Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[NEOH]

I'm looking forward to first full scale lake effect potential. I'm sure there'll be some fly in the ointment though. Its good to cash in on LES early in the season while the lake has moderate temperatures. Last winter the flow was great once it iced over.

The lake will cool rapidly the next few days... should still be a good temp differential come Sunday though. I think the LES is going to come in waves as moisture wraps around the low to the NE. The wind direction looks to vary from 320 to 300 from Sunday night onward. Not the best fetch so there will probably be multiple bands.

[ArmyGreens]

I am traveling up to Cleveland tomorrow for an all weekend conference. Would love to see some ol fashion LES! Miss seeing it when I lived in west michigan. Although it looks pretty Christmasy here with our inch of snow!

[carumba]

I'm looking forward to first full scale lake effect potential. I'm sure there'll be some fly in the ointment though. Its good to cash in on LES early in the season while the lake has moderate temperatures. Last winter the flow was great once it iced over.

My understanding was you could get LES even with the lake iced over. Any idea how that works?

[Trent]

My understanding was you could get LES even with the lake iced over. Any idea how that works?

I think it has to do with a frictional difference? The amounts are significantly smaller when frozen over however.

CLE didn't mention much about the weekend potential in the aFd. The afds are like jekyl and hyde each day.

[wxdudemike]

lol...hate to say it but it looking more and more like the axis of heaviest is going to be closer to cincy than cmh on this one. Of course we're still 60 hrs out so some northeastward adjustment is always possible.

Man I'm starting to wonder now if we even can get an inch out of this I won't give up hope until tomorrow

[jbcmh81]

I'm going to say 2-3" is probably what we'll get here, with 3-5" in the southwest. It would be really unusual if it fell apart by the time it got here.

[Trent]

My office faces northeast looking over Lake Erie, you can just see the haze and plume of moisture feeding the band in Buffalo.

[wxdudemike]

I'm going to say 2-3" is probably what we'll get here, with 3-5" in the southwest. It would be really unusual if it fell apart by the time it got here.

Yeah I just can't see there being such a sharp, close cutoff to the precip up here like the NAM and to a lesser extent the GFS are showing. I'm holding to my 2-3 call for now, but if the models don't change by 12z runs tomorrow I might go 1-2.

[jbcmh81]

Yeah I just can't see there being such a sharp, close cutoff to the precip up here like the NAM and to a lesser extent the GFS are showing. I'm holding to my 2-3 call for now, but if the models don't change by 12z runs tomorrow I might go 1-2.

Not just the cutoff but some of them have the thing just drying out as it heads south and east. Even if we don't get much, the pattern looks to stay cold for awhile and there are some chances of snow. That's good enough for me in early-mid December, which by climo is not a good time for large events anyway.

[NEOH]

I think it has to do with a frictional difference? The amounts are significantly smaller when frozen over however.

CLE didn't mention much about the weekend potential in the aFd. The afds are like jekyl and hyde each day.

I wouldn't expect them to talk about it much until tomorrow when the models more accurately depict what is going to happen... they can then rip and read.

Not much forecasting goes on there I think.

Years ago I did an internship at CLE for school. I won't go in to details but coffee and food was probably the most important thing they were concerned with.

Still looking good for an extended LES event. The only fly in the ointment would be the short fetch. We may need some helps from troughs to get the heavy snow flying. I wouldn't be surprised if the flow backs more westerly than what the models showing. Thermal troughing should assist. 280-290 would get a nice single band going.

What building are you in?

[buckeye]

I'm going to say 2-3" is probably what we'll get here, with 3-5" in the southwest. It would be really unusual if it fell apart by the time it got here.

pretty much all the 12z models have dried it up quite a bit for our part of the woods. Now i believe those who said this isn't a true clipper. Clippers don't dry up on their way to cmh. Im thinking 1.5" with lollipops of 2-3".

Looks cold and dry for the next week following the clipper....then models hinting at a threat taking shape in the plains. Wouldn't it be ironic if after 10 days of well below normal temps our first storm ends up cutting to our west and we get rained on?

[wxdudemike]

pretty much all the 12z models have dried it up quite a bit for our part of the woods. Now i believe those who said this isn't a true clipper. Clippers don't dry up on their way to cmh. Im thinking 1.5" with lollipops of 2-3".

Looks cold and dry for the next week following the clipper....then models hinting at a threat taking shape in the plains. Wouldn't it be ironic if after 10 days of well below normal temps our first storm ends up cutting to our west and we get rained on?

Yeah, quite the Ohio screw job if we miss after 10 days of cold.

Euro gives CMH 0.01"

[buckeye]

pretty much all the 12z models have dried it up quite a bit for our part of the woods. Now i believe those who said this isn't a true clipper. Clippers don't dry up on their way to cmh. Im thinking 1.5" with lollipops of 2-3".

Looks cold and dry for the next week following the clipper....then models hinting at a threat taking shape in the plains. Wouldn't it be ironic if after 10 days of well below normal temps our first storm ends up cutting to our west and we get rained on?

just saw the text soundings for the 12z gfs. A couple of surprises:

first it only prints out .03" of precip for the clipper....1/2" of snow

second, temps never crack freezing thru 180 hrs....brrrrrrr during that time it shows about .15" of total precip

looks like we are settling into a cold dry december....very nina-ish. Gives cred to the potential for a blowtorch january

[Trent]

I wouldn't expect them to talk about it much until tomorrow when the models more accurately depict what is going to happen... they can then rip and read.

Not much forecasting goes on there I think.

Years ago I did an internship at CLE for school. I won't go in to details but coffee and food was probably the most important thing they were concerned with.

Still looking good for an extended LES event. The only fly in the ointment would be the short fetch. We may need some helps from troughs to get the heavy snow flying. I wouldn't be surprised if the flow backs more westerly than what the models showing. Thermal troughing should assist. 280-290 would get a nice single band going.

What building are you in?

I'm in North Point, great views of Lake Erie any time of year. The snow this weekend will probably be similar to late February of this year. Random 2-3 inches from impulses rotating through every 12 hours or so for several days straight.

[Trent]

And FWIW the arw wrf has an east west band through cuyahoga county from 1am til 9am tonight. Doubtful, but you never know. Remember late January of 2008?

[NEOH]

And FWIW the arw wrf has an east west band through cuyahoga county from 1am til 9am tonight. Doubtful, but you never know. Remember late January of 2008?

You couldn't have a better view than in North Pointe.

Models seem to always have the bands a little further south than what actually occurs. You just never know with LES though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the LES never dies out completely and keeps going from now through the end of next week. We just need a wind shift at this point... all the ingredients are there.

Refresh my memory on Jan '08... I'm drawing a blank.

[wxdudemike]

Well Buckeye, think it's about time to pull the plug on this one? I guess our only hope is that the shortwave won't be completely sampled until 12z tomorrow.

[Trent]

You couldn't have a better view than in North Pointe.

Models seem to always have the bands a little further south than what actually occurs. You just never know with LES though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the LES never dies out completely and keeps going from now through the end of next week. We just need a wind shift at this point... all the ingredients are there.

Refresh my memory on Jan '08... I'm drawing a blank.

Actually it was either late January or early February 2009. It was the LES storm that dumped 8-12" overnight with nothing in the forecast the night before.

Just a dusting here this morning again. The bands don't look too organized.

[buckeye]

Well Buckeye, think it's about time to pull the plug on this one? I guess our only hope is that the shortwave won't be completely sampled until 12z tomorrow.

I pulled the plug yesterday.....not ruling out a powdery inch or so though. Looks wintry for a while at least. Probably little periods of instability snowshowers and depending on how the flow sets up we could potentially catch some LES off lake michigan from time to time. After that all eyes turn to day 9-10.....lol......again. But the 00z euro has a nice fantasy storm for ohio at 240 taking a low up the central Apps.

[NEOH]

Actually it was either late January or early February 2009. It was the LES storm that dumped 8-12" overnight with nothing in the forecast the night before.

Just a dusting here this morning again. The bands don't look too organized.

Picked up about .5 this morning. Bands are starting to get more organized.... and should get better throughout the day. Not sure what to expect accumulation wise. The flow seems rather light so the heavy snow will not be limited to inland areas.... lakeshore areas should do ok. Sun is out in Chagrin. Skies are black to the N.

[Trent]

Picked up about .5 this morning. Bands are starting to get more organized.... and should get better throughout the day. Not sure what to expect accumulation wise. The flow seems rather light so the heavy snow will not be limited to inland areas.... lakeshore areas should do ok. Sun is out in Chagrin. Skies are black to the N.

Looks like two good bands are developing on either side of Cuyahoga County. Looks awesome out over the lake though.

[wxdudemike]

I pulled the plug yesterday.....not ruling out a powdery inch or so though. Looks wintry for a while at least. Probably little periods of instability snowshowers and depending on how the flow sets up we could potentially catch some LES off lake michigan from time to time. After that all eyes turn to day 9-10.....lol......again. But the 00z euro has a nice fantasy storm for ohio at 240 taking a low up the central Apps.

I saw that....Lock it in!

With a slightly weaker -AO/NAO we may have just the right amount of blocking to keep the storm from being a LC thought without going way south/east. I'll be back in Cincy for winter break by then, so I'll be rooting for us down there

[jbcmh81]

just saw the text soundings for the 12z gfs. A couple of surprises:

first it only prints out .03" of precip for the clipper....1/2" of snow

second, temps never crack freezing thru 180 hrs....brrrrrrr during that time it shows about .15" of total precip

looks like we are settling into a cold dry december....very nina-ish. Gives cred to the potential for a blowtorch january

I have my doubts that winter will end come January 1st. I have no doubt that we'll see warm periods during the winter, but Nina's are not typically full blown warm winters like the majority of stronger Ninos. If we have a predominantly -NAO this winter, I have a hard time seeing a blowtorch winter after December.

[jbcmh81]

I pulled the plug yesterday.....not ruling out a powdery inch or so though. Looks wintry for a while at least. Probably little periods of instability snowshowers and depending on how the flow sets up we could potentially catch some LES off lake michigan from time to time. After that all eyes turn to day 9-10.....lol......again. But the 00z euro has a nice fantasy storm for ohio at 240 taking a low up the central Apps.

Yeah, it just looks too weak now. If it was like a normal clipper, we would be sitting pretty. This is a rarity where it probably won't perform the way they normally do.

[Northernohio]

Starting to wish I was back home in Avon Lake instead of here in NW Ohio. Nice band set up right over lorain county.

[NEOH]

Looks like two good bands are developing on either side of Cuyahoga County. Looks awesome out over the lake though.

Snow is ripping pretty good right now. Huge flakes. Strange set-up to the bands. There must be quite a bit of shear as they are ragged. Hopefully they can condense and strengthen as the day goes on.

[jbcmh81]

Maybe I spoke too soon about the clipper. It looks pretty good right now on radar and appears to be further east than models had it at this point, which may have implications for us further south considering it looked like it would miss us too far to the west. Something to monitor, of course, but it is a clipper and they tend to have surprises.

[NEOH]

You couldn't have a better view than in North Pointe.

Models seem to always have the bands a little further south than what actually occurs. You just never know with LES though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the LES never dies out completely and keeps going from now through the end of next week. We just need a wind shift at this point... all the ingredients are there.

Refresh my memory on Jan '08... I'm drawing a blank.

These guys have been forecasting in the rea for quite some time. Not sure how they didn't see this coming...

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD LAKE AND GEAUGA TO THE ADVISORY. SNOW BAND DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY AND HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING. INDICATIONS FROM THE AREA ARE THAT 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN WITH MODERATE SNOW OCCURRING. LOCAL MODELS SHOW CONVERGENT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING THE BAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY BRING THE BAND INLAND HOWEVER THIS IS USUALLY ANTICIPATED BY THE MODELS WELL BEFORE IT ACTUALLY OCCURS. GENERALLY...THE FLOW AND TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE

EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND IN FACT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY WILL UP ACCUMS TO 3 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES LAKE AND GEAUGA.

[dilly84]

For us in central ohio we have some hope. If we take the middle ground between the gfs and nam, we could see 2-4 inches. Also could see some les, as I'm seeing now. Nothing much but snow in the air.

[dta1984]

Nice little snow here in Mayfield Heights near Cleveland today. If I had to guess 2-3" or so. Still snowing lightly. It looks like it is falling apart. Any chance we get more this weekend?