patrick7032 Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 If you get any flakes, post some pictures for those of us further south. Aside from MTBLANC will also do the same with regard to your request....we start to get trace snowfall amounts in about 2 weeks. Usually at night though or mixed during the day throughout the winter as even in January our avg. temp. is 38 for a daily max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 LOL, have fun with those upper air launches. I hate launching above 30, forget 50+. Thanks Baro....but you get proficient in high wind launches very quickly out here....I don't even get excited now unless above 65mph....can't wait to launch in 80+ mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 A couple pics from Denali yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 A couple pics from Denali yesterday. Snow levels look insanely low on Denali (Mckinley). What is the height of the bottom mountain? 4-5000 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Thanks Baro....but you get proficient in high wind launches very quickly out here....I don't even get excited now unless above 65mph....can't wait to launch in 80+ mph. Those high wind launches are always your best stories, and the ones you'll remember. Though I can honestly say I never had the pleasure of even approaching 65 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Not for sure till I can go through my pics with a topo map but I think that is a good estimate Snow levels look insanely low on Denali (Mckinley). What is the height of the bottom mountain? 4-5000 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Those high wind launches are always your best stories, and the ones you'll remember. Though I can honestly say I never had the pleasure of even approaching 65 mph. Oh I already have all sorts of stories. Best launch yet was a balloon that got caught in the downstream eddy of the UA building and essentially knocked straight into the ground 2-3 times (including one full revolution). The sonde was slammed into the ground, but the flight was still successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Oh I already have all sorts of stories. Best launch yet was a balloon that got caught in the downstream eddy of the UA building and essentially knocked straight into the ground 2-3 times (including one full revolution). The sonde was slammed into the ground, but the flight was still successful. The best one I seen was when Teammobeu trained me...we were launching around 55 mph. The sonde smacked the ground twice....then one of our little tracking buildings....and in all three occasions it was like watching someone come flying off the top ropes on WWE....thing had no tone...thought it was dead....and when we got back to the office it was transmitting. I smacked one off the ground 2 weeks ago...winds were only 7kt so I used the appropriate length of string...then right as I released we gusted over 20....figures....successful flight up to about 8mb....but for me....BRING ON THOSE 920mb lows with 100mph.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBLANC Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Aside from MTBLANC will also do the same with regard to your request....we start to get trace snowfall amounts in about 2 weeks. Usually at night though or mixed during the day throughout the winter as even in January our avg. temp. is 38 for a daily max. I will post for sure. It will not be right now because it is too mild, but by the end of the week we could get the first ones. For now, 9.3C still windy but dry ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 We got our first real termination dust on the front range the other night. The closest peaks to Anchorage didn't get much, they are only around 4000-4500 ft, but directly behind there are some 5000-5500 peaks which did get hit. Freezing level on today's 12Z sounding was 5200ft. Winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 The best one I seen was when Teammobeu trained me...we were launching around 55 mph. The sonde smacked the ground twice....then one of our little tracking buildings....and in all three occasions it was like watching someone come flying off the top ropes on WWE....thing had no tone...thought it was dead....and when we got back to the office it was transmitting. I smacked one off the ground 2 weeks ago...winds were only 7kt so I used the appropriate length of string...then right as I released we gusted over 20....figures....successful flight up to about 8mb....but for me....BRING ON THOSE 920mb lows with 100mph.... I think my best involved a strong clipper. We got about a quarter inch of solid glaze ice and winds were sustained 35 gusting to 45/50 mph behind the system for the evening launch. Now our UA building has doors that face north and south, so a westerly wind is basically pick your poison for which door to attempt to run out. I set the sonde up outside in an easy position for my free hand to grab it, because I know the balloon is going to catch the wind right away. This is something I had done many times before. So I come out the door and now the balloon grabs the wind and I'm being dragged down the ice with absolutely no traction to stop. I slide right past the sonde and end up crawling on my hands and knees to get back to it. After all that effort the balloon still got caught in an eddy and the sonde ended up bouncing. I mean that balloon is never going to lift you off the ground, but without traction is will take you for a ride. I can only imagine how it reacts once you're over hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Very impressive bomb about to go off in the GOA near the BC coast. Incredible jet streak, but the very impressive part is both the rapid intensification and extreme low level baro zone. Even more impressive is the rather unimpressive PV. This is being driven nearly solely by a highly divergent jet maxima aloft. Straight unidirectional 90 knot low level winds and progged nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates. Going to be some possible 100 MPH wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBLANC Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Good morning everybody, 6.1C this morning, wind blowing from south east, it is mostly cloudy. Temperatures ranging from +1 to +8 in the territory, it is still mild for the season. The change will occur tomorrow with rain and highs getting colder. No more than 10C for upcoming days. Here is an update for this winter, like it : I have also added a link to statistics for the Environment Canada official weather station for Whitehorse: Meteowhitehorse, click on Arctic Climate Data on the left menu and then Whitehorse Data. That's it for now, Ciao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 It is well known that models struggle with rapid cyclogenesis events. The model guidance performance with the developing system has been erratic with the depth/placement/timing of the system approaching the AK Panhandle. Even this morning as the low is taking shape, and the models seem to have converged on a solution. Looking at the satellite can give us hints on how the models are actually doing. Looking at the IR at 15Z today with the nam12 mlsp overlaid it appears to me as if the surface low is too far south and should be 3 degrees or so further north and maybe a little east. With a developing/mature cyclone the surface low is located to the east of the 'cusp' (the dry intrusion) in the satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 I think my best involved a strong clipper. We got about a quarter inch of solid glaze ice and winds were sustained 35 gusting to 45/50 mph behind the system for the evening launch. Now our UA building has doors that face north and south, so a westerly wind is basically pick your poison for which door to attempt to run out. I set the sonde up outside in an easy position for my free hand to grab it, because I know the balloon is going to catch the wind right away. This is something I had done many times before. So I come out the door and now the balloon grabs the wind and I'm being dragged down the ice with absolutely no traction to stop. I slide right past the sonde and end up crawling on my hands and knees to get back to it. After all that effort the balloon still got caught in an eddy and the sonde ended up bouncing. I mean that balloon is never going to lift you off the ground, but without traction is will take you for a ride. I can only imagine how it reacts once you're over hurricane force. ROFL....have heard of similar stories (- the ice) here....good think I'm built like a linebacker....to drag me she'll have to be blowing 120+....lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 It is well known that models struggle with rapid cyclogenesis events. The model guidance performance with the developing system has been erratic with the depth/placement/timing of the system approaching the AK Panhandle. Even this morning as the low is taking shape, and the models seem to have converged on a solution. Looking at the satellite can give us hints on how the models are actually doing. Looking at the IR at 15Z today with the nam12 mlsp overlaid it appears to me as if the surface low is too far south and should be 3 degrees or so further north and maybe a little east. With a developing/mature cyclone the surface low is located to the east of the 'cusp' (the dry intrusion) in the satellite imagery. I agree....spot on....if you loop the IR sat you can clearly see the remnant circulation about 50NM SE of Cape Newenham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 We got our first real termination dust on the front range the other night. The closest peaks to Anchorage didn't get much, they are only around 4000-4500 ft, but directly behind there are some 5000-5500 peaks which did get hit. Freezing level on today's 12Z sounding was 5200ft. Winter is coming. To "echo" your point...we've been running 2800 feet MSL on our FRZ heights last 4 launches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I think were talking about 2 different systems. I was reference in the developing low in the Northeast Pacific. I agree....spot on....if you loop the IR sat you can clearly see the remnant circulation about 50NM SE of Cape Newenham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 I think were talking about 2 different systems. I was reference in the developing low in the Northeast Pacific. Ahhh....okay then yes we are....but models off by the same amount you mentioned with the eastern Bristol Bay low....how ironic...same error deviation two diff systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/smallc.html?area=3&element=0&time=201109220230 Check out the remnants of Typhoon Roke get pwned by the westerlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Pattern looks like it will "re-load" somewhat and even amplify next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 The persistent troughing over the Aleutian chain is showing it's effects....snow levels have dropped over the last couple days from ~4800 feet to ~1000 feet. Will post pics later of Frosty Mountain which looks like it may even be under the 1000' level. Also unless we hit 47 sometime today we will have tied a record low max of 46 going back to 1970 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 just wondering if any of you are being or will be affected by former TC's Sonca and Roke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Absolutely wicked looking system. The last 6 hours on this satellite loop are sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBLANC Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Hello everybody, -0.6C actually, low of -2C this night. It is now overcast, risk of (wet) snow and rain this morning. Temperatures ranging from -3 et +6 in the territory. It should be better the following days with a mainly sunny weather, but cooler temperatures: frost in the morning, no more then 10C for the highs. Ciao for now ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBLANC Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Hi everybody, -5.6C this morning, temperatures ranging from -9 to +4 in the territory. A new step to the winter this morning ! The conditions should be partly sunny today with a high of 8C. About the upcoming week, a mix of sun and clouds with frost every morning and highs of no more than +10. Have a good day ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBLANC Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Hello everybody, here are three pictures I took yesterday in the Fish Lake area (I did a hike, snow, ice and mud on the trails above 1200m): Low of -3.7C, but it may be lower, forecast high of around 8C with sunny conditions. At 5:00 am, temperatures ranging from -9C in Burwash (perhaps -10 before sunrise) to +4C. Have a great day ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Fog rolling into northeast Anchorage. 12Z sounding, though there was no fog here at the time. Freezing level down to 3500. Weak convection has been firing off the mountains the past couple afternoons with snow at the peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 http://www.twitvid.com/8PBIZ Fog rolling into the airport here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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