August NYC Metro WX Disco

[Isotherm]

90 yesterday, 90 today, can I squeak out Heatwave #7 with enough sun tomorrow?

as for today being the last 90...no way no how you watch

Hit 90 today and yesterday as well, both days barely at 89.5. Now I'm up to 18 90F days for the season.

[Sundog]

Nice little preview of ULL season. Lol.

Verbatim the coast will have mixing issues.

[A-L-E-X]

Hit 90 today and yesterday as well, both days barely at 89.5. Now I'm up to 18 90F days for the season.

I hit 92 today..... right behind you with 16 days lol.

[A-L-E-X]

I know, I just doubt that.

It has gotten very windy in the past 5 minutes. It feels nice.

I'm pretty confident we will have 90 degree days in early September.

[nzucker]

This has honestly been a disgusting summer...the relentless heat in July, the high humidity, and the lack of cooler than normal nights have conspired to make this the worst summer I've experienced in Dobbs Ferry. I wasn't here for last year, but Central Park was +3.7F for this July and is +3.3F for August, so it can't have been that much worse. I think August will end closer to normal than some expect given the high departure through the 8th, but it still is going to be a warmer than normal month barring a huge Nor'easter/rainstorm that keeps us in the 60s for a couple days.

12z GFS shows the coolest airmass relative to normal moving into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday/Thursday, but the Northeast still gets below 10C at 850mb, which I consider a benchmark for a late-summer cooldown. GFS has backed off the extent/duration of the cold shot a bit, although Thursday and Friday still look to be very comfortable days with much lower dewpoints. According to the 12z GFS, a second cold front moves through Sunday with heavy rain, and then another trough scoots into the area by late next week around Day 9-10. The 12z ECM is basically in agreement, dropping 850s to 10C again on Sunday with a reinforcing shot of cool air in the longer range.

I basically agree with isotherm that the heat is over for the summer, but I think KNYC and KEWR still sneak in a day or two above 90F. Although he is correct in pointing out that our leading analog, 2008, did have a mild September, some of the other analog years actually had cool Septembers such as 1956 and 2000. So I don't see an overwhelming temperature signal for the early fall, except that the NAO block will probably fade some given its intense streak of negative readings and the prognostications of the models regarding an NAO relaxation in mid-late August. That being said, the NAO has verified much more negative this summer than predicted by modeling.

[A-L-E-X]

This has honestly been a disgusting summer...the relentless heat in July, the high humidity, and the lack of cooler than normal nights have conspired to make this the worst summer I've experienced in Dobbs Ferry. I wasn't here for last year, but Central Park was +3.7F for this July and is +3.3F for August, so it can't have been that much worse. I think August will end closer to normal than some expect given the high departure through the 8th, but it still is going to be a warmer than normal month barring a huge Nor'easter/rainstorm that keeps us in the 60s for a couple days.

12z GFS shows the coolest airmass relative to normal moving into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday/Thursday, but the Northeast still gets below 10C at 850mb, which I consider a benchmark for a late-summer cooldown. GFS has backed off the extent/duration of the cold shot a bit, although Thursday and Friday still look to be very comfortable days with much lower dewpoints. According to the 12z GFS, a second cold front moves through Sunday with heavy rain, and then another trough scoots into the area by late next week around Day 9-10. The 12z ECM is basically in agreement, dropping 850s to 10C again on Sunday with a reinforcing shot of cool air in the longer range.

I basically agree with isotherm that the heat is over for the summer, but I think KNYC and KEWR still sneak in a day or two above 90F. Although he is correct in pointing out that our leading analog, 2008, did have a mild September, some of the other analog years actually had cool Septembers such as 1956 and 2000. So I don't see an overwhelming temperature signal for the early fall, except that the NAO block will probably fade some given its intense streak of negative readings and the prognostications of the models regarding an NAO relaxation in mid-late August. That being said, the NAO has verified much more negative this summer than predicted by modeling.

Wasn't the NAO negative last summer also?

It depends on what you mean by is "the heat over"-- you could have easily said that last summer after July also, as we never had a heat wave like that again after what we went through in July. Yes, it won't get that hot but it can still easily get hot and I expect us to have 90 degree days right into early September, like we normally do.

[Alpha5]

74, cleared up nicely.

None of these storms have really packed a punch thus far

[SACRUS]

Wasn't the NAO negative last summer also?

It depends on what you mean by is "the heat over"-- you could have easily said that last summer after July also, as we never had a heat wave like that again after what we went through in July. Yes, it won't get that hot but it can still easily get hot and I expect us to have 90 degree days right into early September, like we normally do.

some have been writing this summer off since the early June heat. While we'll likely have the coolest weather we've had in a while between 8/11 - 8/15, guidance has been hinting at building heights back by the middle/end of next week and I'd say we may get very warm by the 17th.

[earthlight]

what i really want to know is where all the people who were calling for a cooler than normal summer went

[Isotherm]

what i really want to know is where all the people who were calling for a cooler than normal summer went

They moved to Alaska where internet connection doesn't exist, so they're basically dead men walking to us.

[Isotherm]

Wasn't the NAO negative last summer also?

It depends on what you mean by is "the heat over"-- you could have easily said that last summer after July also, as we never had a heat wave like that again after what we went through in July. Yes, it won't get that hot but it can still easily get hot and I expect us to have 90 degree days right into early September, like we normally do.

Yes, this is now the 4th consecutive summer with a -NAO signal prevailing, and if it persists through the cold season, it'll be the 4th consecutive winter (2008-09 actually wasn't far from neutral, but had periods of decent blocking).

As for 90s, I can definitely see a handful more days, but compared to July, August won't touch it in terms of departures. A lot more cool, even below normal departure days coming up in the next 2 weeks which we've seen virtually none since June.

[Sundog]

what i really want to know is where all the people who were calling for a cooler than normal summer went

To the same place as all those winter forecasters that predicted a below normal snow season this past winter.

[psv88]

Not promoting my blog here, as this is my only weather post, but check out my weather article, im sure you all will love it...

http://commonsensicalamerican.blogspot.com/

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, this is now the 4th consecutive summer with a -NAO signal prevailing, and if it persists through the cold season, it'll be the 4th consecutive winter (2008-09 actually wasn't far from neutral, but had periods of decent blocking).

As for 90s, I can definitely see a handful more days, but compared to July, August won't touch it in terms of departures. A lot more cool, even below normal departure days coming up in the next 2 weeks which we've seen virtually none since June.

It sounds like the NAO has absolutely no connection for us as far as hot or not as hot summers-- 2008 and 2009 were cooler, 2010 and 2011 have been hot.

[Guest Pamela]

I HIGHLY doubt this is our last 90 degree day. I hate when people make wild weather predictions.

No one detests the heat more than me...but I have to agree with the quoted statement...saying this is "the last 90 degree day" probably isn't a safe statement until mid-September / about 5 weeks from now.

[A-L-E-X]

No one detests the heat more than me...but I have to agree with the quoted statement...saying this is "the last 90 degree day" probably isn't a safe statement until mid-September / about 5 weeks from now.

I agree-- my cut off point is Sept 21-- when summer really ends lol.

[Dark Energy]

Yes, this is now the 4th consecutive summer with a -NAO signal prevailing, and if it persists through the cold season, it'll be the 4th consecutive winter (2008-09 actually wasn't far from neutral, but had periods of decent blocking).

As for 90s, I can definitely see a handful more days, but compared to July, August won't touch it in terms of departures. A lot more cool, even below normal departure days coming up in the next 2 weeks which we've seen virtually none since June.

thank Christ b/c my electric bill last month was $207. Eff That!

[Guest Pamela]

I agree-- my cut off point is Sept 21-- when summer really ends lol.

Last year Newark's final 90 degree day was on September 25th...and anomalously cool September's come along once in a blue moon around here...

[SACRUS]

After the first few days of AUG 1994 and 2006,the heat ended and didnt come back.There were no more 90 degree days.I would not be suprised if we didnt hit 90 again.I hope that is the case.A Cold DEC/JAN is looking very promising,especially JAN.The fact that we had our 100+ degree readings in July makes that very promising.JULY 1977,1980,1991,1993,1995,1999 and 2010 ALL hit 100 degrees and ALL of the Januarys that followed were cold except for 2 (JAN 1992 and JAN 2000 had the cold come right at mid month after warm first halves)

1994

EWR:

8/13: 95

8/14: 95

8/21: 90

8/26: 90

8/27: 92

8/28: 91

9/13: 92

9/17: 91

NYC:

8/13: 94

8/14: 91

8/27: 90

8/29: 91

9/17: 90

2006:

EWR:

8/14: 91

8/20: 94

8/23: 90

NYC:

none

[A-L-E-X]

After the first few days of AUG 1994 and 2006,the heat ended and didnt come back.There were no more 90 degree days.I would not be suprised if we didnt hit 90 again.I hope that is the case.A Cold DEC/JAN is looking very promising,especially JAN.The fact that we had our 100+ degree readings in July makes that very promising.JULY 1977,1980,1991,1993,1995,1999 and 2010 ALL hit 100 degrees and ALL of the Januarys that followed were cold except for 2 (JAN 1992 and JAN 2000 had the cold come right at mid month after warm first halves)

I think we will have some 90 degree days right into early September-- which is normal for us, but nothing consistent like what July was.

1992 and 2000 are understandable exceptions-- one was a strong el nino and the other one was a strong la nina.

[A-L-E-X]

Last year Newark's final 90 degree day was on September 25th...and anomalously cool September's come along once in a blue moon around here...

The trend seems to be for warm Septembers (+), cool Octobers (-) and mild Novembers (+) lol

[A-L-E-X]

thank Christ b/c my electric bill last month was $207. Eff That!

You need to power your home with (you guessed it) DARK ENERGY!

[mattinpa]

I think this may actually be a cool September in the MA after an August that's better than July. Can't rule out a 90 degree day in Sept., but I also don't think one is nearly certain.

[A-L-E-X]

My goal last year was to reach 30 90 degree days, 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days for the first time ever-- those worked out well This year, it's to get to 20 90 degree days lol..... I need four more.

[SACRUS]

My goal last year was to reach 30 90 degree days, 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days for the first time ever-- those worked out well This year, it's to get to 20 90 degree days lol..... I need four more.

Alex, i think you'll have chances for 4 more 90+ days. Today is likely out as clouds are fast approaching and should be here before noon. Tomorrow, should we stay sunny is the next shot. Guidance still hinting at some riding and warmth by the middle/end of next week (8/17)

[ag3]

Alex, i think you'll have chances for 4 more 90+ days. Today is likely out as clouds are fast approaching and should be here before noon. Tomorrow, should we stay sunny is the next shot. Guidance still hinting at some riding and warmth by the middle/end of next week (8/17)

Euro through day 10 has no major heat. Even at days 9-10, the ridge it's trying to build is not too impressive.

GFS is same.

[SACRUS]

Euro through day 10 has no major heat. Even at days 9-10, the ridge it's trying to build is not too impressive.

GFS is same.

Signal is there and suspect the period from on/around the 18th starts to warm above normal with the potential for some heat between there and the end of the month.

[Isotherm]

The trend seems to be for warm Septembers (+), cool Octobers (-) and mild Novembers (+) lol

Further illustrating yours and William's point, below are the departure maps for those respective months.

September. Since 2000, 2000, 2001, 2006, and 2009 were the below normal temp years, so 6/10 warm.

October seems to be a toss-up. Cool signal NW of NYC and warm to the SE.

And November has the strongest signal for warmth nationwide.

10 years obviously isn't enough to forecast off of, but it's interesting nonetheless to see the trends.

So if you felt that autumns have been rather warm the past decade, which I have (leaves seem to be falling off later on average than they used to) then you felt correctly.

[SACRUS]

Further illustrating yours and William's point, below are the departure maps for those respective months.

September. Since 2000, 2000, 2001, 2006, and 2009 were the below normal temp years, so 6/10 warm.

October seems to be a toss-up. Cool signal NW of NYC and warm to the SE.

And November has the strongest signal for warmth nationwide.

10 years obviously isn't enough to forecast off of, but it's interesting nonetheless to see the trends.

So if you felt that autumns have been rather warm the past decade, which I have (leaves seem to be falling off later on average than they used to) then you felt correctly.

Good stuff! Also of interest is the seemingly routine warmup we have around the end of October/Halloween the last few years or so.

EWR 10/31:

2010 : 60 (in the low 70s day or 2 before)

2009: 74

2008: 65

2007: 66

2006: 71

2005: 70

2004: 74

2003: 70

[ag3]

Through August 8th:

LGA: +1.8

JFK: +2.8

NYC: +3.6

EWR: +4.1