Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[wxdudemike]

Maybe I spoke too soon about the clipper. It looks pretty good right now on radar and appears to be further east than models had it at this point, which may have implications for us further south considering it looked like it would miss us too far to the west. Something to monitor, of course, but it is a clipper and they tend to have surprises.

My final call was to one to locally two inches....but monitoring radar for possible upgrades. I don't see any reason to seriously consider us getting over two though for right now

Old background maps were centered over Cincy since that's where I live...haven't had time to change them for OSU but CMH is still on here:

*note*: doesn't include any LES

[dilly84]

Sad to say, but this weekend was looking like possibly our 1 chance of having snow on the ground for Christmas, looking at radar us in central ohio will be missed my a long shot. Looks like around 10 days of cold and dry then back to warmer and rain, Oh Well.

[wxdudemike]

For us in central ohio we have some hope. If we take the middle ground between the gfs and nam, we could see 2-4 inches. Also could see some les, as I'm seeing now. Nothing much but snow in the air.

Sad to say, but this weekend was looking like possibly our 1 chance of having snow on the ground for Christmas, looking at radar us in central ohio will be missed my a long shot. Looks like around 10 days of cold and dry then back to warmer and rain, Oh Well.

Bit of a change in tone

[Steve]

I just hope we can squezze an inch out of this..i keep watching the radar..moving south with a slight east movement..don't think it will move east enough untill it gets past us

[dilly84]

Bit of a change in tone

My first statement I looked at the models then looked at the radar before my last post. Central ohio was inbetween the snow on the 12zs, but radar clearly shows sw ohio getting snow not central.

[dilly84]

Hey JB, what's the snowiest dec. On record for cmh?

[michsnowfreak]

Sad to say, but this weekend was looking like possibly our 1 chance of having snow on the ground for Christmas, looking at radar us in central ohio will be missed my a long shot. Looks like around 10 days of cold and dry then back to warmer and rain, Oh Well.

Many snow-lovers have such short-term memories! Christmas is 22 days away. Do you know how many more possible chances the region will have at snow before then? And even so, do you honestly think an inch or two of fluffy snow would survive the 22 days to Christmas in central OH with no more snow? There will be chances, trust me. Many who are getting snow with this clipper today were singing your tune 3-4 days ago.

[Steve]

Local met Ben Gelber says it looks like storm may be growing and moving a bit more east..Which may put us in the 2 inch range!

[buckeye]

Hey JB, what's the snowiest dec. On record for cmh?

J will know for sure....but i'm thinking it was Dec 2000. I believe what also made it stand out was the fact that we didn't have a single 24 hr snowfall over 1"....something crazy like that. It was the ultimate nickle and dime scenario

as far as the next threat.....lots of models are signaling something late next weekend....we'll see

[jbcmh81]

Sad to say, but this weekend was looking like possibly our 1 chance of having snow on the ground for Christmas, looking at radar us in central ohio will be missed my a long shot. Looks like around 10 days of cold and dry then back to warmer and rain, Oh Well.

Come on, in 3 weeks with plenty of cold and you don't think we won't have at least one more storm to watch?

[jbcmh81]

Hey JB, what's the snowiest dec. On record for cmh?

I believe 1960 with over 17". December is the least snowiest month of the DJF period. Columbus' biggest daily snowfally since 1884 for December is only 7.9".

[wxdudemike]

Local met Ben Gelber says it looks like storm may be growing and moving a bit more east..Which may put us in the 2 inch range!

It's definitely trying, but I think we may only get that little bit up in MN/WI for our inch.

[jbcmh81]

Who wants to bet ILN puts up an advisory for Columbus sometime tomorrow?

[wxdudemike]

Who wants to bet ILN puts up an advisory for Columbus sometime tomorrow?

What is our advisory criteria up here? I thought it was 4 inches? If it's two, then maybe.

[jbcmh81]

What is our advisory criteria up here? I thought it was 4 inches? If it's two, then maybe.

An advisory is issued when snow is expected to accumulate three to five inches in 12 hours in Northern and Central Ohio and two to three inches in 12 hours in Southern Ohio.

That's from their website. I could see low-end advisory stuff if it continues to push easy. We'll see.

[wxdudemike]

An advisory is issued when snow is expected to accumulate three to five inches in 12 hours in Northern and Central Ohio and two to three inches in 12 hours in Southern Ohio.

That's from their website. I could see low-end advisory stuff if it continues to push easy. We'll see.

I'm not gonna get my hopes up and just see how it looks in the morning. But yeah it's looking a little better...

[dilly84]

Come on, in 3 weeks with plenty of cold and you don't think we won't have at least one more storm to watch?

Yep Jb, Looks cold for the next couple weeks, but no real major threats on the models for storms. Then we go back to a warmup. I just see out white Christmas odds at about 20% right now.

[jbcmh81]

Yep Jb, Looks cold for the next couple weeks, but no real major threats on the models for storms. Then we go back to a warmup. I just see out white Christmas odds at about 20% right now.

I really don't see an imminent warmup on models. Some people are suggesting a warm January, but that is hardly set in stone. And even warm Januarys can offer a lot of snow. January 1999 and 2005 are recent exampls. Both were at least 3 degrees above normal and both had above normal snowfall. Remember that every winter is different, as indices are different each winter. Just because it's a Nina winter does not automatically mean blowtorch. Look at the strong Nino we had last year, where normally it would mean dry and very warm, like 1997-98. Instead we threw in a super -AO and we had one of our best winters ever. 1950-51 was a fairly strong Nina... it featured a cold snowy December, warm but snowy January, and a arctic outbreak and more snow in February. Besides, models not showing something today does not mean it won't show up tomorrow. There will be more threats this month and later this winter.

[Trent]

These guys have been forecasting in the rea for quite some time. Not sure how they didn't see this coming...

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD LAKE AND GEAUGA TO THE ADVISORY. SNOW BAND DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY AND HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING. INDICATIONS FROM THE AREA ARE THAT 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN WITH MODERATE SNOW OCCURRING. LOCAL MODELS SHOW CONVERGENT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING THE BAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY BRING THE BAND INLAND HOWEVER THIS IS USUALLY ANTICIPATED BY THE MODELS WELL BEFORE IT ACTUALLY OCCURS. GENERALLY...THE FLOW AND TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE

EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY WILL UP ACCUMS TO 3 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES LAKE AND GEAUGA.

We've had virtually nothing, scattered snow showers, but nothing accumulating. Up to 0.4" for the season, with CLE at 0.6". To get snow here, I need a single intense band, otherwise the light showery stuff just develops a few miles inland.

[Trent]

This AFD is really hammering the snow potential.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING

CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS TO REESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. SINCE THE

FLOW WILL BE A BIT MORE FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THERE COULD ALSO BE

SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS AS FAR WEST AS CUYAHOGA

AND MEDINA COUNTIES. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT THE SNOWFALL

OVERNIGHT MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF NE OHIO.

FOR NOW HAVE WORDED THE FORECAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND

MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED. THE

HEAVIEST SNOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN OVER GEAUGA...LAKE AND

ASHTABULA COUNTIES.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED

TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW AND MAYBE AS FAR AS A WNW DIRECTION.

THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS OF SNOWFALL INTO THE PRIMARY

SNOWBELT. IF THE FLOW DOES COME AROUND FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST

NORTHWEST WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW AS FAR WEST

AS LORAIN AND NORTHERN MEDINA COUNTIES. AS THE NEXT SURGE OF

COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE AN

UPTICK IN SNOWFALL RATES. THIS CAUSED BY THE INCREASED LAPSE RATES

THAT WILL EXIST. THIS HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO GET

STARTED AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY

NIGHT. WE DID HOLD OFF ON A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NE OHIO AT

THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS DOES LOOK LIKE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT

OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA...ESPECIALLY FOR

LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO MEDINA TO

YOUNGSTOWN LINE.

[michsnowfreak]

We've had virtually nothing, scattered snow showers, but nothing accumulating. Up to 0.4" for the season, with CLE at 0.6". To get snow here, I need a single intense band, otherwise the light showery stuff just develops a few miles inland.

We are off to the same start here. 0.3" mby/0.4" DTW, all LES. It snowed for nearly 48 hours straight and thats what we ended up with.

[carumba]

This AFD is really hammering the snow potential.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING

CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS TO REESTABLISH THEMSELVES ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. SINCE THE

FLOW WILL BE A BIT MORE FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THERE COULD ALSO BE

SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS AS FAR WEST AS CUYAHOGA

AND MEDINA COUNTIES. WE ARE SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT THE SNOWFALL

OVERNIGHT MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF NE OHIO.

FOR NOW HAVE WORDED THE FORECAST WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND

MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED. THE

HEAVIEST SNOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN OVER GEAUGA...LAKE AND

ASHTABULA COUNTIES.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED

TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW AND MAYBE AS FAR AS A WNW DIRECTION.

THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS OF SNOWFALL INTO THE PRIMARY

SNOWBELT. IF THE FLOW DOES COME AROUND FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST

NORTHWEST WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOW AS FAR WEST

AS LORAIN AND NORTHERN MEDINA COUNTIES. AS THE NEXT SURGE OF

COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE AN

UPTICK IN SNOWFALL RATES. THIS CAUSED BY THE INCREASED LAPSE RATES

THAT WILL EXIST. THIS HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO GET

STARTED AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY

NIGHT. WE DID HOLD OFF ON A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR NE OHIO AT

THIS TIME. HOWEVER THIS DOES LOOK LIKE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT

OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA...ESPECIALLY FOR

LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO MEDINA TO

YOUNGSTOWN LINE.

At least Cleveland is true to form. They'll throw up an advisory about 1/2 hr after the event has begun.

[Powerball]

We are off to the same start here. 0.3" mby/0.4" DTW, all LES. It snowed for nearly 48 hours straight and thats what we ended up with.

I was looking up some interesting stats.

Not to make any correlation or assume this is what will happen, but past top 20 snowless Decembers in Detroit gave way to top 20 snowless seasons (or with a few exceptions average seasons), never top 20 snowiest.

Again, just an observation. It does at least look dry though mid month.

[michsnowfreak]

I was looking up some interesting stats.

Not to make any correlation or assume this is what will happen, but past top 20 snowless Decembers in Detroit gave way to top 20 snowless seasons (or with a few exceptions average seasons), never top 20 snowiest.

Again, just an observation. It does at least look dry though mid month.

Dont be such a worrywart lol . Bill Deedler's winter outlook is actually exactly on track so far, and in the end he calls for normal to above normal snow. I looked, and of the top 20 snowless Decembers, 4 had snowier than normal winters. However, it is December 4th. This December has just as much chance to make the top 20 snowiest as it does the top 20 snowless December's list. Interesting you say it looks dry through mid-month. First of all, you can never go by long-range models. Many who are getting snow with this clipper today were saying the exact same worries 3 days ago. And secondly, if you ARE going by the models, they are all showing several inches of snow Thu-Sat. Taking them verbatum, by next weekend (Dec 11/12) we would already have enough snow on the month to be out of the running at making a top 20 snowless December (#20 is 3.6").

[Trent]

Even with the low resolution of the NAM, should be some decent accumulations over the next few days. A bit worried at the shore, but a few miles inland will do great.

[NEOH]

This AFD is really hammering the snow potential.

HOWEVER THIS DOES LOOK LIKE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT

OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA...ESPECIALLY FOR

LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO MEDINA TO

YOUNGSTOWN LINE.

Ha! Almost the same quote from earlier in the week. But seriously, the next few days are going to fun around N OH. The lake is warm (except the western basin),there is going to be a favorable wind direction with lots of moisture around. There is an ominous looking sky over the lake right now. I have full sun and it is pitch black to the north. With the weak wind flow, you can easily the convergence just offshore on the visible satellite -

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Erie_Ontario

Once the storm to the southwest passes and the winds pick up later in the day the snow should start to fire up and come onshore. We just need more wind speed at least point... which isn't usually the case. I'm hoping the wind can back around to the WNW enough to get a single band.

[NEOH]

Even with the low resolution of the NAM, should be some decent accumulations over the next few days. A bit worried at the shore, but a few miles inland will do great.

I'll think you'll do ok near the lakeshore. As long as the wind stay on the lighter side this won't be just and inland event.

[Powerball]

Dont be such a worrywart lol . Bill Deedler's winter outlook is actually exactly on track so far, and in the end he calls for normal to above normal snow. I looked, and of the top 20 snowless Decembers, 4 had snowier than normal winters. However, it is December 4th. This December has just as much chance to make the top 20 snowiest as it does the top 20 snowless December's list. Interesting you say it looks dry through mid-month. First of all, you can never go by long-range models. Many who are getting snow with this clipper today were saying the exact same worries 3 days ago. And secondly, if you ARE going by the models, they are all showing several inches of snow Thu-Sat. Taking them verbatum, by next weekend (Dec 11/12) we would already have enough snow on the month to be out of the running at making a top 20 snowless December (#20 is 3.6").

Yes, like I said it was just an observation.

I tend not to put too much faith into clipppers this far out. Remember models were showing a broad areas of accumulating snow just a few days ago. Turns out the main show was in a narrow, 50-100 mile wide band. Also the best clippers weren't really picked up until the day before.

And yes, strictly from a climo standpoint I'm sure about the dry call through mid-month (10 - 12th clipper pending) as the dry NW flow combined with the strong -NAO isn't really favorable for much snow locally.

[buckeye]

An advisory is issued when snow is expected to accumulate three to five inches in 12 hours in Northern and Central Ohio and two to three inches in 12 hours in Southern Ohio.

That's from their website. I could see low-end advisory stuff if it continues to push easy. We'll see.

looks like some light snow showers this afternoon guys. I bet our best chance for accum will be between tomorrow afternoon and tuesday if we can catch some favorable fetches off lake MI.

things still look interesting later next weekend....maybe even late this week.

[Trent]

I'll think you'll do ok near the lakeshore. As long as the wind stay on the lighter side this won't be just and inland event.

I'm anxious to see the Hi-Res WRFs at 1:30 this afternoon. For the most part they are pretty good, they even had predicted the band in Lorain County yesterday. There should be a Huron connection, and with a more northerly wind, this side of town can do ok. I'm considering moving to Shaker or Beachwood next year, but I just don't want to deal with having to commute downtown on Cedar, or taking 271/480/90. It's hard to give up a 10 minute commute.