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August Obs.


Psalm 148:8

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Had several storms roll through since Friday afternoon. Up to an inch IMBY, but within a few miles all around me some have had 2.5+. I've had 3.5 IMBY over the past couple of weeks and it looks like I could possibly be adding to these totals throughout the remainder of the day. I can really tell the summer pattern we've been in is starting to loose it's punch and finally surrender ever so slowly. The evenings are actually starting to feel comfortable on a consistent basis out at the practice field. I'm sure their are some warm afternoons still ahead, but IMO the worst is behind us now and it's downhill from here on out.

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Here are the photos I took driving and walking around downtown Belmont today. Many of these photos were taken in the historic district with very large older houses. I actually can't believe more houses did not get hit. I could have taken a couple more dozen photos but I think you will get the point. I have been very lucky this year was with these downburst wind events (knock on wood) as this was once again only a little over half a mile from the house.

Reminds me of the damage from Hurricane Isabel back home in some of the historic parts of Richmond. I remember going around town and seeing tons of old trees completely uprooted like that. Sad to see in a way.

Hoping it finally rains here today. It's been a while since anything significant. I've only had one storm this Summer that dropped more than 1". And that was July 7th. Lots of nickle and dime events. Large rain masses just don't affect my area.

Events this month:

.69"

.25"

.02"

.25"

Huge rain differences in the last 90 day between the western piedmont/upstate and what happens in the heart of the piedmont near CLT and just east. You go from 4 to 6" of rain to 20"+. Same old , same old...different summer, but the same overall flow and same result. Atleast it did rain some though this Summer. Feel sort of guilty for complaining this year since so many other places are way too dry as well, much worse than me, but my area never gets a Summer surplus. I can't even remember when I've had a normal amount of rain in June through August, but we may get close this time.

You'll make up for it in the winter when everyone in charlotte and points east are switiching between rain/snow mix and you're rolling in the good stuff scooter.gifSnowman.gif

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You'll make up for it in the winter when everyone in charlotte and points east are switiching between rain/snow mix and you're rolling in the good stuff scooter.gifSnowman.gif

I'm probably one of the few that would just want to have regular rain back in our Summers. Winter storms are fun but they represent just so little of my annual precip, I'd give up any more snow just to experience heavy rains again.

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Hoping it finally rains here today. It's been a while since anything significant. I've only had one storm this Summer that dropped more than 1". And that was July 7th. Lots of nickle and dime events. Large rain masses just don't affect my area.

Events this month:

.69"

.25"

.02"

.25"

Huge rain differences in the last 90 day between the western piedmont/upstate and what happens in the heart of the piedmont near CLT and just east. You go from 4 to 6" of rain to 20"+. Same old , same old...different summer, but the same overall flow and same result. Atleast it did rain some though this Summer. Feel sort of guilty for complaining this year since so many other places are way too dry as well, much worse than me, but my area never gets a Summer surplus. I can't even remember when I've had a normal amount of rain in June through August, but we may get close this time.

I can't remember either :( It's been better in the rainfall dept this past year, just not enough to matter much. I'm tired of this drought. :angry:

http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Drought/drought_current_info.php

Discussion:

Members of the S.C. Drought Response Committee, meeting via tele-conference on July 14, upgraded Lancaster, Kershaw, Lexington and Richland counties to moderate drought status. Horry and Marion counties were upgraded to severe drought status. The committee's decision to maintain or upgrade was driven by continuing concern over agricultural impacts, low stream flows and increased forest fire activity. Sporadic and localized rainfall has not mitigated the ongoing drought status throughout the state.

Aiken, Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Beaufort, Berkeley, Calhoun, Charleston, Chesterfield, Clarendon, Colleton, Darlington, Dillon, Dorchester, Edgefield, Florence, Georgetown, Hampton, Jasper, Lee, Marlboro, Orangeburg, Sumter, and Williamsburg counties maintained moderate drought status. The remaining counties maintain incipient status. The moderate drought declaration is followed by increasing levels of severity to severe and extreme status.

David Tompkins with the S.C. Department of Agriculture reported, "The heat really stretches things. We're looking at total corn crop failures in some counties as well as stress on other crops. The lack of rainfall is taking a toll on pastures and grazing lands. Livestock owners that are worried about where feed supplies will come from if we stay hot and dry."

Darryl Jones with the S.C. Forestry Commission reported, "June was particularly active for fire occurrence with the state reaching 188% of the 10 year average and it looks like July is shaping up to do the same. The continued high heat this summer has also raised safety concerns for our fire fighters with extreme operating conditions and higher occurrence of fatigue and heat related injuries."

Pickens County resident and committee member Dennis Chastain reported, "Throughout the state the extraordinary heat is driving the levels of drought. We're just not getting the kind of recharge in some basins with the episodic rainfall that we've been getting. We've had some rainfall, but much of it has runoff and there has been a tremendous amount of evaporation. We're subject to a rapid change in the drought status over a short period of time and things could deteriorate quickly."

<p class="textIndent">Barnwell County Administrator Pickens Williams, Jr. noted, "Some counties are on the edge of upgrading drought status and we'll need to closely monitor indicators for concern that drought conditions may worsen."

Scott Willett, Anderson County Regional Joint Water System, reported that, "During this time of year we're being sustained by scattered thunderstorms, which leaves areas within some counties worse off than others."

Mike Hancock with the Lugoff-Elgin Water Authority also stressed, "The committee members want the public to understand the dangerous fire potential posed by the lack of rainfall. Another result of the drought is the effect it's having on our state's agriculture. The foods, jobs and livelihoods supported by our agriculture industry are vulnerable to the ongoing drought status."

The purpose of the declaration is to increase awareness that drought conditions are intensifying. Water systems are asked to review their Drought Response Plans and Ordinances and implement as needed. The drought committee encourages the public to be cautious with any outdoor burning activity. The best way to fight wildfires is to prevent them!

The committee will reconvene in approximately three weeks or sooner if needed to reevaluate the drought conditions.

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I am very worried about another big-time screw job here- NWS has 50% POP tonight and 70% tomorrow- I just do not see it. The HRRR and MOS are a lot less aggressive than that- everything this afternoon is east, then the front/short wave comes through with horrible timing tomorrow AM, then everything is south and east again. I really hope the NWS is correct and I am dead wrong, but their track record has been less than stellar as we all know. Then its back to dry for several more days at least. This summer has generally sucked,

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I am very worried about another big-time screw job here- NWS has 50% POP tonight and 70% tomorrow- I just do not see it. The HRRR and MOS are a lot less aggressive than that- everything this afternoon is east, then the front/short wave comes through with horrible timing tomorrow AM, then everything is south and east again. I really hope the NWS is correct and I am dead wrong, but their track record has been less than stellar as we all know. Then its back to dry for several more days at least. This summer has generally sucked,

Your probably right but that front in early August that came through at night overperformed, at least for my area. I haven't had any rain since so I would love some tonight.

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Goodness this storm definitely belongs in my top 5 worse storms of this year. The lightning associated with this was EXTREMELY dangerous. In fact, while I was recording, a large blue bolt struck so close I almost had an instant heart attack and the very loud snap about took out my hearing for a brief moment. I'd say it hit less than 100 feet away but a little more than 45 feet. Two others also struck close but nothing like the first.

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lightning.gifsmile.gif It will certainly scare you! Years ago one of my houses was hit by lightning while we were inside.Blew all the electronic stuff up. We discovered it hit a tree next to the house, then jumped to the house and down the side. You could see the black trail and bark that had been blown from the tree.
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We had an incredible storm here with winds of around 50mph and lots of lightning. What made the storm memorable though was the incredible rain. We got 1.25 in under 10 mins. It was so heavy that our visibilty was almost zero for a few mins. I will remember this storm for some time.

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We had an incredible storm here with winds of around 50mph and lots of lightning. What made the storm memorable though was the incredible rain. We got 1.25 in under 10 mins. It was so heavy that our visibilty was almost zero for a few mins. I will remember this storm for some time.

Just 12 miles to the south we just got some rain, but the first storm in Union about 4:30 pm or so dumped over 1 " of water, I was in Food Lion at the time and you could hear the rain pounding on the roof, sounded like wind first but I went to where I could see and it was pouring..

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it looks like Gaston, Lincoln and Meck are about to get hit hard again. Getting bypassed here. Again.

Pouring rain here now :thumbsup:

I have to eat my words. The storm developed almost due south, and got us pretty nicely. Not much wind, but decent rain for 25 minutes. Got .63" which is one of the bigger rain events this Summer.

We had an incredible storm here with winds of around 50mph and lots of lightning. What made the storm memorable though was the incredible rain. We got 1.25 in under 10 mins. It was so heavy that our visibilty was almost zero for a few mins. I will remember this storm for some time.

Just 12 miles to the south we just got some rain, but the first storm in Union about 4:30 pm or so dumped over 1 " of water, I was in Food Lion at the time and you could hear the rain pounding on the roof, sounded like wind first but I went to where I could see and it was pouring..

Glad you guys cashed in.

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Savannah got more thunderstorms last evening and this evening. Sav. has gotten tstorms about five days out of the last seven. This has easily been the wettest period of the summer to date. The lawns say thank you very much!

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Monday might be an interesting day for the areas that get under the cold upper low. Looks like part of Virginia, northern NC, maybe northeast TN, Southeast KY could be around 12 deg. at 850 to start the day, warming only to +15 during midday. If there's enough convective development, some areas would get hailed on and experience strong thunderstorms,like Springtime. Its unusual to see it that cold or have this deep a trough this far south, in August. Something to watch.

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Obviously drastically different opinions. You would think they would collaborate so that the forecasts wouldn't be so much different in the bordering counties. Sometimes living near another CWA can be very confusing when the forecasts are so different.

Now you know what I have to deal with every single day! gun_bandana.gif

In all seriousness though, I don't even look at the NWS stuff until I'm about to put my numbers together. I do this to see if they picked up on something I may have missed, which happens occasionally.

It looks to me that Birmingham has it a little too dry for tomorrow for their eastern CWA, while Peachtree City has it a touch too wet...Personally, I would have put a 30-40% chance of rain for those areas. The better chances for rain are certainly going to be across the eastern parts of GA, where the front will be able to interact with warmer, more unstable air in the afternoon. Your chances for rain are going to be earlier in the day, say from morning to the early afternoon, as the front moves through earlier in the day.

Again, like Weatherkid said, two different WFO = two different opinions, and now I'm throwing my opinion into the ring!

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I find it interesting that I have a 70% chance of rain tomorrow while 15 miles to my west in AL they have a 20% chance. Is there a logical explanation to this ?

Here's what you should do. Go to the line separating the 2 CWAs. Straddle the line and wait. Tomorrow evening, if one foot is wet and the other one dry, send a congratulatory E-mail to both offices.

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