SACRUS Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Through August 8th: LGA: +1.8 JFK: +2.8 NYC: +3.6 EWR: +4.1 starting Thursday and through the weekend we'll knock these down some. TEB: +3.7 ISP: +2.9 TTN: +5.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Yeah we've had a pretty predictable Indian Summer almost every year. 2007 being the most pronounced, Couldn't believe how it pushed the peak foliage back 2 to 3 weeks Good stuff! Also of interest is the seemingly routine warmup we have around the end of October/Halloween the last few years or so. EWR 10/31: 2010 : 60 (in the low 70s day or 2 before) 2009: 74 2008: 65 2007: 66 2006: 71 2005: 70 2004: 74 2003: 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 About an hour or so before clouds and rain arrive. Temps in the low 80s and likely not going much higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 It looks we'll be around average or slightly below for the next couple of weeks ans then a warm period late august through labor day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Warm autumns are depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Warm autumns are depressing. This. Nothing like frost on the pumpkin. I am a big orchard fan and visiting them with 80 degree temps is depressing and quite nasty. However, I will gladly sacrifice a warm autumn for a cold, snowy and long lasting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 HPC has a good dose of rain for the next 24 hrs especially just north of NYC. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 oddly enough,the ONLY seasons in my lifetime which were in the TOP 10 coldest were the Autumn of 1976 and Winter of 1976-77.SEPT/OCT and the first half of NOV 1992 was one of the coolest in my lifetime.The Autumn of 1996 was also cool as well as the Autumn of 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 oddly enough,the ONLY seasons in my lifetime which were in the TOP 10 coldest were the Autumn of 1976 and Winter of 1976-77.SEPT/OCT and the first half of NOV 1992 was one of the coolest in my lifetime.The Autumn of 1996 was also cool as well as the Autumn of 2000. One of the worst memories for me was Fall 1994. It was warm day after warm day and I could just tell winter was going to suck. Sure enough, huge fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Sad that we have no instability to work with today. Will be a good soaking rain, maybe a rumble of thunder, but the soundings are pathetic, even with some sun out just too much stable marine air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 One of the worst memories for me was Fall 1994. It was warm day after warm day and I could just tell winter was going to suck. Sure enough, huge fail. one storm up here in mid feb that dumped 14 inches...that was it--reminds me of 2005-06 in some ways--one biggie and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 In some ways that winter is the worst one of my lifetime. As bad as 97-98 and 01-02 were at least we had plenty of nor'easters and there were a few threats to track. But 94-95 had one good storm and like barely one other measurable snowfall. Looking back though 01-02 is probably still the worst because we kept waiting for the cold air to come and it just never did. 97-98 was over before it started. One of the worst memories for me was Fall 1994. It was warm day after warm day and I could just tell winter was going to suck. Sure enough, huge fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 one storm up here in mid feb that dumped 14 inches...that was it--reminds me of 2005-06 in some ways--one biggie and that was it. now now, lets just jump off a bridge here. 05-06 was a million times better than 94-95. We had some snow around thanksgiving, the December storm which dropped 6-10 across the area, a nasty cold front and post front snow in January, and we had Feb 12 which even though it melted the next day was a cool storm to watch and experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 now now, lets just jump off a bridge here. 05-06 was a million times better than 94-95. We had some snow around thanksgiving, the December storm which dropped 6-10 across the area, a nasty cold front and post front snow in January, and we had Feb 12 which even though it melted the next day was a cool storm to watch and experience. I had less than 10" for the 1994-95 winter in Brooklyn...The big storm changed to rain where I lived at least a hour before Central Park did...I measured 8" from that storm...we got another inch later that month...A dusting in January and nothing else...1997-98 and 2001-02 are my horrible choices...1972-73 a close third...1988-89 fourth...1994-95 fifth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 94-95 is so unique just for the shear lack of events. Even in State College where we usually got plenty of lake effect/clipper type of snows there were really only 2 events. The early feb storm where we got 5" (10-14 was predicted) and one clipper at the end of month / early march. now now, lets just jump off a bridge here. 05-06 was a million times better than 94-95. We had some snow around thanksgiving, the December storm which dropped 6-10 across the area, a nasty cold front and post front snow in January, and we had Feb 12 which even though it melted the next day was a cool storm to watch and experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 storms on the way along the warm front. spc wrf is a nice hit. wouldn't be surprised to see some strong convection later. currently doesn't look too hot given the orientation of the developing stronger storms well to our south and the less convective precipitation near our area.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 88-89 will always sting because of the Feb 24th storm that went out to sea. Dec' of 89 was also awful. Snow chances that changed to rain, storms that missed us and a waste of a great arctic outbreak. Take out the thanksgiving storm and 1989 is probably the worst calendar snow year of all time (or at least in my lifetime). I had less than 10" for the 1994-95 winter in Brooklyn...The big storm changed to rain where I lived at least a hour before Central Park did...I measured 8" from that storm...we got another inch later that month...A dusting in January and nothing else...1997-98 and 2001-02 are my horrible choices...1972-73 a close third...1988-89 fourth...1994-95 fifth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 88-89 will always sting because of the Feb 24th storm that went out to sea. Dec' of 89 was also awful. Snow chances that changed to rain, storms that missed us and a waste of a great arctic outbreak. Take out the thanksgiving storm and 1989 is probably the worst calendar snow year of all time (or at least in my lifetime). the 1980's did have a snow drought but managed to have an April Blizzard...A mid February mega storm...two very cold Christmas's...A mid November snow and ice storm...A white Thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 One of the worst memories for me was Fall 1994. It was warm day after warm day and I could just tell winter was going to suck. Sure enough, huge fail. Yep.I remember that was the first season WINS didnt have Accuweather for some reason.They had Joe Rao do the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 so basically the 02-03 winter spread out over a decade (minus the November/thanksgiving part) the 1980's did have a snow drought but managed to have an April Blizzard...A mid February mega storm...two very cold Christmas's...A mid November snow and ice storm...A white Thanksgiving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 88-89 will always sting because of the Feb 24th storm that went out to sea. Dec' of 89 was also awful. Snow chances that changed to rain, storms that missed us and a waste of a great arctic outbreak. Take out the thanksgiving storm and 1989 is probably the worst calendar snow year of all time (or at least in my lifetime). 1989 had a 5 inch storm in JAN,a 4 inch storm in Marxh and the White Thanksgiving as well as a couple of inches right before the New Year. 1997,1998 and 1999 all were Horrible here with little snowfall,worse than 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 88-89 will always sting because of the Feb 24th storm that went out to sea. Dec' of 89 was also awful. Snow chances that changed to rain, storms that missed us and a waste of a great arctic outbreak. Take out the thanksgiving storm and 1989 is probably the worst calendar snow year of all time (or at least in my lifetime). The FEB 1989 storm was not so much out to sea as it literally was a "beach storm" Atlantic City had nearly 18 inches while just 20 miles to the west had nothing. FEB 1989 was somewhat similar to DEC 30 2000 with extreme sharp cutoffs between snow and no snow on an East/West Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 NewYorkCity, NY, ( Lat: 40.72 Lon: -74.02 elevation: 3 m ) Another soundingAnother productAnother locationStart overText Listing Potential Temperature Diagram Information on how to interpret the potential temperature diagram. Sounding text and any error messages. Skew-T LogP Diagram Sounding does not look impressive a very stable profile as potential temp is increasing with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Right. I remember the morning of expecting 4 to 8" (with the possibility for more) and it was snowing as far north as Toms River. I believe they ended up with around 10" while Asbury Park had nothing. Was actually hoping for a snow day as it was supposed to start before dawn. The Dec 15th storm was also supposed to be 4 to 8" but we had 5 minutes of snow before the temp jumped to near 40 and we had windswept heavy rain The FEB 1989 storm was not so much out to sea as it literally was a "beach storm" Atlantic City had nearly 18 inches while just 20 miles to the west had nothing. FEB 1989 was somewhat similar to DEC 30 2000 with extreme sharp cutoffs between snow and no snow on an East/West Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 storms on the way along the warm front. spc wrf is a nice hit. wouldn't be surprised to see some strong convection later. currently doesn't look too hot given the orientation of the developing stronger storms well to our south and the less convective precipitation near our area.0 soundings are bad at 12z. Very stable. Maybe things have changed with some sun, but still, I think anything strong to severe willl be way south. Either way bank on some heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 soundings are bad at 12z. Very stable. Maybe things have changed with some sun, but still, I think anything strong to severe willl be way south. Either way bank on some heavy rain. that batch in pa looks to get here around 3-4pm? Models must develop more along the cold front for this eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 welcome to the "August NYC metro WX Disco" thread......... on this page alone there are references to the winters of 1973, 1989, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2002. lol. . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 welcome to the "August NYC metro WX Disco" thread......... on this page alone there are references to the winters of 1973, 1989, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2002. lol. . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 I think it will be in the city in the next hour or so and could be out of here by 5:00, it's moving pretty quickly that batch in pa looks to get here around 3-4pm? Models must develop more along the cold front for this eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 that batch in pa looks to get here around 3-4pm? Models must develop more along the cold front for this eve? lets see what things look like after the first batch. Maybe we get a wind shift or a more unstable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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