WhiteoutWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 TS Emily (from NHC)... THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA. This was written before the 12z GFS which now shows modest strengthening in the Bahamas and off Florida. I dont think the models have a clue right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 TS Emily (from NHC)... THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA. I know they're experts but she sure is looking extremely healthy for something that the models dissipate so soon. Edit just seen the new 12z runs so the NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement it will be in the eastern Bahamas by 84 hours. Its inching rightward , all but the GGEM (old) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 This was written before the 12z GFS which now shows modest strengthening in the Bahamas and off Florida. I dont think the models have a clue right now. Looks like only the GGEM has had it picked up. The ECM and GFS have been out to lunch on it and just now really recognize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Clouds moved in, temps hit a wall, no longer rising. Looks like I just learned something new about the weather today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looks like only the GGEM has had it picked up. The ECM and GFS have been out to lunch on it and just now really recognize it. It looks like a weaker system has a chance of hitting but anything stronger will prolly recurve, that is of course the current modeling there could be any number of changes, in fact I am not sure how much stock I am putting in the models right now ( esp GFS ) since they cant seem to decide to keep the store from one run to the other, the overall setup however doesnt look like a landfall for us as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 97/56 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I doubt Atlanta hits 100 this week. Their forecast high today is 96 and they are only at 91 at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Our weather station at work is at 102.7 right now. That's officially the hottest reading we've ever recorded on it in the 10 or so years that we've had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Mesowest is showing many spots at 111 deg in eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as of 2PM Central....terrible summer for the folks out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I doubt Atlanta hits 100 this week. Their forecast high today is 96 and they are only at 91 at 3pm. Higher DP's than modeled and some clouds appear to be keeping the temps down a touch. We will see if the same thing happens tomorrow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Mesowest is showing many spots at 111 deg in eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as of 2PM Central....terrible summer for the folks out there Yeah, some of the obs out there are ridiculous......I'd hate to see some of the power bills out there the last 2 months. Too bad a tropical system couldn't make it up through there and give them some moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Higher DP's than modeled and some clouds appear to be keeping the temps down a touch. We will see if the same thing happens tomorrow or not. The temp shot up from 91 to 95 in the last hour in Atlanta. Who knows, maybe Atlanta will hit 100 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The temp shot up from 91 to 95 in the last hour in Atlanta. Who knows, maybe Atlanta will hit 100 tomorrow. I'll be watching the overnight lows tonight. If Atlanta can manage to stay in the upper 70's, I think the chances of hitting 100 go way up. If they drop below about 75 I'll start having more doubts that they can squeak it out. Most of the time when KATL hits 100 it comes after a very warm overnight, It gives them a better jumping off point in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Mesowest is showing many spots at 111 deg in eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as of 2PM Central....terrible summer for the folks out there My friend in Dallas said it has been over 100 for a few weeks now. They are currently 107 and the low tonight is 85. Not good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 My friend in Dallas said it has been over 100 for a few weeks now. They are currently 107 and the low tonight is 85. Not good! I should stop complaining about the heat in Georgia. I realize that the humidity is low in Dallas, but when it's that hot it doesn't even matter. That is just unbearably hot. I don't see how people handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Our weather station at work is at 102.7 right now. That's officially the hottest reading we've ever recorded on it in the 10 or so years that we've had it. What is your dew? Mine has hit rock bottom. GFS nailed this region today with the low dewpoints. Sitting at 50 here, 46 airport, 57 Gastonia. Also, the highest temp of the Summer at 97. It feels like an oven outside, almost want the humidity back. Winds are brisk like a blowdryer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 What is your dew? Mine has hit rock bottom. GFS nailed this region today with the low dewpoints. Sitting at 50 here, 46 airport, 57 Gastonia. Also, the highest temp of the Summer at 97. It feels like an oven outside, almost want the humidity back. Winds are brisk like a blowdryer. Wow, I had no idea Dp's were that low so close by....Still sitting at 70 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Wow, I had no idea Dp's were that low so close by....Still sitting at 70 here yeah, huge differences over a short period. It happened frequently in the Summer of 2007 and 2008 here, where my county's dewpoint went into the 40's every afternoon, even when nearby places like GSP were in the 60's and almost 70 at CLT a few times (was extremely wet there, extremely dry ground here). The power of nw winds coming over the mtns. with already dry air in place, really heats things up like a furnace too. Always around 3 to 4 in the afternoon when the dewpoints bottom out, now its 50. GFS forecast it again tomorrow. I'm guessing it will get into the upper 40's once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It was 96 this afternoon while I was splitting wood from the tree I took down Sun. It was more comfortable (relative ) today at 2 than it was Sun. at 6, in a shower and with temps in the 80's, when I cut the tree down, and cut the trunk up. Humidity in the 40's is just amazingly helpful when the temps are this rough. I am used to working outside all year round, but the older I get the harder it is to deal. There were roofers working across the street on Monday. That would have killed me I almost got heat stroke just listening to the nail guns. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Ugh, next week looks brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Ugh, next week looks brutal. And the rest of this week. 18Z GFS forecast highs for KMGE Wednesday - 100 Thursday - 101 Friday - 101 Saturday - 101 Even if those don't verify totally what you can take from that run is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 And the rest of this week. 18Z GFS forecast highs for KMGE Wednesday - 100 Thursday - 101 Friday - 101 Saturday - 101 Even if those don't verify totally what you can take from that run is I think this summer and last summer will go down as one of the hottest back to back summers ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 pretty nice evening around here..looks like we may even make a run at mid 60's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Atlanta is cooling down very slowly again tonight. I'm fairing a bit better at 84 which is two degrees ahead of last night at this time. I said watch for the overnight lows earlier today and they are indeed slowly falling. KATL is already 9 degrees warmer now than it was this time last night (note: they did have a t-storm last night). FFC has gone ahead and forecast a 100 degree high for tomorrow downtown. Looks more and more likely that KATL hit the 100 mark for the first time since August 2007. I'll be watching the hourly readings tomorrow for that 100 to verify. I'll be very happy if it does for a few reasons, mainly if it's going to be hot we may as well get that 100 degree notch in our belt this year and my prediction this past weekend that KATL would hit that 100 mark this week . Lord knows it would be very fitting with how consistently hot it has been this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Emily looking pretty good last few hours......still doubtful she actually hits NC but she might get close enough to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I hate what I am seeing in the models tonight- had some hope for rain Thursday but that is looking like the short wave coming in from the NW will be poorly timed so the storms that day may very will end up south of here. Then its dicey for anything after that- I want some rain to make up for the godawful heat we will have to endure this week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It was 96 this afternoon while I was splitting wood from the tree I took down Sun. It was more comfortable (relative ) today at 2 than it was Sun. at 6, in a shower and with temps in the 80's, when I cut the tree down, and cut the trunk up. Humidity in the 40's is just amazingly helpful when the temps are this rough. I am used to working outside all year round, but the older I get the harder it is to deal. There were roofers working across the street on Monday. That would have killed me I almost got heat stroke just listening to the nail guns. T humidity is the killer. heat doesn't bother my guys at all but humidity has been unbelievable this year. I was pruning on monday and in ten minutes i was soaked wet with sweat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 humidity is the killer. heat doesn't bother my guys at all but humidity has been unbelievable this year. I was pruning on monday and in ten minutes i was soaked wet with sweat Very true. I actually sweat more when its a humid 80 degrees than I do in a day like yesterday when it was 96 but dry. Also another good thing about low humidity is the temperature falls quite nicely once the Sun sets especially away from urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Very true. I actually sweat more when its a humid 80 degrees than I do in a day like yesterday when it was 96 but dry. Also another good thing about low humidity is the temperature falls quite nicely once the Sun sets especially away from urban areas. So true, This is our coolest morning in weeks as yesterday we were in the mid 90s with about 25% humidity. We have been in the upper 80s to low 90s with humidity around 45-55%. Big difference between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 FFC has me at 100 today. I'm at 71 now so we cooled off nicely last night. Yesterday we peaked at 97. I have a feeling we'll come up short of the 100 at my house at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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