August NYC Metro WX Disco

[SACRUS]

Not to keep bringing this up, but this looks a great deal like that very rainy week we had in October 2005.

Im trying to remember we've had a few record rain events in the last few years but was the oct '05 deluge over 4 or 5 days? I hope the models are wrong about fri/sat and its not another flooding rain. Either way warmer and drier times ahead once past then.

[A-L-E-X]

Im trying to remember we've had a few record rain events in the last few years but was the oct '05 deluge over 4 or 5 days? I hope the models are wrong about fri/sat and its not another flooding rain. Either way warmer and drier times ahead once past then.

3 days I think and a foot and a half of rain on the island.

[Allsnow]

Im trying to remember we've had a few record rain events in the last few years but was the oct '05 deluge over 4 or 5 days? I hope the models are wrong about fri/sat and its not another flooding rain. Either way warmer and drier times ahead once past then.

Yeah both 12z runs of the euro and gfs are pushing 2 inches of rain for fri-saturday......i hope its wrong also...have a concert friday night to go to at the pnc

[CAT5ANDREW]

Im trying to remember we've had a few record rain events in the last few years but was the oct '05 deluge over 4 or 5 days?  I hope the models are wrong about fri/sat and its not another flooding rain.  Either way warmer and drier times ahead once past then.

The first deluge began in the early morning of OCT 8th and the last was on my 39th birthday OCT 14th.

[Alpha5]

Still light rain hair, radar looks more promising though. Hope we can get some decent sun in tomorrow

[Cfa]

Why do you deserve it? Above normal April thru August with a record warm summer last year, we are due for some cool weather.

We overpayed our dues in December & January, I like the way "mother nature" is making up for that total mishap.

[winterwarlock]

we deserve because we have been getting way too much rain and clouds lately thats why...have you cool weather in the winter

[Sundog]

we deserve because we have been getting way too much rain and clouds lately thats why...have you cool weather in the winter

It didn't rain here for basically a month straight. You should be jumping for joy that we managed to have such a dry streak when you very well know the reputation for cloudy, humid, milky skies with constant chances of rain we have here in the tri state area.

[winterwarlock]

It didn't rain here for basically a month straight. You should be jumping for joy that we managed to have such a dry streak when you very well know the reputation for cloudy, humid, milky skies with constant chances of rain we have here in the tri state area.

maybe where you were but I already had about 4-5 inches in the last month leading up to this last dumper

[ag3]

Long range of euro shows a little heat on day 9-10. But nothing crazy.

[Sundog]

maybe where you were but I already had about 4-5 inches in the last month leading up to this last dumper

I was referring to most of July. We had a hell of a dry streak.

[ag3]

Through August 14th:

LGA: +.7

NYC: +1.7

JFK: +1.8

ISP: +2.3

EWR: +2.4

[TheTrials]

Through August 14th:

LGA: +.7

NYC: +1.7

JFK: +1.8

ISP: +2.3

EWR: +2.4

With a few cool nights and some more rainy days, these could be down to 0 even for Newark.

[winterwarlock]

With a few cool nights and some more rainy days, these could be down to 0 even for Newark.

thats going to be a longshot, nights will be warm when its cloudy and days still are forecast to be quite warm for the rest of August

[ag3]

12z euro is steady temps, with a decent amount of rain. Dont see any big warmups thru day 10. Last night's 0z euro had a little warmup days 9-10, but not 12z.

There is major heat confined in the SW USA. Should eventually, head ENE, but impossible to tell what will be left of it, at that time.

[CAT5ANDREW]

12z euro is steady temps, with a decent amount of rain. Dont see any big warmups thru day 10. Last night's 0z euro had a little warmup days 9-10, but not 12z.There is major heat confined in the SW USA. Should eventually, head ENE, but impossible to tell what will be left of it, at that time.<img src="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/f216.gif" />

We may see 90 degrees a couple of times more but the 95+ days are over until next summer.The ground is so saturated the sun is going to have trouble giving us blast furnace heat,even if we do get drier in the next week.

[ag3]

Turning out to be a gorgeous evening.

Perfect.

[SACRUS]

Turning out to be a gorgeous evening.

Perfect.

Yeah it is very nice out with the Florida skies and southern Cal-like temps.

[nzucker]

Fall:

[SACRUS]

12z euro is steady temps, with a decent amount of rain. Dont see any big warmups thru day 10. Last night's 0z euro had a little warmup days 9-10, but not 12z.

There is major heat confined in the SW USA. Should eventually, head ENE, but impossible to tell what will be left of it, at that time.

The oz and subsequent 12z runs were quite cooler in the longer range on both the euro and gfs from yesterday's (8/14) runs. Still looks like we warm up to and above normal by later in the weekend and early next week. The 18z (fwiw) came in warm again, so its anyone's guess. Enesembles had looked warm to hot to end August so maybe the models are sniffing one more trough the middle of next week before the atlantic ridghe builds back on/around the 25th. None the less plenty wet through the next few days with chances of storms.

[Guest Pamela]

CPC graphics have good proabability of below normal temperatures in the area August 21 - 29....(the 6-10 and 8 -14 day outlooks).

[MJO812]

Fall:

It's getting closer

[earthlight]

although the euro was warmer last night, most of the medium range models keep a mean trough over the eastern us. even with rising mid level heights at times, the mid range guidance has below normal to normal temperatures through this range. i think it's going to be a few weeks until we get any heat back into the area. in these types of patterns, there is usually a last shot of heat...probably early to mid september if i had to guess.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSTDEP2_12z/D12.gif

[Alpha5]

although the euro was warmer last night, most of the medium range models keep a mean trough over the eastern us. even with rising mid level heights at times, the mid range guidance has below normal to normal temperatures through this range. i think it's going to be a few weeks until we get any heat back into the area. in these types of patterns, there is usually a last shot of heat...probably early to mid september if i had to guess.

http://www.meteo.psu...EP2_12z/D12.gif

Saw that as well, by the end of the run, the Euro really drives up a +PNA and develops a cutoff over SE Canada. The 0z didnt have the cutoff, but still developed a deep ULL trough over the east.

CPC agrees on colder weather

To be honest, I've really liked the hot weather over the past few weeks. If its summer, might as well let it be hot. No point of having 60-70 degree days in late August.

[ag3]

6z GFS is average to below average weather for its entire run. Its also extremely wet.

0z Euro took away the day 9-10 heat and its also average to below average for its entire run.

August is +.6 to +2 areawide as of yesterday.

LGA will be negative in the next couple days and other stations will be below 1.

August probably ends up with a negative departure in most locations or slightly above.

[SACRUS]

6z GFS is average to below average weather for its entire run. Its also extremely wet.

0z Euro took away the day 9-10 heat and its also average to below average for its entire run.

August is +.6 to +2 areawide as of yesterday.

LGA will be negative in the next couple days and other stations will be below 1.

August probably ends up with a negative departure in most locations or slightly above.

Euro did lose that warmth in the 8/23 - beyond timeframe the last 2 runs. The 00z/06 gfs looks warmer later next week and into the final days of August (above normal for this time of year). I do think the timing will be later in August on/around the 25th when a priod of above normal returns - assuming we can dry things out. Initially there were some signals it might come sooner and I will likely be wrong in that assumption. Overall I agree that August will likely close out near normal for most locations with a range of 4 - 6 90 (+) days. This is the first time since June I'll have to turn the heater on in the pool.

[SACRUS]

Hopefully we see steady progress in getting breaks in the clouds and the overall cloud deck track north and east, out of the region this afternoon.

[A-L-E-X]

It's a nice sunny afternoon here, just like it was yesterday lol.

[SnowDemon]

There were some beautiful cloud decks out over the Meadowlands this afternoon.

[Alpha5]

12z Euro continues to drive multiple troughs down into the east, high is centered over the SW CONUS, no true torches upcoming it seems