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August NYC Metro WX Disco


Dark Energy

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I don't know if today will be the last 90 degree day, but the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks suggests a normal to somewhat below normal temp regime over the Northeast. Upper ridge position will be pulling back into the Rockies, and many more cold front will be allowed to swing through the Lakes and Northeast. In fact, there are a few autumnal shots of air on the 12z data. Later this week we have cooling, then another cold front early next week, and mroe troughiness through the 20th. I can see Tony's point re warming the last week to 10 days, but overall, the big heat of summer 2011 has ended.

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I don't know if today will be the last 90 degree day, but the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks suggests a normal to somewhat below normal temp regime over the Northeast. Upper ridge position will be pulling back into the Rockies, and many more cold front will be allowed to swing through the Lakes and Northeast. In fact, there are a few autumnal shots of air on the 12z data. Later this week we have cooling, then another cold front early next week, and mroe troughiness through the 20th. I can see Tony's point re warming the last week to 10 days, but overall, the big heat of summer 2011 has ended.

Gulf of Alaska troughiness teleconnects to Lakes/NE US trough given the shorter wavelengths at this time of year (a winter time GOA trough usually spells disaster).

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I don't know if today will be the last 90 degree day, but the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks suggests a normal to somewhat below normal temp regime over the Northeast. Upper ridge position will be pulling back into the Rockies, and many more cold front will be allowed to swing through the Lakes and Northeast. In fact, there are a few autumnal shots of air on the 12z data. Later this week we have cooling, then another cold front early next week, and mroe troughiness through the 20th. I can see Tony's point re warming the last week to 10 days, but overall, the big heat of summer 2011 has ended.

It probably won't be enough to send August below average, but I think final departures will be pretty close to normal (-1 to +1). The strong positives are mostly behind us, at least through day 15. I'm expecting September to bring plenty of warmth/humidity w/ the eastern ridge rebuilding. Generally this occurs in warm AMO seasons and analogs point to a mild Sept, i.e. 2008, which is one of my favorite years still (then a cold October followed, but that's getting too far ahead).

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Looking at the Euro and GFS today, they are both showing average to below average for the entire NE, for the next 2 weeks.

90 degrees will still be reached though. You dont need a very hot airmass to reach 90 degrees, this time of year.

I would say its safe to say 98+, will not be reached in NYC, LGA and JFK, for the next 3 weeks.

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You dont need a very hot airmass to reach 90 degrees, this time of year.

Don't know about that, averages are declining and a couple weeks from now we do need pretty hot airmasses to exceed 90. The frequency of 90 degree days tend to fall off rapidly post August 20th-25th, and the pattern through that time period looks normal to slightly below. Maybe Newark will still hit 90F while the rest of us our 80-85; I would never make a non-heat prediction for EWR. :lol:

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After the first few days of AUG 1994 and 2006,the heat ended and didnt come back.There were no more 90 degree days.I would not be suprised if we didnt hit 90 again.I hope that is the case.A Cold DEC/JAN is looking very promising,especially JAN.The fact that we had our 100+ degree readings in July makes that very promising.JULY 1977,1980,1991,1993,1995,1999 and 2010 ALL hit 100 degrees and ALL of the Januarys that followed were cold except for 2 (JAN 1992 and JAN 2000 had the cold come right at mid month after warm first halves)

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