TheTrials Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 you could always look at model soundings and determine if there's enough instability present to support convection unless he doesnt know how to read a model sounding because not everyone here is a trained met. Could you post the sounding and show him what to look for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 This weekend rain is it just gonna be boring old rain storm or tstorms and wind possible? you could always look at model soundings and determine if there's enough instability present to support convection here is the sounding at 108hours from the 12z GFS. It shows a decent sweat and total totals aren't bad but Lifted Index is not that good meaning there could some convection in here but not severe. I post this hour because the GFS has the heaviest precip around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 you could always look at model soundings and determine if there's enough instability present to support convection kinda hard if you don't have a met degree and/or taken a Meteorology class in college which are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Saturated up to 200 mb is pretty dang impressive... here is the sounding at 108hours from the 12z GFS. It shows a decent sweat and total totals aren't bad but Lifted Index is not that good meaning there could some convection in here but not severe. I post this hour because the GFS has the heaviest precip around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Thanks all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Saturated up to 200 mb is pretty dang impressive... There was a sounding that was saturated up to 200mb for the Jan 27th storm and I remember earthlight posting "sounding of the year" It's gonna pour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Rockland,Westchester,Putnam,Orange,Sullivan and Dutchess Countys have had one of their wettest summers in recent memory. We only had 1.6" here in July, so it will take another huge rainstorm to make this one of the wetter summers for Southern Westchester. June was very wet with 6.53", and August has had a bit over 4", but I doubt that's close to the wettest summer on record for Dobbs Ferry given some of the big tropical storms we've seen as well as the June 2006 type set-ups. That being said, what the 12z ECM and 12z GFS are advertising for late this weekend could put us on the brink of records, especially if we were to see a tropical event in late August. What a turnaround in the rain department. It's exactly as you said. Ever since the heatwave I've been getting tons of rain. My grass is lush and green again. I had 1.39" yesterday. It made driving horrible, and I'm glad it's not raining tonight for my nighttime delivery shift, but it's still much-needed rainfall. Gardens and lawns look 100% better. I now have a melon growing on one of my plants, and the arugula is loving it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Sea-breeze front is aligned like a 'slinky' across Long Island per KOKX radar today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 There was a sounding that was saturated up to 200mb for the Jan 27th storm and I remember earthlight posting "sounding of the year" It's gonna pour. I remember that, too bad so much of that QPF went to sleet here. Amazing what good dynamics can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I remember that, too bad so much of that QPF went to sleet here. Amazing what good dynamics can do To be fair, the "year" had only started 27 days before that storm occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 We only had 1.6" here in July, so it will take another huge rainstorm to make this one of the wetter summers for Southern Westchester. June was very wet with 6.53", and August has had a bit over 4", but I doubt that's close to the wettest summer on record for Dobbs Ferry given some of the big tropical storms we've seen as well as the June 2006 type set-ups. That being said, what the 12z ECM and 12z GFS are advertising for late this weekend could put us on the brink of records, especially if we were to see a tropical event in late August. I had 1.39" yesterday. It made driving horrible, and I'm glad it's not raining tonight for my nighttime delivery shift, but it's still much-needed rainfall. Gardens and lawns look 100% better. I now have a melon growing on one of my plants, and the arugula is loving it! Numbers much different here by month, June was the wettest, and July 2nd wettest, 4.43" for June, 3.81" July, and only 1" for August thus far. So 9.22" of rain for the summer here, compared to 12.13" at your place, about a 3" difference. T-storms making pcpn total maxima quite locallized. Amazing evening. 80/60 outside right now and feeling cool actually with the sun goin' down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 yeah this sucks. I want to go in the pool but it's feeling pretty chilly out there. meteor shower tonight by the way. go check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 yeah this sucks. I want to go in the pool but it's feeling pretty chilly out there. meteor shower tonight by the way. go check it out. The Spa doesnt offer warm towels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 yeah this sucks. I want to go in the pool but it's feeling pretty chilly out there. meteor shower tonight by the way. go check it out. What time ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 yeah this sucks. I want to go in the pool but it's feeling pretty chilly out there. meteor shower tonight by the way. go check it out. Its 80 degrees!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Its 80 degrees!! But if you add in the wind chill factor, it feels like 79. Seriously, this is the coolest the air has felt in nearly 2 months, and when your body gets adapted to 90/70 almost every day, then 80/60 feels chilly. I feel like a sissy Floridian in mid January as a cold front's coming through with 65-70 degrees and gusty winds, wanting to bundle up in a parka and earmuffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 But if you add in the wind chill factor, it feels like 79. Seriously, this is the coolest the air has felt in nearly 2 months, and when your body gets adapted to 90/70 almost every day, then 80/60 feels chilly. I feel like a sissy Floridian in mid January as a cold front's coming through with 65-70 degrees and gusty winds, wanting to bundle up in a parka and earmuffs. Also, getting out of the pool around 6-7pm was definitely chilly with the wind and lower humidity. World's apart from this morning's high dews, felt the air getting progressively drier as the afternoon went on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 OT..But should Metfan start boarding up his CVS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Fantasy land awesomeness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 But if you add in the wind chill factor, it feels like 79. Seriously, this is the coolest the air has felt in nearly 2 months, and when your body gets adapted to 90/70 almost every day, then 80/60 feels chilly. I feel like a sissy Floridian in mid January as a cold front's coming through with 65-70 degrees and gusty winds, wanting to bundle up in a parka and earmuffs. You are another crazy one. I think you were the one that posted about sitting in front of the fireplace when it was in the 60s. It is still warm out, and definitely not too cold to go swimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 81 °F As of 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 You are another crazy one. I think you were the one that posted about sitting in front of the fireplace when it was in the 60s. That was back in late June in Cape Cod when conditions were hvy rain, NE 20-30mph winds and temperatures in the upper 50s. Pretty raw. At no point this summer would I have been in front of a fireplace in the NYC area, that's for sure. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of the cold, just not in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Staying warmer than expected tonight, 75.9/66. Forecast low is 62F so we better hurry up and cool down. Still mostly cloudy at HPN, and the airport was at 76/61 last hour. Are you radiating down in Monmouth, Tom? I can't believe I had to turn the A/C on again, horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 It is still warm out, and definitely not too cold to go swimming. Agree, can still swim in this weather, but IMO it's much more comfortable in humid air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Staying warmer than expected tonight, 75.9/66. Forecast low is 62F so we better hurry up and cool down. Still mostly cloudy at HPN, and the airport was at 76/61 last hour. Are you radiating down in Monmouth, Tom? I can't believe I had to turn the A/C on again, horrid. Cooler than you at 71.2/63 right now, but I've still got 1-2mph winds. Having trouble decoupling, but once we do, should drop fairly quickly into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Cooler than you at 71.2/63 right now, but I've still got 1-2mph winds. Having trouble decoupling, but once we do, should drop fairly quickly into the 60s. Looks like the oven Newark is about 10F warmer than me at 80 right now, as is LGA. NYC 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Looks like the oven Newark is about 10F warmer than me at 80 right now, as is LGA. NYC 79. This cool shot has been downgraded on the models...doesn't look that impressive to me. Hit 81.8F today, having trouble dropping below 70F, and NWS has 81F/84F for highs the next two days. We barely get to the 10C contour at 850mb...not anything particularly cold for mid August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 72.1 here, a pretty warm night so far. Forecasted low is 57 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 <b></b><b></b><b></b>I would love to see these temps and dewpoints,but the most likely scenario is for temps to be 5-7 degrees warmer but with hopefully keep the lower dewpoints.The models always have a cool bias this time of year especially.The SSTs are to warm at this point to really allow any cooler air to reach us.I will be happy with lower dewpoints and temps in the mid and upper 80s.BTW,Larry Cosgrove believes that we are done for the truly scorching heat.Hopefully that is the case. This is why I dont get excited about August cold fronts.It is a "crisp" 80 degrees out there now.At least the dewpoints are lower so be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 This is why I dont get excited about August cold fronts.It is a "crisp" 80 degrees out there now.At least the dewpoints are lower so be happy with that. Yeah cold fronts arent very noteworthy here until fall actually begins in late September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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