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Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

0.3" overnight here. woo. Every local model pretty much has an intense band setting up through Erie, PA with a Huron connection. I could see that really stealing the show for other folks in NEOH. Thus far, the bands have been really ragged, light, elevation enhanced, and die out just as quickly as they form. Things really shouldn't get going until overnight and into tomorrow. I wish that CLE WRF would update, the BUF ones update every 6 hours.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSTANT FROM AROUND 300 DEGREES AND

MOISTURE/LIFT EXTEND THROUGH THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION THROUGH

TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ACROSS THE REMAINING WATCH

AREA IF THIS INDEED NEEDS UPGRADING TO A WARNING. WILL THE SNOW

AMOUNTS JUST NICKEL AND DIME THEIR WAY UP OVER THE TWO AND A HALF

DAY STRETCH/ ADVISORY LEVELS / OR WILL WE GET A PERIOD OF HEAVIER

SNOW IN A SHORTER TIME FRAME /WARNING LEVELS/. THERE IS A LITTLE

TIME FOR THIS DECISION AS THE BEST SNOW WOULDN`T LIKELY OCCUR

UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR ONE

MORE MODEL RUN. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER

ELEVATIONS OF THE WARNING AREAS COULD BE UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 FEET.

AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT WOULD LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MEDINA AND

POSSIBLY LORAIN COUNTIES IF SOME SECONDARY BANDS SET UP THERE. A

SHIFT OF 20 DEGREES OR SO MIGHT MAKE THE DIFFERENCE. AGAIN OUTSIDE

OF NE OH/NW PA EXPECT FLURRIES OR LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY

POINT IN TIME POSSIBLE. FLOW WILL BE MODERATE AND RAGGED ENDS OF

LAKE BANDS WILL GET DRAWN FURTHER INLAND. FINDLAY AREA MAY GET

SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MI BANDS.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

0.3" overnight here. woo. Every local model pretty much has an intense band setting up through Erie, PA with a Huron connection. I could see that really stealing the show for other folks in NEOH. Thus far, the bands have been really ragged, light, elevation enhanced, and die out just as quickly as they form. Things really shouldn't get going until overnight and into tomorrow. I wish that CLE WRF would update, the BUF ones update every 6 hours.

picked up just over an inch last night. this is just gravy on top of what is to come. I was just in geauga county at a family members house.... snow isn't that much better out there. I have no idea why the CLE WRF won't update... you would think this is the time to update it. the real show begins later this afternoon. I still think you will do ok near the lakeshore. somewhere in PA will be the jackpot (3+ feet) ... but we should do ok as well.

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BuckeyeSam

BuckeyeSam

Posted
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Looks like Central Ohio could pick up 2-3 inches on Thursday night and then another 2 - 4 Saturday Night and Sunday, while away but something to watch. would all but guarantee a White Christmas.

I'm still doubtful of a white Christmas at this point, but definitely agree that it's something to watch this week. :thumbsup:

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

Posted
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Long way out. I like the cold we have right now, looks like it could stick with us for a couple weeks anyways.

A good solution for us is for the phase to not happen and we get a weaker storm that would definitely remain all snow.

Buckeye, I can't believe ILN can't at least look at the PSU site or something to get the general idea :unsure: Liking the snow this evening! Nice coating out there so far. We seem to be in this pattern where it snows at night, melts in the day, then snows at night again. Better than nothing! :thumbsup:

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

A good solution for us is for the phase to not happen and we get a weaker storm that would definitely remain all snow.

Buckeye, I can't believe ILN can't at least look at the PSU site or something to get the general idea :unsure: Liking the snow this evening! Nice coating out there so far. We seem to be in this pattern where it snows at night, melts in the day, then snows at night again. Better than nothing! :thumbsup:

not sure what to think of next weekend. Hard to go against the globals all showing a westward solution....then again the fact that they are all latching onto the same scenario 168 hours out may actually be evidence that it's likely not the right one...lol. When was the last time a 6-7 day storm track was correctly forecasted. Think back 2 or3 years ago when all the models, (globals), latched onto the idea of a massive bomb riding the apps 120 hrs out. It then shifted to a coastal and eventually verified as a non event that slid off the southeast coast. This may be something similar where no phase occurs and it's basically ends up being a clipper-type event....or....it phases and bombs even moreso and we end up with severe tstorms as it rides up into wisconsin

As far as the here and now, here in cmh we actually have the perfect flow direction to catch some lake michigan snow.....problem is it's been very spotty, no long duration fetches.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Quite a nice light snow here on campus tonight. Definitely at least a half inch, maybe a bit more. 1.5" reported in the past 6 hours a bit north of Newark.

Yeah, looks like Columbus is actually in a pretty good position this time around for LES. Usually it's over towards Dayton, but the fetch is perfect for us this time. Will probably see this for the next few days. Could end up with a few inches just from the constant snow showers, but we'll see how much actually stays on the ground during the day. Temps will be colder the next 3 or 4 days.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

not sure what to think of next weekend. Hard to go against the globals all showing a westward solution....then again the fact that they are all latching onto the same scenario 168 hours out may actually be evidence that it's likely not the right one...lol. When was the last time a 6-7 day storm track was correctly forecasted. Think back 2 or3 years ago when all the models, (globals), latched onto the idea of a massive bomb riding the apps 120 hrs out. It then shifted to a coastal and eventually verified as a non event that slid off the southeast coast. This may be something similar where no phase occurs and it's basically ends up being a clipper-type event....or....it phases and bombs even moreso and we end up with severe tstorms as it rides up into wisconsin

As far as the here and now, here in cmh we actually have the perfect flow direction to catch some lake michigan snow.....problem is it's been very spotty, no long duration fetches.

Im not too worried yet. We could see 3 inches on Thursday night, and maybe 2" through the week with the lake effect. Maybe that will have an effect on the weekend.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

wouldnt this be nice? Bufkit for 0z gfs.. http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec

i used to know where to find the text bufkit, can someone help me out on where to find that again? Okay it used to be one the iowa state site, but where it used to say like zr and showed the rations etc it no longer shows that and I cant read the normal bufkit lol

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BuckeyeSam

BuckeyeSam

Posted
Posted

Im not too worried yet. We could see 3 inches on Thursday night, and maybe 2" through the week with the lake effect. Maybe that will have an effect on the weekend.

I've seen this Thu storm mentioned a couple times here but I'm not seeing it. Am I missing something? The weekend storm looks promising though if we can hold onto the cold air.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

I've seen this Thu storm mentioned a couple times here but I'm not seeing it. Am I missing something? The weekend storm looks promising though if we can hold onto the cold air.

Yea i'm not sure where dilly is gett'n that. The gfs does show some very minor precip with the first clipper that moves way north of us, but other than that???

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

Posted
Posted

http://www.hpc.ncep....r=wbg......look at where the low is...and only six days out..lol..:thumbsup: Shoot..no map..hit main page upper right..go to day six..Low is in kentucky!!

Bit of a mix down in Cincinnati which is where I'll be, but that's okay since the deform on the backside would likely be pretty good. 18z GFS is a bit more north which it likely the best forecast for right now IMO. Still not a bad back-end snow.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

same thing I thought, only hope we could have with that map, and albeit a slight chance still, would be if that low went due east, it couldnt come any further north than that, and even then I think it'd be too close.

i think no matter what, even if it bowls east underneath us, there would be a warm tongue at least trying to lick us. It would really have to dive south, like down to southern arkansas and then swing up to our east, which is about as likely as the bengals going to the superbowl. Since this originates from the northwest, a ridge popping out front is gonna be part of the package. Our best chance at accum is if it winds up to our east, slows down and doesn't transfer.

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