ag3 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 12z NAM is holding off any real rain until late Sunday night. We might be able to salvage ths whole weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Wouldnt surprise me but at the same time the NAM is notorious for slowing things down too much. I could see this being one of those events where its pouring in Pennsylvania and the rain is moving painstakingly slow to the north northeast. EWR looks to have just their 3rd below normal day in the past month, though it will likely only be a degree or two at most since the normal is 85 12z NAM is holding off any real rain until late Sunday night. We might be able to salvage ths whole weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Long range of Euro and GFS both show the same type of pattern we are in right now. No real shots of heat, in the next 10 days+. They both also continue to be pretty wet with multiple chances at storms, both convective and from an actual lows off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Wouldnt surprise me but at the same time the NAM is notorious for slowing things down too much. I could see this being one of those events where its pouring in Pennsylvania and the rain is moving painstakingly slow to the north northeast. EWR looks to have just their 3rd below normal day in the past month, though it will likely only be a degree or two at most since the normal is 85 We are starting to eat away at the positive monthly departures now. Through August 11th: LGA: +1.5 JFK: +2.6 NYC: +2.9 EWR: +3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 NAM precip looks way to spotty with the orientation and strength of the trough and the low pressure system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Wouldnt surprise me but at the same time the NAM is notorious for slowing things down too much. I could see this being one of those events where its pouring in Pennsylvania and the rain is moving painstakingly slow to the north northeast. EWR looks to have just their 3rd below normal day in the past month, though it will likely only be a degree or two at most since the normal is 85 My wager is that we get pretty much bupkis from the City on east. This seems to be one of those pulse-convective systems that pours on NJ/PA and gets wrecked by the marine layers that sit over us, particularly on the south wind. I'm not holding out much hope for Long Island in particular to see much besides a lot of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I don't know, the models have been pretty consistent bringing precip to the whole area, its more of a timing issue My wager is that we get pretty much bupkis from the City on east. This seems to be one of those pulse-convective systems that pours on NJ/PA and gets wrecked by the marine layers that sit over us, particularly on the south wind. I'm not holding out much hope for Long Island in particular to see much besides a lot of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The GFS has been a little more consistant with precip output than the NAM the past few runs.... For the most part, it has had the start time generally around the same time frame. The NAM has been all over the place, so I'm a little weary about the NAM right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 today is one of the nicest days I've ever experienced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 today is one of the nicest days I've ever experienced Amazing day. 82/52 and still hot enough for the pool. Sun's strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Amazing day. 82/52 and still hot enough for the pool. Sun's strong. Yeah without a doubt. The angle is changing but it's still very strong today. Made the mistake of wearing jeans. Now I'm poolside and it feels much better. A little chilly when you get out but not a big deal. Tomorrow will be a glorious pool day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 If this was 80% of our summer weather,it would be perfect and I would love it as much as winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 High of 81.3F today after a low of 61.3F. Perfection, though I've been inside talking to Spanish teachers and planning the curriculum, as my job starts in three weeks or so. I have a lot of preparation to do as a first-year teacher, even though I'll only have Spanish I and Spanish II classes to teach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 changing to rain for you, too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Another cool one tonight. 63 right now after 83 for the high. Crazy I'm 15 degrees colder than Newark; they might as well be in a different climate zone 500 miles south. They're at 78F, 2 degrees warmer than Raleigh NC! Talk about UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Another cool one tonight. 63 right now after 83 for the high. Crazy I'm 15 degrees colder than Newark; they might as well be in a different climate zone 500 miles south. They're at 78F, 2 degrees warmer than Raleigh NC! Talk about UHI. It gets worse in fall when we have our first frost halfway through November LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 So much for a mostly sunny day, but still not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 So much for a mostly sunny day, but still not bad Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Looks good to me. Yeah so far so good, my concern was the clouds pushing in from around BWI/C-PA. May get cloudy or in/out of the clouds during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Yeah so far so good, my concern was the clouds pushing in from around BWI/C-PA. May get cloudy or in/out of the clouds during the afternoon. Perfection in Sea Bright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 GFS has an inch of rain by 06z tonight, seems a little early no? Yeah so far so good, my concern was the clouds pushing in from around BWI/C-PA. May get cloudy or in/out of the clouds during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Perfection in Sea Bright. Here come the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Here come the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 GFS has an inch of rain by 06z tonight, seems a little early no? 12z NAM has nothing in this area yet by 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 12z NAM has nothing in this area yet by 6z. There is that line of thunderstorms consolidating over the Delmarva and starting to migrate Northeast...so we have to see where that takes us tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 There is that line of thunderstorms consolidating over the Delmarva and starting to migrate Northeast...so we have to see where that takes us tonight. Didnt you move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Here are my thoughts for the second half of August.While the true heat is over,We are going to remain above normal tempwise for the rest of the month.We can see 90+ a couple of more times but the 95 and above is over.The cooler pattern for the second half just wont verify.The warm SST's will warm up any below normal air mass out in the upper midwest and Ohio Vallley.THe big question is do we remain far above above normal to offically have NYC finish in the TOP 10 hottest summer for the second consecutive year (Last year was #1)or do we fall just short?Either way,those of you who forecastd a warm/hot summer should pat yourselves on the back for a job well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/usa_raw_temp_8day_avg.png August has cooled off big time for the nation. Nothing like July! I'm betting the month ends around normal if not a tad below around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 http://coaps.fsu.edu...mp_8day_avg.png August has cooled off big time for the nation. Nothing like July! I'm betting the month ends around normal if not a tad below around here. I wonder how well this matches up with July 1977 vs August 1977 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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