BlizzardWarning Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I think its the next cold front everyone should watch out for in regards to heavy rain and severe weather. 000FXUS61 KOKX 110224 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1024 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON LOW PRES SUN INTO MON. HIGH PRES FRI-SAT. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS FCST. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH WINDS SAT AFTN TRENDED TOWARDS THE STRONGER NAM ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPR LOW SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR OVER NWRN WA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND ALLOW FOR LOW PRES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT REACHES A POINT INVOF THE CWA 00Z MON. 12Z ECMWF/GFS/GEM FOCUSING IN ON SUN INTO MON FOR A ROUND OF STORMY WEATHER. INITIAL WAVE IS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE S IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED SHRA/TSTMS. CHANCE POPS INCLUDED FOR THIS SAT NIGHT. FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT...INCREASING SLY FLOW WILL PUMP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE CWA...COMBINING WITH THE GULF MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM EVIDENCED BY THE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE ECMWF. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SO MDT PCPN INCLUDED IN THE FCST. GFS ML MUCAPE INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS...SO INCLUDED IN THE FCST AS WELL. WINDY E OF THE LOW TRACK WITH BL WINDS PROGGED AOA 30KT AT TIMES. MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON MON AS THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP A 2ND LOW OVER THE OCEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LAGGING H5 TROF AXIS. 12Z ECMWF IS LINING UP INTO THIS CAMP...BASICALLY STALLING THE LOW S OF LI BEFORE EJECTING IT LATE. FCST TAKES THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD NE OF THE CWA BY LATE MON MRNG...WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES IN THE AFTN WITH THE UPR TROF. BECAUSE THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THIS SYSTEM...POPS FOR THE EVENT HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO CHANCE FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 00z euro is 2-3 inches of rain for the area 00z gfs is 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 hopefully the models bust badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Beautiful morning. Low humidity, low dew and a nice crisp, cool feeling in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 hopefully the models bust badly when that many agree on a heavy rain event, we're likely to see it---the timing could be off, but b/w Sunday-Tue, expect a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 when that many agree on a heavy rain event, we're likely to see it---the timing could be off, but b/w Sunday-Tue, expect a good soaking. Wows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 62.1 degree low, made it down to the fcst. 73 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 we are rapidly losing sunset time now...it's 7:59 pm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 we are rapidly losing sunset time now...it's 7:59 pm now Yeah noticed as well; we've lost about 1 hr of daylight already since June 21st. Crickets are out in droves too. If only we could control time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Yeah noticed as well; we've lost about 1 hr of daylight already since June 21st. Crickets are out in droves too. If only we could control time. it just sucks...I can't stand autumn for some reasons. It's beautiful and all, but the sunset gets earlier...it gets chilly...it rains a ton...the grounds all moist and the leaves are wet..ugh. by far my least favorite thing about winter is the sun setting at 4:30. that has to be the most ridiculous thing ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Yeah and for those of us up at 6am, its light but barely so ....and wow that's some incredible rainfall...you would think we had a tropical disturbance coming up the coast Yeah noticed as well; we've lost about 1 hr of daylight already since June 21st. Crickets are out in droves too. If only we could control time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 it just sucks...I can't stand autumn for some reasons. It's beautiful and all, but the sunset gets earlier...it gets chilly...it rains a ton...the grounds all moist and the leaves are wet..ugh. by far my least favorite thing about winter is the sun setting at 4:30. that has to be the most ridiculous thing ever. yeah, but more darkness keeps the snow from melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 we are rapidly losing sunset time now...it's 7:59 pm now This is a sad time of the year... Fall is rapidly approaching and before you know it- labor day is here- I find that once you get past labor day, even though you may have some warm days, with the sun angle lacking- you know that the feel of those crisp fall nights are only a few weeks away.. The "feel" and "sight" of summer are pretty much gone by the last week of august.. Hey though - fall is a great time of year and we must remember that where we live, in the Upper middle atlantic/lower new england- we have some of the most diverse weather year round. From raging heat, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, to blizzards.. We have it all and shouldn't ever complain, from a weather enthusiast stand point. jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 it just sucks...I can't stand autumn for some reasons. It's beautiful and all, but the sunset gets earlier...it gets chilly...it rains a ton...the grounds all moist and the leaves are wet..ugh. by far my least favorite thing about winter is the sun setting at 4:30. that has to be the most ridiculous thing ever. As a Kid, for whatever reason, i loved the early setting of the sun.. But that was because I was home and school was over and it felt "right" b/c it was cold out etc.. Then again my parents were home as well.. So that had something to do with it I guess.. However, now working till 7ish at night each day- my feelings about the sun setting this early has changed vastly... It just sucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 This is the worst time of the year for me. As much as I love the snow I hate the coldness and seeing everything dying off. I reach a point around October first where I can't wait for the first snowfall because at least its something interesting. I'm one of those people that say if its cold it might as well be snowing and if its not it might as well be sunny and 85. Then come March I try to hold onto the snow but its alot easier giving up the snow knowing that the spring and warm weather are just around the corner. Hopefully this coming winter is just as snowy if not snowier than the last two (a hard thing to achieve I know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 This is best time of year. You don't sweat or freeze your a$$ off! Football , hockey and baseball all co-exist for the briefest of times. Girls get all dressed down for Halloween. Drinking and socializing by campfire is prob one of my favorite things to do. Its my birthday coming up and most importantly, all the snow weenies strart coming out of the woodwork!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 This is best time of year. You don't sweat or freeze your a$$ off! Football , hockey and baseball all co-exist for the briefest of times. Girls get all dressed down for Halloween. Drinking and socializing by campfire is prob one of my favorite things to do. Its my birthday coming up and most importantly, all the snow weenies strart coming out of the woodwork!!! there is no better time for eye candy than the late spring and summer with short shorts, tank tops, flip flops and of course bikini's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Big east coast through for this weekend, another sign that the seasons are changing. The NAM is very non-progressive and dumps over 5" of rain in PA while we get nothing through early Sunday. Meanwhile the 6z GFS was basically a wash out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Big east coast through for this weekend, another sign that the seasons are changing. The NAM is very non-progressive and dumps over 5" of rain in PA while we get nothing through early Sunday. Meanwhile the 6z GFS was basically a wash out Anything that gives me next to nothing will probably be right. E PA has been a hot spot for convection lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 it just sucks...I can't stand autumn for some reasons. It's beautiful and all, but the sunset gets earlier...it gets chilly...it rains a ton...the grounds all moist and the leaves are wet..ugh. by far my least favorite thing about winter is the sun setting at 4:30. that has to be the most ridiculous thing ever. Yeah I definitely hear you, the changing of seasons from summer to autumn is hard. Although once winter gets here and I'm in that mode of snow/cold, I actually enjoy the early sunsets, especially when a snowstorm is on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Actually nothing through sunday evening Big east coast through for this weekend, another sign that the seasons are changing. The NAM is very non-progressive and dumps over 5" of rain in PA while we get nothing through early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I tend to agree, back East autumn was always my least favorite season growing up. Temperatures cooling but not cold enough for snow, so you always felt cold without the benefits. Days shortening. School starting up again. The only good thing about fall was the change of the leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I tend to agree, back East autumn was always my least favorite season growing up. Temperatures cooling but not cold enough for snow, so you always felt cold without the benefits. Days shortening. School starting up again. The only good thing about fall was the change of the leaves. and Football on Sundays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 12z GFS continues to be very wet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 can we salvage saturday as a beach day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 can we salvage saturday as a beach day? Saturday looks decent. Mid 80's. Clouds probably roll in mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Saturday looks decent. Mid 80's. Clouds probably roll in mid to late afternoon. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 First fall like system of the year..it will get hot again,but the fall season is starting to show it's stuff..rain in the 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 seems that HPC made a significant increase in their QPF output for Sun-Mon over the area. Anyone else notice this for their afternoon packages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I believe that was as of this morning, 3 to 6" across the area with heaviest to the north seems that HPC made a significant increase in their QPF output for Sun-Mon over the area. Anyone else notice this for their afternoon packages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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