dta1984 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I'm anxious to see the Hi-Res WRFs at 1:30 this afternoon. For the most part they are pretty good, they even had predicted the band in Lorain County yesterday. There should be a Huron connection, and with a more northerly wind, this side of town can do ok. I'm considering moving to Shaker or Beachwood next year, but I just don't want to deal with having to commute downtown on Cedar, or taking 271/480/90. It's hard to give up a 10 minute commute. Hey Trent, what part of town you from? I just moved to Mayfield Heights off of 271 from Cincy about a month ago. Excited to get in on some of the LES that cleveland gets. Can you post the WRF when it comes out or give me a link? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Yes, like I said it was just an observation. I tend not to put too much faith into clipppers this far out. Remember models were showing a broad areas of accumulating snow just a few days ago. Turns out the main show was in a narrow, 50-100 mile wide band. Also the best clippers weren't really picked up until the day before. And yes, strictly from a climo standpoint I'm sure about the dry call through mid-month (10 - 12th clipper pending) as the dry NW flow combined with the strong -NAO isn't really favorable for much snow locally. I have pretty good faith in the clipper, I just dont have faith in where it will track. While it is very true that often the best clippers show up almost out of nowhere with just a few days notice, something can be said for clippers that are consistently portrayed on the models. It is very likely it will happen, it is just unsure of where the best snows will fall. True also about the relative narrow band that clippers focus their best snow with, but this next one also is portrayed by a few models to be a very slowly moving L pressure system, with next-to-guarenteed lake effect throughout the region in its wake. As of now, I put our chances at measurable snow (0.1"+) Thurs-Sat at 90%...our chances at 2"+ at 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I'm anxious to see the Hi-Res WRFs at 1:30 this afternoon. For the most part they are pretty good, they even had predicted the band in Lorain County yesterday. There should be a Huron connection, and with a more northerly wind, this side of town can do ok. I'm considering moving to Shaker or Beachwood next year, but I just don't want to deal with having to commute downtown on Cedar, or taking 271/480/90. It's hard to give up a 10 minute commute. The CLE WRF doesn't seem to update regularly. On thing I've noticed is that the WRF seems to have a southern bias with lake bands. Are you using the CLE WRF? Yeah, you can't beat a short commute. Cedar is not a fun road to travel on. Your normal snowfall will at least double if moved to the eastside... that would be enough to convince me to move. Home's are "cheap" right now... not a bad time to buy if you plan to stay. Too bad there are no homes at the top of Harvard and 271... elevation is 1290 feet there. Taxes in Shaker are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Hey Trent, what part of town you from? I just moved to Mayfield Heights off of 271 from Cincy about a month ago. Excited to get in on some of the LES that cleveland gets. Can you post the WRF when it comes out or give me a link? Thanks! dta - I'm only a few miles from you in lyndhurst. welcome to the area. You are going to like the next few days... could be the largest LES event of the season... or in years for that matter. I don't think its going to be a fire house situation... but a nice long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 .LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKEEFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Hey Trent, what part of town you from? I just moved to Mayfield Heights off of 271 from Cincy about a month ago. Excited to get in on some of the LES that cleveland gets. Can you post the WRF when it comes out or give me a link? Thanks! I live in the "snowless" side of town, right along the lake on the westside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 .LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKEEFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 10 AND 20 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. Hey thanks for the welcome! Yep, Lyndhurst is right down the road. Nice setup taking shape it appears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Well, looks like the cutoff for the snow will set up on the Pickaway/Franklin County line... everything is sliding just south of the Columbus area... we may end up seeing little more than flurries/light snow showers today... damn, so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The CLE WRF doesn't seem to update regularly. On thing I've noticed is that the WRF seems to have a southern bias with lake bands. Are you using the CLE WRF? Yeah, you can't beat a short commute. Cedar is not a fun road to travel on. Your normal snowfall will at least double if moved to the eastside... that would be enough to convince me to move. Home's are "cheap" right now... not a bad time to buy if you plan to stay. Too bad there are no homes at the top of Harvard and 271... elevation is 1290 feet there. Taxes in Shaker are ridiculous. Yeah, I noticed the ARW always has a southern bias. The taxes in Shaker are ridiculous, but it's a good compromise of snow and location to downtown. You can get good deals on homes in Maple Heights too, but I'd rather not live there. This should be a good event. Once again, I'm skeptical of being low in elevation. However, my area had about 25" back in April of 2007, and about 15" in 1996 looking at older maps, so huge totals at the lakeshore are not unheard of. Where is the CLE WRF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Come on over the eastside. Clev Heights isn't too bad either. Here's a link to the WRF - http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/wrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Hey thanks for the welcome! Yep, Lyndhurst is right down the road. Nice setup taking shape it appears! Even though the fetch is not the best... it will moving over the much warmer water in the central basin. Somewhere will probably exceed 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Well, looks like the cutoff for the snow will set up on the Pickaway/Franklin County line... everything is sliding just south of the Columbus area... we may end up seeing little more than flurries/light snow showers today... damn, so close. I know, right? Well at least on my way home Wednesday to Cincy I'll get to see exactly where the cutoff was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I know, right? Well at least on my way home Wednesday to Cincy I'll get to see exactly where the cutoff was We might end up being okay in the long run because of the extended chance of snow showers... and there are some upcoming threats. I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I'm watching the cincy - pitt game being played in cinci, looks like they're getting some heavy bursts of snow down there. Congrats guys. Haven't seen a snowflake here yet, hoping we can get into some les bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 We might end up being okay in the long run because of the extended chance of snow showers... and there are some upcoming threats. I'm not worried. Its nice to hear Im not alone lol! Theres no snow on the ground in parts of the U.P. and northern WI, not to mention VT, NH, and ME. Wayyyyy too much worry around here for it being the first few days of December, and we are in a cold pattern no less. But its par for the course on a weather board. Its always us climo geeks who worry the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I know, right? Well at least on my way home Wednesday to Cincy I'll get to see exactly where the cutoff was dude, apparently you need to stay in cincy.....you kill'n our karma up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 we have a few light flurries here ....but looking at radar that may be just about it. wow..... so far : advantage cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I don't understand CLE. They post a Lake Effect Snow Watch for 10 - 20" starting Sunday yet in the same local forecast for SW Geauga it says "1 to 2" possible". Surely one of these facts is misleading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 I don't understand CLE. They post a Lake Effect Snow Watch for 10 - 20" starting Sunday yet in the same local forecast for SW Geauga it says "1 to 2" possible". Surely one of these facts is misleading? The problem is that there is no consistency between point forecasts, the forecast discussion, zone area forecasts, watches, warnings etc. It really makes it difficult to figure what they are forecasting. It's just annoying to click on my point forecast and see an entirely different forecast than the text description from the warning. Why is it so hard for the NWS to coordinate all the products so that they present the same information? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Its nice to hear Im not alone lol! Theres no snow on the ground in parts of the U.P. and northern WI, not to mention VT, NH, and ME. Wayyyyy too much worry around here for it being the first few days of December, and we are in a cold pattern no less. But its par for the course on a weather board. Its always us climo geeks who worry the least. I think a lot of the worry for many seems to be the expectation that winter's ending come the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 we have a few light flurries here ....but looking at radar that may be just about it. wow..... so far : advantage cosgrove I have very little doubt that he's going to be wrong in his seasonal snowfall forecast for us. We'd have to repeat 1989-90 for something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Ironically, I'm seeing the best snow of the day right now. Very fine flakes, but lots of them. I noticed the returns on radar are moving more north to south now... perhaps we'll get into some lake enhancement as the night goes on into tomorrow. ILN says the best setup for bands will be from Cincy to Dayton... or those places that had the best snows today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Ironically, I'm seeing the best snow of the day right now. Very fine flakes, but lots of them. I noticed the returns on radar are moving more north to south now... perhaps we'll get into some lake enhancement as the night goes on into tomorrow. ILN says the best setup for bands will be from Cincy to Dayton... or those places that had the best snows today. Which is exactly the reason I'm not showing any pictures. Don't worry too much .. It was an inch or two here at my location. Still snowing very lightly Mile and a half Vis at FFO.. ....Roads are completely clear.. and wet, which means they will most likely ice up later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 The next two days are really going to be a crapshoot in terms of snowfall here. Things are lighting up on the Canada side though http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WSO There'll definitely be a Huron connection, just a matter of cashing in on it. I'm really not expecting more than 5" by Wednesday at my location, everything seems to be elevation enhanced, unless a solid firehose develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 dude, apparently you need to stay in cincy.....you kill'n our karma up here I leave Wednesday morning so here's to us both cashing in sometimes over the next few weeks We ended up with a solid dusting/coating here on campus. Sidewalks outside are slippery but the roads seem okay. Apparently the roads are quite icy down in the Cincy tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I leave Wednesday morning so here's to us both cashing in sometimes over the next few weeks We ended up with a solid dusting/coating here on campus. Sidewalks outside are slippery but the roads seem okay. Apparently the roads are quite icy down in the Cincy tonight.... we literally had about 10 cumulative minutes of LIGHT flurries here. In all fairness, most mets are saying this wasn't really a true clipper. In fact i just read LC and he said it wasn't a clipper at all. Kinda makes me feel better to know we weren't betrayed by our usual bread and butter snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 we literally had about 10 cumulative minutes of LIGHT flurries here. In all fairness, most mets are saying this wasn't really a true clipper. In fact i just read LC and he said it wasn't a clipper at all. Kinda makes me feel better to know we weren't betrayed by our usual bread and butter snow event. Models are hinting at something around days 10 - 13 quite a ways out, but something to watch fro anyways. May have a couple inch events this week, but nothing too major. Some potential for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 we literally had about 10 cumulative minutes of LIGHT flurries here. In all fairness, most mets are saying this wasn't really a true clipper. In fact i just read LC and he said it wasn't a clipper at all. Kinda makes me feel better to know we weren't betrayed by our usual bread and butter snow event. What part of Columbus are you in? We had fairly decent light snow from 6pm until 9pm then some very light flurries after that. Yeah it wasn't a real clipper so the general rule still applies for future events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The next two days are really going to be a crapshoot in terms of snowfall here. Things are lighting up on the Canada side though http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WSO There'll definitely be a Huron connection, just a matter of cashing in on it. I'm really not expecting more than 5" by Wednesday at my location, everything seems to be elevation enhanced, unless a solid firehose develops. Definitely hard to say how much snow will fall, and where for that matter. Winds really picked up overnight... with the stronger wind speeds would favor inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Definitely hard to say how much snow will fall, and where for that matter. Winds really picked up overnight... with the stronger wind speeds would favor inland areas. If it snows here, it won't be til Monday night into Tuesday. Things look ok on the NAM, but the hi-res models have almost nothing at the shore. In fact, if you look at the WRFs from Buffalo for the next 36 hours, the accumulations don't really look significant until the Geauga/Cuyahoga County border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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