Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[carumba]

Here in Chagrin Falls it's been snowing on and off all morning. All outdoor surfaces are frozen so all the snow that's falling is sticking. Not enough snow to cover the grass completely. I'd say 1/2" or so has fallen.

[dilly84]

First measurable snow for central Ohio Id guess will be around the 8 - 10. Looks as though we're going to get a nice little cold shot around that time. I've got my focus around the 20th. Really hoping for a white Christmas.

[Powerball]

It appears 1955 - 1956 and 1973 - 1974 will end up being our final top 2 analogs.

Even then we're still headed into uncharted territory this season between the strong east-based La Nina, the strong SE ridge, the +QBO, the after effects of solar minimum and the strong greenland/pacific blocking.

[wxdudemike]

Anyone see the 0z Euro? Gives CMH 0.47" all snow next weekend....Although surface temps are 1-2 degrees too warm, but within model error right?

[NEOH]

CLE hitting the snowfall potential hard for later in the week. Hmmm... the wind direction doesn't look that great but perhaps I'm missing something.

COLDER AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA WILL CHANGE THE SHRA TO SHSN WEST TO EAST TUE NIGHT. A SERIES OF TROUGHS ROTATING SE INTO THE AREA WILL HELP POOL WRAP MOISTURE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHSN WILL DEVELOP BY WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE SNOWBELT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALMOST A GUARANTEE. THIS WILL EASILY BE THE BIGGEST SNOW EVENT SO FAR THIS SEASON.

[carumba]

CLE hitting the snowfall potential hard for later in the week. Hmmm... the wind direction doesn't look that great but perhaps I'm missing something.

COLDER AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA WILL CHANGE THE SHRA TO SHSN WEST TO EAST TUE NIGHT. A SERIES OF TROUGHS ROTATING SE INTO THE AREA WILL HELP POOL WRAP MOISTURE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHSN WILL DEVELOP BY WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOWBELT LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE SNOWBELT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALMOST A GUARANTEE. THIS WILL EASILY BE THE BIGGEST SNOW EVENT SO FAR THIS SEASON.

Yeah, I saw this too. Quite a reversal from just a day or two ago when they were proclaiming that W to SW winds meant the death of any snowfall except in Erie/extreme NE OH.

[NEOH]

Yeah, I saw this too. Quite a reversal from just a day or two ago when they were proclaiming that W to SW winds meant the death of any snowfall except in Erie/extreme NE OH.

Quite a reversal is right.

They must be anticipating the winds to turn more favorably after the troughs pass through. With mutiple troughs rotating through the bands will be on the move quite a bit. I'm really not sure why they are so bullish. 850's are good, but not that extreme. Must be good moisture which can help overcome a few negatives when it comes to LES.

[carumba]

Quite a reversal is right.

They must be anticipating the winds to turn more favorably after the troughs pass through. With mutiple troughs rotating through the bands will be on the move quite a bit. I'm really not sure why they are so bullish. 850's are good, but not that extreme. Must be good moisture which can help overcome a few negatives when it comes to LES.

I've lived here in the snowbelt for 5 years and if there's one thing I've learned to expect it's to expect the unexpected. Lake effect is very hard to predict even a few hours out so they must really feel good about this, NWS CLE ain't the most bullish around.

[jbcmh81]

I like the occasional lake enhancement here in central Ohio, but it seems like NEOH has not had good LES the last few winters. I would hate to have to rely on that to make my seasonal average. That said, it does seem that, at least with synoptic storms, we've had a very good run the last 7 of very large events. I don't have all my records, but I went over them enough to know that we've had an unusual amount of storms 6" or above, and especially in regards to double-digit snowfalls.

Just in the last decade:

February 15th-16th, 2010: 10.4"

February 5th-6th, 2010: 9.9"

January 27th-28th, 2009: 7.4" (came in two waves)

January 13th-14th 2009: 6.3" (clipper)

March 7th-8th, 2008: 20.5"

February 13th-14th, 2007: 6.2"

December 22-23, 2004: 6.6"

February 14-17th, 2003: 15.5"

Previous to 2003, our last double-digit was in April 1987, and before that to 1964. 6" snows are also somewhat far less common before the present decade or so outside of some of the more historic winters like 1998-99, 95-96, 93-94, and 84-85, etc. It's possible that we've entered a snowier period similar to the 60s, but time will tell.

[carumba]

I like the occasional lake enhancement here in central Ohio, but it seems like NEOH has not had good LES the last few winters. I would hate to have to rely on that to make my seasonal average. That said, it does seem that, at least with synoptic storms, we've had a very good run the last 7 of very large events. I don't have all my records, but I went over them enough to know that we've had an unusual amount of storms 6" or above, and especially in regards to double-digit snowfalls.

Just in the last decade:

February 15th-16th, 2010: 10.4"

February 5th-6th, 2010: 9.9"

January 27th-28th, 2009: 7.4" (came in two waves)

January 13th-14th 2009: 6.3" (clipper)

March 7th-8th, 2008: 20.5"

February 13th-14th, 2007: 6.2"

December 22-23, 2004: 6.6"

February 14-17th, 2003: 15.5"

Previous to 2003, our last double-digit was in April 1987, and before that to 1964. 6" snows are also somewhat far less common before the present decade or so outside of some of the more historic winters like 1998-99, 95-96, 93-94, and 84-85, etc. It's possible that we've entered a snowier period similar to the 60s, but time will tell.

Ja, for sure, lake effect has sucked the last two winters here. However prior to that we had some doozie events, Easter 2007 anyone?

[NEOH]

I've lived here in the snowbelt for 5 years and if there's one thing I've learned to expect it's to expect the unexpected. Lake effect is very hard to predict even a few hours out so they must really feel good about this, NWS CLE ain't the most bullish around.

lol from the afternoon AFD. Models haven't changed that much. Complete turnaround from the previous AFD.

WILL NEED TO KEEP WIND HEADLINES THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.BY THAT TIME THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. MODELS STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD 18 TO 24 HOURS OF RAINFALL. QPFS COULD AGAIN EXCEED AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW EVENING IN THE WEST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK. WILL NEED TO KEEP HIGH POPS FOR THE

EAST. MORE OF THE SAME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF KCLE. SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED HEADLINES. A GENERAL W TO NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT DURING THAT PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE SUNSHINE FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE MILD BUT AFTER THAT...READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. -- End Changed Discussion --

[NEOH]

I like the occasional lake enhancement here in central Ohio, but it seems like NEOH has not had good LES the last few winters. I would hate to have to rely on that to make my seasonal average. That said, it does seem that, at least with synoptic storms, we've had a very good run the last 7 of very large events. I don't have all my records, but I went over them enough to know that we've had an unusual amount of storms 6" or above, and especially in regards to double-digit snowfalls.

It's been interesting... we've had more late season LES events the past few winters than I can remember. Early season LES events have become few and far between. The best early season

set-ups tend to favor the WSW flow lake belts like WNY. As for hating to rely on it for snowfall... I couldn't imagine living anywhere that didn't have an opportunity to get lake effect. Winter is much more enjoyable (for me at least) to not to have to rely on every synoptic system to produce snowfall.

[Trent]

lol from the afternoon AFD. Models haven't changed that much. Complete turnaround from the previous AFD.

WILL NEED TO KEEP WIND HEADLINES THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.BY THAT TIME THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. MODELS STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD 18 TO 24 HOURS OF RAINFALL. QPFS COULD AGAIN EXCEED AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW EVENING IN THE WEST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK. WILL NEED TO KEEP HIGH POPS FOR THE

EAST. MORE OF THE SAME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF KCLE. SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED HEADLINES. A GENERAL W TO NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT DURING THAT PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE SUNSHINE FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE MILD BUT AFTER THAT...READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. -- End Changed Discussion --

Not much consistency. Flow looks more favorable for Buffalo than anything else. Winds eventually shift more wnw, but moisture is lacking by then.

[Trent]

Well folks, the Euro is showing a decent snow event for Ohio on Saturday. Looks like it would be 6-8" event for the north half,if i'm seeing right.

[carumba]

Not much consistency. Flow looks more favorable for Buffalo than anything else. Winds eventually shift more wnw, but moisture is lacking by then.

If anything it shows KCLE forgot to take their Prozac. Two days ago the discussion was for W to SW winds, then this morning it was for decent snowfall, now they've changed their tune again to "likely". Frankly I'd rather they stuck to being their usual, consistent, conservative selves.

[NEOH]

Well folks, the Euro is showing a decent snow event for Ohio on Saturday. Looks like it would be 6-8" event for the north half,if i'm seeing right.

I've been trying to ignore that as to not get my hopes it. It does looks legit though. Not sure about the amounts.

Its funny to watch CLE waffle back and forth on the LES potential. Whoever wrote last nights AFD must have had a few drinks beforehand.

[carumba]

I've been trying to ignore that as to not get my hopes it. It does looks legit though. Not sure about the amounts.

Its funny to watch CLE waffle back and forth on the LES potential. Whoever wrote last nights AFD must have had a few drinks beforehand.

KCLE is the same every winter. Agree though, last night's writer slipped his hand when pouring rum into the eggnog for sure.

[OHweather]

Ok good, I wasn't the only one who noticed CLE's inconsistancy. With the mainly west flow until things start drying out, I can agree with more light accumulations over NE Ohio although some sort of an advisory may eventually be needed for Erie/Crawford counties in PA and maybe even Ashtabula/Lake counties with a due west flow. Although I don't think they are virtually guarunteed yet

[carumba]

Ok good, I wasn't the only one who noticed CLE's inconsistancy. With the mainly west flow until things start drying out, I can agree with more light accumulations over NE Ohio although some sort of an advisory may eventually be needed for Erie/Crawford counties in PA and maybe even Ashtabula/Lake counties with a due west flow. Although I don't think they are virtually guarunteed yet

I'll take just enough snow to cover the grass, 2" ought to do it.

[Trent]

The weekend potential looks good... 7 days out. Flow looks northerly the latter half of the weekend too, with decent moisture for lake effect.

[Trent]

Also time to pencil in another above normal temperature month for CLE, albeit probably just ending up at +1.4 for the month. Maybe the 16 month streak will end in December?

[buckeye]

Also time to pencil in another above normal temperature month for CLE, albeit probably just ending up at +1.4 for the month. Maybe the 16 month streak will end in December?

article in columbus dispatch says cleveland now in it's second all time longest snowless period (250 days). First was in 1893 (267 days). Looks like the 1893 record will stand though.

[NEOH]

article in columbus dispatch says cleveland now in it's second all time longest snowless period (250 days). First was in 1893 (267 days). Looks like the 1893 record will stand though.

It has been a long stretch. Didn't realize it had been that long.

I'm sure CLE had measurable snow back in early Nov, and this past weekend... but I won't even get into how snow is measured there. Regardless, a very long stretch to go without measurable snow.

Without the LES we've had, I'd be at 0 for the season as well. 3.3 IMBY to date.

[NEOH]

The weekend potential looks good... 7 days out. Flow looks northerly the latter half of the weekend too, with decent moisture for lake effect.

Weekend definitely has potential. Inch or two with the system moving through then LES behind. Flow looks great for a all encompassing lake effect event. 850's on the Euro are cold (-14?). Moisture should be good as well. *All subject to change of course.

[NEOH]

Next batch of rain moving north. Closing in on 5 inches for the month. Great for soil moisture conditions. I know that DT has mentioned on occasion that the dry soils in the SE part of the country contribute to the strength of the SE ridge. Wonder what, if any impact the recent rains will have on this. Might not be a bad thing for the ridge to bulge up next week in hopes that the fantasy storm comes NW.

[carumba]

article in columbus dispatch says cleveland now in it's second all time longest snowless period (250 days). First was in 1893 (267 days). Looks like the 1893 record will stand though.

I'd say the problem is less due to the late start of this winter than the abbreviated end to the prior one.

[Trent]

I'd say the problem is less due to the late start of this winter than the abbreviated end to the prior one.

It's a combo of both, we are potentially looking at the third latest start for snow at CLE, if we make it to Friday without any.

[Steve]

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Worth a look!!

[dilly84]

So much rain has fallen today. Nonstop downpours most of the day. Looks like we're going to get into seasonable temps this week, and through the extended forecast period

[ArmyGreens]

Flakes are flyin in Ohio