gkrangers Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 So, I think we need to just face facts and realize there is just no way we are going to top last winter. The sooner we deal with it, the less disappointing this upcoming winter will be. We aren't getting mega bomb after mega bomb. Who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 move to holmdel. you'll get more snow. sent from my Sports Illustrated 4G Football phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I believe this winter is colder than last.Second year NINAs have been in the past and this winter will be no exception.We will get decent snowfall but I would strongly bet against anything like the past 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Big winter incoming, have no fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Big winter incoming, have no fear. these statements help discredit our subforum. can you provide detailed reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 This thread is a complete waste of space. these statements help discredit our subforum. can you provide detailed reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 The winters of 1984-85 and 1999-2000 were second year NINAS and produced colder temps than their first year counterpart.2008-09 was as close to a second year NINA as it could get.THe only winter I can think that underperformed was the second year NINA of 1974-75.1975-76 in its 3rd year did have a 0 degree temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I'm currently leaning towards slightly below average temperatures and normal snowfall. Will seem like a snowfall drought compared to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 31, 2011 Author Share Posted July 31, 2011 I'm currently leaning towards slightly below average temperatures and normal snowfall. Will seem like a snowfall drought compared to last year. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The winters of 1984-85 and 1999-2000 were second year NINAS and produced colder temps than their first year counterpart.2008-09 was as close to a second year NINA as it could get.THe only winter I can think that underperformed was the second year NINA of 1974-75.1975-76 in its 3rd year did have a 0 degree temp. those winters seem like ages ago...1984 had the warmest February on record...December 1984 and February 1985 had 70 degree temperatures..1974-75 had a two week winter...1975-76 had 70 degree temperatures in February...1999-00 didn't have a measurable snowfall until the second half of January...If we get the same kind of blocking we had the last two years again we will get a decent winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm not with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 So, I think we need to just face facts and realize there is just no way we are going to top last winter. The sooner we deal with it, the less disappointing this upcoming winter will be. We aren't getting mega bomb after mega bomb. Who's with me? 141 years of statistics overwhelmingly support this. I'm not with you Passion always wins out. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 im leaning towards i said the same thing in 09 and got the same thing but better in 10'. You dont know **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 move to holmdel. you'll get more snow. sent from my Sports Illustrated 4G Football phone. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm currently leaning towards slightly below average temperatures and normal snowfall. Will seem like a snowfall drought compared to last year. At this stage, I'd agree. Gun to the head call would be a -2 winter with 25-30" of snow. Pretty cold winter but nowhere near as snowy as the last two. Once October comes I'll start looking more seriously at the winter...right now this is a low confidence idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 At this stage, I'd agree. Gun to the head call would be a -2 winter with 25-30" of snow. Pretty cold winter but nowhere near as snowy as the last two. Once October comes I'll start looking more seriously at the winter...right now this is a low confidence idea. We got that in one storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 We got that in one storm last year. Yeah and I'll never forget it. Best Christmas present a wx freak could ever want. Going to bed Christmas eve with the GFS showing an all out blizzard for NJ within 48 hrs. And a couple days later, we witnessed the best storm in 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The winters of 1984-85 and 1999-2000 were second year NINAS and produced colder temps than their first year counterpart.2008-09 was as close to a second year NINA as it could get.THe only winter I can think that underperformed was the second year NINA of 1974-75.1975-76 in its 3rd year did have a 0 degree temp. 1971-2 underperformed 1970-1. The February 1972 snowstorm was a mixed bag of garbage. January 1971, its winter's coldest month was far colder than its arguable counterpart, February 1972. One could argue, I suppose, that 1971-2 was a third-year Niña (as I do) but most do not consider 1969-70 a La Niña winter. Unquestionably, when it comes to multi-year Niñas 1955-6 outperformed 1953-4 and 1954-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yeah and I'll never forget it. Best Christmas present a wx freak could ever want. Going to bed Christmas eve with the GFS showing an all out blizzard for NJ within 48 hrs. And a couple days later, we witnessed the best storm in 15 years. Yep, that GFS run on December 24 was absolutely magical. And the WV loop to follow up was just unreal. The digging, the trough, the tilt as that thing came up the coast. Never again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yep, that GFS run on December 24 was absolutely magical. And the WV loop to follow up was just unreal. The digging, the trough, the tilt as that thing came up the coast. Never again. I saved the forecast from Noaa for my area on the night of December 26th. I almost fell out of my seat when I saw this forecast. Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow before 5am, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow after 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. Very windy, with a north wind between 33 and 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 At this stage, I'd agree. Gun to the head call would be a -2 winter with 25-30" of snow. Pretty cold winter but nowhere near as snowy as the last two. Once October comes I'll start looking more seriously at the winter...right now this is a low confidence idea. Yeah I think we both have a fair stance right now. The enso looked more promising a few weeks ago. I was hoping we'd go for the 3 winter sweep with the weak nino. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yeah I think we both have a fair stance right now. The enso looked more promising a few weeks ago. I was hoping we'd go for the 3 winter sweep with the weak nino. Oh well. We've done very well with weak la ninas so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 So, I think we need to just face facts and realize there is just no way we are going to top last winter. The sooner we deal with it, the less disappointing this upcoming winter will be. We aren't getting mega bomb after mega bomb. Who's with me? I already hope this IS the case. I hope a below average snowfall + above average temp Winter isn't too much to ask for. *waits to be attacked* I don't even want to think about winter or fall, I'm enjoying summer. When September/October arrives I'll be annoyed until April lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 As I have said before, we can use a year off from the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 As we witnessed last year the strong Nina couldnt dominate the favorable Atlantic pattern we had especially the first half of the winter. With a weak Nina forecast i think it's a safe bet that there will be plenty of cold air available In Canada. If we can get favorable blocking it should be another awesome winter. Only time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 As I have said before, we can use a year off from the snow. No thank you. I think you're the only one that thinks like that ( the other might be forky ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 No thank you. I think you're the only one that thinks like that ( the other might be forky ) . Dont forget to put up your snowman sig this fall, Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Dont forget to put up your snowman sig this fall, Ant By Sept 1, I should have my snowman sig up and my winter avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm currently leaning towards slightly below average temperatures and normal snowfall. Will seem like a snowfall drought compared to last year. Yes, I agree. I doubt we can get a Kocin event three straight years in a row.... In the past two years alone..... the Northeast has seen a total of: 7 Kocin events, quite remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Logic and reason say this. Chaos does not. I think you're right though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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