge muscling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12z guidance comes in warmer for the 25th and beyond period. Atlantic ridge muscling in looks a lot like the ridge we saw in December when the storms were being pushed out to see and England was seeing record snow. When it finally became a west based NAO, it was show time. N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Depending on how strong that ridging is, is going to have a large impact on whether or not we see a tropical threat down the road. I'm sure most people are already well aware what the models are showing for the last weekend of August in terms of a potential Hurricane impact in the southeast before a significant recurve towards our region. It is defintily fantasy land but they are really talking this up on the main forum. The GFS has had this for over ten runs in a row now which is pretty impressive for a CV system which is just in wave status at the moment. The Euro has been off an on with this system. 12z has it but it gets shreaded trying to cross Hispanolia. Here was the 06Z GFS at hr 300 after a FL landfall And 12z shifted west after a SC landfall. Notice the blocking high over Northern Canada, because it takes a quicker route to the coast it gets there faster and the ridge builds in differently. This could be a very wet and windy scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 In the town I grew up in, there was a bald Eagle preserve. I have seen them flying around the preserve area multiple times including a time just a few weeks back when I was visiting an old neighbor. Unbelievable sight to see those things soaring through the sky. I have also seen a bunch of Chicken Hawks in various areas of New Jersey over the years, they are huge friggin' birds. Watching Ospreys nose dive from thousand+ feet high and grabbing a 15" fish with precision is amazing. Have seen it lots of times in little neck bay and also Manhasset Bay, where there are at least 5 Osprey nests. Have also seen an Osprey nose dive and grab a rabbit at a lake on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The GFS being consistent at 240-264 hours doesn't mean much...it could be consistently wrong. That being said, with the rising NAO, higher pressures near the Canadian Maritimes could make an East Coast landfall more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 what is worse, 300 hour winter maps being posted talking about how much snow we will get or 300 hour hurricane maps being posted about landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 what is worse, 300 hour winter maps being posted talking about how much snow we will get or 300 hour hurricane maps being posted about landfalls. what is wrong with you? I clearly stated that it was fantasy land and not a very serious discussion, just something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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