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Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion


patrick7032
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Well after having thunderstorms in the Aleutian chain last week (most stations had it including me issuing a special observation for a THUNDERSTORM....IN COLD BAY....we actually had 2 that morning....just a few flashes of lightning around 7am and again around 9:30) things have gotten back to normal....what is normal...well another strong Bering Sea low is forecast.

post-767-0-77695400-1323170104.jpg

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Hi everybody,

+10.3C yesterday morning, -24.3C now.

The difference is even stronger in Haines Junction (+14.5/-27.0) and Burwash (+14.0/-30.0).

Yesterday was a crazy day with warm temperatures, then rain (with ice on ground) and an unusual snow storm with between 15 cm and 25 cm in south Yukon, and now the cold.

We may however get warmer temperatures again with a risk to have highs above zero in Whitehorse between Thursday and Sunday.

After a wonderful month of November, December seems to be more chaotic.

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Hi everybody,

+10.3C yesterday morning, -24.3C now.

The difference is even stronger in Haines Junction (+14.5/-27.0) and Burwash (+14.0/-30.0).

Yesterday was a crazy day with warm temperatures, then rain (with ice on ground) and an unusual snow storm with between 15 cm and 25 cm in south Yukon, and now the cold.

We may however get warmer temperatures again with a risk to have highs above zero in Whitehorse between Thursday and Sunday.

After a wonderful month of November, December seems to be more chaotic.

glad the weather is keeping you on your toes...things have been boring and too warm along the east coast of the U.S....

*sigh*

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Nice IR SAT image of the current storm occurring that brought 75 mph winds to Cold Bay today, and a nearly 24 hour period of winds around 50 mph or better. Note the sparsity of obs showing precip. This is because the precip is blowing sideways which the automated sensors "have a fit" with.

post-767-0-65775900-1323254241.jpg

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It's an active week....storm one dumped 8-14 inches in Anchorage as I landed from my trip home....few mins earlier many flights had missed approaches due to extreme turbulence....one of my friends said it was like being on a roller coaster....this storm brought 70 mph winds to the the Aleutian chain....storm 2 is occurring now....note the 64 kts forecast which is verifying....the storm for tomorrow night is another good storm....note the 75 kts forecast....and then there's a storm for the weekend on the maps....love the active weather....below are a couple marine zones....would expect another HIGH WIND WATCH to be issued later today for the Aleutian chain....which has been the case with the last 2 storms.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

530 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

.ANALYSIS...

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF ADAK ISLAND IS

IMPACTING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS EARLY THIS

MORNING. TWO LOW LEVEL JETS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE

SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. PEAK WINDS OF 80 MPH

OCCURRED ON UNALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHED

EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING

GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS BEGINNING

TO DMINISH IN INTENSITY. MEANWHILE...A MORE POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET

RESIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY

APPROACHED 80 MPH ON ADAK...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE

AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. ACROSS

THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST REGION...CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIESCENT WITH

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTHERN GULF

COAST THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED

NORTH OF ADAK WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS

AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN

EDGE OF THIS LOW ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE

CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS

MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS

AFTERNOON. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN

ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO UNDULATE ACROSS THE NORTH

PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS

WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...187 195

MARINE...HURRICANE...172 175

STORM...150 155 165 170 171 176 179 185

GALE...120 130 132 140 160 180

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 185

FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN DEC 11

Keep in mind....out here in the chain Warning criteria (wind) is 74 mph.

PKZ199-140300-

400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA

PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 948 MB LOW 100 NM NE OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN TO 951 MB 180 NM N OF ADAK

TUE AFTERNOON THEN THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO 959 MB 310 NM NW

OF ADAK WED MORNING. A DEVELOPING 981 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH

PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN TO 941 MB 160 NM SE OF DUTCH HARBOR WED

AFTERNOON.

$$

<a name="PKZ172">PKZ172-140300-

EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK

400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SEAS 26 FT BERING SIDE...41 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS 26 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF ATKA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WED...W WIND 35 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW

50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY

WEST OF ATKA IN THE MORNING.

.WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ175-140300-

WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA

400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.

.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

post-767-0-08727000-1323798227.jpg

post-767-0-59884500-1323798921.jpg

post-767-0-73045100-1323799448.jpg

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what is cold bay like? is it lonely out there?

It's very beautiful....there are a few pictures posted in the earlier pages of this discussion....think within the first 10 pages....getting fish and crab fresh from the bay rocks....being a small town of only 60 people everyone knows everyone....we order our food from Costco in Seattle which is shipped up here on boat every 2 weeks....the people are great....seeing bears in their natural habitat is cool....you can often get within 60 feet when in your car....although I miss the severe convection launching the radiosondes in 85 mph winds is fun.

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Hello everybody,

-8.5/-3.2 today.

I have not been posted a lot these past days, because the weather is still boring here (where is the winter?) and I have a bad bronchitis.

If we keep having this weather, we may finish December with a 5C excess....

It is interesting to have the comparison with 2009 and 2010: http://meteowhitehorse.ca/wxtempsummary.php?r=wxtempsummary.php

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Just noticed that the Aleutian storm bombed into the low 940s. I bet you had a fun balloon launch Pat (if you were working).

Yeah it was a fun launch....was only at 51KT at launch but still was interesting as the first sonde went north 10 ft and ascended 8 ft....then went south 20 ft....back north 5 ft....west 10 ft...then south 20 ft....all this will going up and down between 6 and 20 feet changing shapes (balloon) at least 6 times but then it ripped into 5 pieces....so the second launch did go straight west after the sonde hit the ground 3 times (surprised it still worked although it did go silent for a few seconds)....cleared the fence along the runway by 6 inches....cleared the runway by 10 ft....and Baldy Mountain which is 2.5 miles west...it passed 1/4 mile north of there at half the height of the mountain....but yeah....IT WAS A BLAST.... :)

Sorry for the late reply....we had 2 or 3 good storms that week and days after was bust doing warning verification/LSR stuff then was off until mids this week. Here is the LSR from that storm. Not sure how the format will post here but will try it.

NWAK58 PACD 151818

LSRCDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLD BAY AK

918 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST UNALASKA 53.87N 166.53W

12/14/2011 M93 MPH UNORGANIZED AK OTHER FEDERAL

RUNWAY SENSOR OBSERVATION

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST UNALASKA 53.87N 166.53W

12/14/2011 M91 MPH UNORGANIZED AK AWOS

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST UNALASKA 53.87N 166.53W

12/14/2011 M97 MPH UNORGANIZED AK OTHER FEDERAL

RUNWAY SENSOR OBSERVATION

0604 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W FALSE PASS 54.88N 163.51W

12/14/2011 M73 MPH ALEUTIANS EAST AK ASOS

0657 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COLD BAY 55.18N 162.72W

12/14/2011 M76 MPH ALEUTIANS EAST AK OTHER FEDERAL

RUNWAY SENSOR OBSERVATION

0428 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KING COVE 55.06N 162.31W

12/15/2011 M77 MPH ALEUTIANS EAST AK PUBLIC

$$

DOLL DEC 11

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I hope Mt Blanc is ok...he hasn't posted in a while!

Yes I am.

I was very sick last week, but now I feel much better.

Just the weather which is boring with temperatures 7C above the normals for the period Dec 1-21 !

Normals for December:

-20.4

-9.5

-14.9

Values Dec 1-21:

-14.1 (+6.3)

-1.6 (+7.9)

-7.8 (+7.1)

It should become a bit colder next week in South Yukon, but we will unfortunately again stay aside the cold which will visit you and the North of Yukon.

Since I am living here, it is the longest period of warm temperatures I ever got (almost one month with no real cold).

Merry Christmas to you !

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Yes I am.

I was very sick last week, but now I feel much better.

Just the weather which is boring with temperatures 7C above the normals for the period Dec 1-21 !

Normals for December:

-20.4

-9.5

-14.9

Values Dec 1-21:

-14.1 (+6.3)

-1.6 (+7.9)

-7.8 (+7.1)

It should become a bit colder next week in South Yukon, but we will unfortunately again stay aside the cold which will visit you and the North of Yukon.

Since I am living here, it is the longest period of warm temperatures I ever got (almost one month with no real cold).

Merry Christmas to you !

HI! :wub: glad you are feeling better :)

We are way above normal here in New England as well...no snow for us...every storm tracks west of us and brings 50's and rain...brown muddy Christmas incoming...

Merry Christmas and warmest wishes for a wonderful New Year!

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Yes I am.

I was very sick last week, but now I feel much better.

Just the weather which is boring with temperatures 7C above the normals for the period Dec 1-21 !

Normals for December:

-20.4

-9.5

-14.9

Values Dec 1-21:

-14.1 (+6.3)

-1.6 (+7.9)

-7.8 (+7.1)

It should become a bit colder next week in South Yukon, but we will unfortunately again stay aside the cold which will visit you and the North of Yukon.

Since I am living here, it is the longest period of warm temperatures I ever got (almost one month with no real cold).

Merry Christmas to you !

Looks like it will cool down for you next week.

post-767-0-64205500-1324727664.jpg

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Thanks Patrick and thebigrombalski,

Merry Christmas to you and all the members of american weather !

Thanks for visiting and posting !

North Yukon will experience colder temperatures, but here in South Yukon, it will be colder but not too far from the normals.

-3.2C for now and some snow.

Hope you had a great Christmas! Keep posting the great pictures for us.

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Hello everybody,

Still too warm here and December will certainly end up with a +7C anomaly....

We have now -15.5C but it should again warm up here with a risk of above 0C temperatures, starting Sunday.

Central and Western Canada may get a warm wave next week according to GFS model... with +10C at 850 hPa !

Here are some pictures I took last Monday on the Alaska Highway (click on the picture to access the album):

111226-ML1.jpg

Have a great day !

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