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August Obs.


Psalm 148:8

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That's awesome... my favorite pic is the one of the waterspout moving through what looks like either a small lake or inlet. Show the water at the base churning and beign sucked up. Great pics!

Um...Someone in Carolina Beach must be very bad indeed. Looks like the big guy is literally demonstrating the finger of God.

orig.jpg

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This is 10 days out.... Euro from last night

This would be devastating to Georgia, Major Hurricane plowing into the coastline near Savannah. This is not the likely outcome so please take with a metric ton of salt.

952 mb major hurricane.....

edit : Actually this just hit me, I'm not sure you can extrapolate that 952 to the surface but none the less it's a biggie.

It is a bit concerning that most models are showing a US hit though this far out. We all know the US is way overdue for a major hurricane hit.

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AND...it's been showing a US hit the last 14 runs, well the GFS has anyway.

Exactly. Sure, its a long shot, but it's not impossible. I would love to have a major rain producer for the Southeast, unfortunately damage is something that we might not be able to avoid if these models hold true. It will be interesting to see what the models do later and to see where it takes the storm once it comes inland. Could be looking at another Hugo type system?

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Exactly. Sure, its a long shot, but it's not impossible. I would love to have a major rain producer for the Southeast, unfortunately damage is something that we might not be able to avoid if these models hold true. It will be interesting to see what the models do later and to see where it takes the storm once it comes inland. Could be looking at another Hugo type system?

It's going to depend on the depth of the trough. A deeper trough and we could be looking at a East Coaster runner, but a more shallow trough and Florida could get a direct hit.

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One thing not shown yet, and that I wouldn't be surprised to pop up, is a weak closed 5H low in the Gulf or lower Miss. Valley .

now both models have a weak trough, maybe a mid level closed low over the Ohio Valley next week as the storm is coming across the Dominican Republic. The Euro takes it due west skirting southern Cuba and emerges into the Gulf. Both models have shifted south substantially on day 8, but this may just be a perturbation of new data, maybe not though. guess we'll find out with new runs to see if its a trend. If the trough in Ohio Valley is far enough south, that would be the bigger deal on steering, imo, and would also be the best way to bring in a ton of rain to the largest part of the Southeast possible. In a perfect storm scenario, I'd think the trough would need to be a little further west and the storm be close to southern Fl, then into the northeast Gulf. The interaction with the decaying front, convergence, onshore flow, orographic lift and widespread synoptic rain on strong southeast flow would all be about as good as it gets to dump 5" to 10" of rain over a huge chunk of real estate. Depending on speed and size of the system...so far looks like a pretty large and strong system. It's going to be fun following this one, and like I said earlier we've got ingredients in place that are missing usually every cane season...lack of deep western Atlantic trough (westerlies pull north quickly next week) and a nicely placed high, with a gap or weakness between the two highs. If any of these change a lot, it will change the track a good bit. But first, we don't have a storm yet, so its all just speculation on paper now.

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Just had a good storm come through here; however, I do not know how much it rained. My weather station rain gauge is out for some reason. :( All of the other features are working, and the rain gauge is not wireless. Oh well, that is why you always have a back up plan. I have a second rain gauge outside that is not as accurate; however, it will do. Foothills is right, that storm over Alexander County was massive. It will be interesting to see what comes out from Alexander County.

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Damage Reports

08/18/2011 0530 PM

1 miles ESE of Taylorsville, Alexander County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.

Four Mobile homes blown off their foundations on Taylorsville manufacturing Road.

08/18/2011 0530 PM

Taylorsville, Alexander County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.

20 trees down. Hiddenite f.D. Report.

Had a few good clusters up here in Wilkes too. Some power outages nearby. Loads of lightning with very small hail here.

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I'm here in NW Catawba county and it began to rain in earnest about 15 minutes ago. I love it when you get the message "It's raining cats and dogs" on the Vantage Vue. So far, I'm at 0.44 inches and it looks like more is to come.

Looks like the nw piedmont has been getting hammered the last few hours. 2" to 4" of rain fairly widespread.

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Finally got power back, over 2900 people in this county alone were without power.

That was an impressive storm, probably the most power storm (Wind wise) i've seen in a long time.

Numerous trees down, branches broken, there's trash everywhere. Thankfully it seems little damage to homes except maybe some minor roof damage where I live.

What was amazing about this storm was the wind never seem to die down. I really can't estimate the gusts but has to have been easily over 60mph if not more.

Edit: Just saw that 4 mobile homes were moved off their foundation further north, Ouch.. I guess it wasn't as strong here. (I'm about 5 miles south of downtown taylorsville)

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