Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[NEOH]

Yep. Such a shame. Kind of a dud here for 3 day's worth of snow. As I predicted a few days ago, CLE will probably end up with between 7-8" over the 4 day total, but snow depth is just a meager 2 inches. Also, what's up with the expansion of an advisory for Lorain and Medina? There's virtually nothing on the radar for Medina, and just a few blobs around parts of Lorain.

This would probably be really hard to look up, but this has got be a record for the latest first all encompassing system snow for NE Ohio. The Tuesday storm is looking a lot juicier now, perhaps .15" of QPF.

I can't believe how quickly the iced formed... literally one day. Light winds last night did it. Either the winds are too light or too strong it seems. Lake county is getting hit pretty good right now. Hard to imagine that there isn't enough breaks in the ice for snow development back to the west. Looks like CLE is sticking with the warnings. They just can't win over there. I really can't see warning criteria snows west of lake county.

I guess we can look forward to all the great synoptic events on the horizon.

[dilly84]

Euro has over .3" of QPF for this coming storm at CMH

0z gave me .4 so I am anxious to see the 12z because euro has consistently upped the qpf with each run.

[Trent]

I can't believe how quickly the iced formed... literally one day. Light winds last night did it. Either the winds are too light or too strong it seems. Lake county is getting hit pretty good right now. Hard to imagine that there isn't enough breaks in the ice for snow development back to the west. Looks like CLE is sticking with the warnings. They just can't win over there. I really can't see warning criteria snows west of lake county.

I guess we can look forward to all the great synoptic events on the horizon.

The ice at edgewater is far as the eye can see. Literally froze in a day.

I almost feel bad for CLE. Their track record the past 3 winters for LES has to be 20-40% accurate.

At least it's a nice sunny Saturday!

[NEOH]

The ice at edgewater is far as the eye can see. Literally froze in a day.

I almost feel bad for CLE. Their track record the past 3 winters for LES has to be 20-40% accurate.

At least it's a nice sunny Saturday!

Looks like the western central basin is iced the most. From CLE east is open. Went out to a family members house in lake county... a good 8 inches out there and the snow was still flying. I went from sunny skies just west of 91 to a whiteout in less than a 1/4 mile.

Winds are starting to pick up which MAY help break up the ice and allow for some snow to develop. Probably just wishcasting but we'll see.

[dta1984]

I just drove out to Mentor and it was snowing quite heavily out there. I really expected CLE to lower the snowfall totals in the grid forecast at the update, but they upped them. I am now 3-7 today, 3-7 tonight and 1-2 tomorrow. I really hope things pick up later. It is snowing lightly now here though.

[NEOH]

I just drove out to Mentor and it was snowing quite heavily out there. I really expected CLE to lower the snowfall totals in the grid forecast at the update, but they upped them. I am now 3-7 today, 3-7 tonight and 1-2 tomorrow. I really hope things pick up later. It is snowing lightly now here though.

CLE is not backing down on the warnings for tonight AND tomorrow. Even more bullish than earlier. Gluttons for punishment I guess... they must not have looked at the visible satellite.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST

SUNDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMISH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT. RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NEAR ZERO

VISIBILITES POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS. SNOWFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO LOCALLY 8 INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER UNDER

PERSISTENT BANDS AMOUNTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. BY NOON SUNDAY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 18 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AKRON...RAVENNA AND WARREN MAY ONLY GET A FEW INCHES OF

SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

[carumba]

CLE is not backing down on the warnings for tonight AND tomorrow. Even more bullish than earlier. Gluttons for punishment I guess... they must not have looked at the visible satellite.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST

SUNDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMISH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT. RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH NEAR ZERO

VISIBILITES POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS. SNOWFALL TOTALS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO LOCALLY 8 INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER UNDER

PERSISTENT BANDS AMOUNTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. BY NOON SUNDAY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 18 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AKRON...RAVENNA AND WARREN MAY ONLY GET A FEW INCHES OF

SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

Yeah, I don't get it either. Here in Chagrin Falls it has been snowing on and off but never very heavily. In fact for a couple hours in the late morning/early afternoon we had partly sunny. With snow falling at its current rate I find it hard to see how we will get the 4 - 8" they're forecasting for our area here for tonight.

[NEOH]

Yeah, I don't get it either. Here in Chagrin Falls it has been snowing on and off but never very heavily. In fact for a couple hours in the late morning/early afternoon we had partly sunny. With snow falling at its current rate I find it hard to see how we will get the 4 - 8" they're forecasting for our area here for tonight.

We had sun here for several hours as well. You have to really question CLE's logic.... or lack thereof. Clearly ice cover is limiting snowfall west of Cuyahoga county. Do they take the time to view satellite images? But who knows, they are the mets. The local models, which are supposed to the best at forecasting LES, do not show this type of snowfall whatsoever. A VERY localized area of geauga or ashtabula may see significant snowfall... but it will probably be less than 5% of the area that is under a warning.

Snow is diminishing on radar. Looking at the satellite, there is a small low (not sure if its a meso low) over southern lake huron. If that should rotate south tonight that may be enough to set off the lake effect again. Usually when lake effect stops its hard to get it going again.

[Trent]

I just drove out to Mentor and it was snowing quite heavily out there. I really expected CLE to lower the snowfall totals in the grid forecast at the update, but they upped them. I am now 3-7 today, 3-7 tonight and 1-2 tomorrow. I really hope things pick up later. It is snowing lightly now here though.

CLE is not backing down on the warnings for tonight AND tomorrow. Even more bullish than earlier. Gluttons for punishment I guess... they must not have looked at the visible satellite.

Yeah, I don't get it either. Here in Chagrin Falls it has been snowing on and off but never very heavily. In fact for a couple hours in the late morning/early afternoon we had partly sunny. With snow falling at its current rate I find it hard to see how we will get the 4 - 8" they're forecasting for our area here for tonight.

Yeah. I don't get it. They upped my forecast too. 3-7", 2-4", 1-2". As much as I would love to get 6-13" here, it's not going to happen.

[Trent]

We had sun here for several hours as well. You have to really question CLE's logic.... or lack thereof. Clearly ice cover is limiting snowfall west of Cuyahoga county. Do they take the time to view satellite images? But who knows, they are the mets. The local models, which are supposed to the best at forecasting LES, do not show this type of snowfall whatsoever. A VERY localized area of geauga or ashtabula may see significant snowfall... but it will probably be less than 5% of the area that is under a warning.

Snow is diminishing on radar. Looking at the satellite, there is a small low (not sure if its a meso low) over southern lake huron. If that should rotate south tonight that may be enough to set off the lake effect again. Usually when lake effect stops its hard to get it going again.

In CLE's defense lake effect is difficult to forecast. The nature of the beast is that when you have metro area of 3 million people, 250,000 might get the warning criteria snowfall, but 2.75 million people are going to get an inch or two and partly sunny skies.

Good news is that we have our first system snow to track.

NAM spits out a solid 5 or 6 inches across northeast Ohio for Tuesday night, but still a lot of time left for this play out.

[OHweather]

Looks like as of this image at 1:40pm eastern time, there were significant breaks in the ice over the central basin. However, even with fairly deep synoptic moisture and high inversions, the ice is clearly limiting things...

As some have pointed out, it is clear how limited the lake effect is west of Lake/Geauga counties due to the ice:

[NEOH]

In CLE's defense lake effect is difficult to forecast. The nature of the beast is that when you have metro area of 3 million people, 250,000 might get the warning criteria snowfall, but 2.75 million people are going to get an inch or two and partly sunny skies.

Good news is that we have our first system snow to track.

NAM spits out a solid 5 or 6 inches across northeast Ohio for Tuesday night, but still a lot of time left for this play out.

Yeah, LES is difficult to forecast... no question. They are playing it safe which I kinda understand. They've just been burned too many times this year. But it's pretty apparent even to the novice what will happen tonight. Again, I could be wrong... which I hope I am. According to CLE, at the minimum I will have a fresh 8 inches on the ground by tomorrow afternoon. We missed out on the 3-7 this afternoon but I won't hold it against them.

If that low over lake huron drops down tonight that just deliver 1-3 to the area. even that is a long shot.

System snow... what's that

It's the leftover christmas ales talking, not me.

[Trent]

Looks like as of this image at 1:40pm eastern time, there were significant breaks in the ice over the central basin. However, even with fairly deep synoptic moisture and high inversions, the ice is clearly limiting things...

As some have pointed out, it is clear how limited the lake effect is west of Lake/Geauga counties due to the ice:

That clearly shows a huge chunk of ice cover northwest of Cleveland, with a little open gap north over Lorain and Sandusky (hence why there's been a little pesky band that popped up to the south of there) Otherwise most of Cuyahoga should have done fairly well today.

[Trent]

Yeah, LES is difficult to forecast... no question. They are playing it safe which I kinda understand. They've just been burned too many times this year. But it's pretty apparent even to the novice what will happen tonight. Again, I could be wrong... which I hope I am. According to CLE, at the minimum I will have a fresh 8 inches on the ground by tomorrow afternoon. We missed out on the 3-7 this afternoon but I won't hold it against them.

If that low over lake huron drops down tonight that just deliver 1-3 to the area. even that is a long shot.

System snow... what's that

It's the leftover christmas ales talking, not me.

The radar tells the story. I'm thinking 4-8 tenths of an inch will do for tonight, and even that's pushing it.

Euro and NAM are in agreement for Tuesday. I wish we can get some strong winds to jar the ice up a bit, would be nice to get some enhancement out of this as well.

[OHweather]

That clearly shows a huge chunk of ice cover northeast of Cleveland, with a little open gap north over Lorain and Sandusky (hence why there's been a little pesky band that popped up to the south of there) Otherwise most of Cuyahoga should have done fairly well today.

Definitely. Am hoping we see some holes remain for a few days, because the NAM/ECM/CMC are all hinting at a cold cyclonic flow with decent wrap around moisture after the Tuesday system which should see a primary track through the Ohio Valley with a negative tilted trough so far west (so I think we could be looking at a widespread 3-6" synoptic event). Lake enhancement might add a couple inches I'd guess but the lake may be too frozen for much more, although if NW winds whip up behind the storm we might break things up a little.

[Trent]

Wow. CLE just upped the totals again. It was 2-4" now it's 3-5" tonight. Tomorrow was 1-3", now it's 2-4". What are they looking at? I'd love to read their reasoning/rationale. I hope the local media outlets are not regurgitating this stuff.

[Trent]

Alright, this answers it:

http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WSO

If that continues to head south and pick up some moisture where cracks in the ice remain, some areas could do well.

It dumped 8" in 3 hours as it grazed the thumb of Michigan.

[NEOH]

Alright, this answers it:

http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WSO

If that continues to head south and pick up some moisture where cracks in the ice remain, some areas could do well.

Yep, I've been watching that low drop south for hours now. Looks like it will slide just east of here... and bring more heavy snow to the far eastern counties tonight.

Looking at the visible satellite OHWeather posted, it's done for cuyahoga county. A sheet of ice formed parallel to the wind flow . With the wind direction not moving that much, cuyahoga county is the worst place to be.

[NEOH]

Alright, this answers it:

http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WSO

If that continues to head south and pick up some moisture where cracks in the ice remain, some areas could do well.

It dumped 8" in 3 hours as it grazed the thumb of Michigan.

If this verifies I'll eat my shoe -

Lake Effect Snow Warning

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Short Term Forecast

Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as zero. West wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow showers likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 22. West wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

[Trent]

Yep, I've been watching that low drop south for hours now. Looks like it will slide just east of here... and bring more heavy snow to the far eastern counties tonight.

Looking at the visible satellite OHWeather posted, it's done for cuyahoga county. A sheet of ice formed parallel to the wind flow . With the wind direction not moving that much, cuyahoga county is the worst place to be.

It's about 6 hours away. You never know. I'd love for the NWS to redeem themselves by scoring a big win with this, but Lake Erie's ice cover really hurts our chances. Sad thing is, is that it's only going to ice up more this week.

[OHweather]

Welp, the low is visible on CLE's radar. Man oh man, southeast Cuyahoga county would probably be pushing 6"+ on the day if it weren't for the ice:

[NEOH]

It's about 6 hours away. You never know. I'd love for the NWS to redeem themselves by scoring a big win with this, but Lake Erie's ice cover really hurts our chances. Sad thing is, is that it's only going to ice up more this week.

You and me both. The way it looks now... the meso low is weakening and moving ESE opposed to due south. We may luck and catch the western fringe. I guess we'll see tomorrow morning.

[NEOH]

Welp, the low is visible on CLE's radar. Man oh man, southeast Cuyahoga county would probably be pushing 6"+ on the day if it weren't for the ice:

Yeah, the coverage over cuyahoga would have looked the same as points east had there not been ice cover. Hopefully the low will continue to press due south and stir things up.

[Trent]

You and me both. The way it looks now... the meso low is weakening and moving ESE opposed to due south. We may luck and catch the western fringe. I guess we'll see tomorrow morning.

We'll see come tomorrow. This discussion is kind of funny. From the snow reports out of Medina and Lorain, there wasn't anything even close to advisory level. Virtually, nothing at all today in Cuyahoga/Summimt County as well despite a warning all day long. You'd think the discussion would at least mention that and the ice cover?

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE ARE BEING TEMPORARILY

DISRUPTED BY A NICE LOOKING MID LEVEL VORTEX EMBEDDED IN A SHORT

WAVE ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE HURON. AS THIS WAVE GOES BY...THE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESUME. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO VEER

A LITTLE BEHIND THE WAVE. LAKE HURON WILL BEGIN CONTRIBUTING TO

THE PROCESS AGAIN. IF I WAS A BETTING MAN...I WOULD SAY THAT MOST

OF THE SNOW IS DONE FOR LORAIN AND WESTERN MEDINA COUNTY BUT WITH

A HINT OF NORTH FLOW TONIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE PASSING BY...WILL

NOT CANCEL THE ADVISORY YET. WANT TO MAKE SURE THERE IS NOT ONE

LAST GASP FOR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOWBELT. I SUSPECT

THAT WHEN THE SNOW SHOWER RESUME IN THE SNOWBELT THAT THEY WILL

BECOME HEAVY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY

WHERE THE LAKE HURON BAND ENHANCES THE SNOW...PROBABLY IN

ASHTABULA COUNTY AS WELL AS ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN

NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. WILL KEEP THE SAME SNOW ACCUMULATION

FORECAST AS THE EARLIER FORECAST.

[Trent]

Yeah, the coverage over cuyahoga would have looked the same as points east had there not been ice cover. Hopefully the low will continue to press due south and stir things up.

CLE is an NWS office that can't forecast lake effect. Could we somehow get the BUF mets to take over all lake effect snow forecasting for NE Ohio?

This has got to take the cake, the continual upping of snowfall totals when nothing was falling and discussions that failed to even mention what was going on. It seemed that they were oblivious that nothing was falling at all yesterday for Cuyahoga and Summit Counties.

What's sad is that they were still honking this late last night after the radar completely cleared up. What's more sad is that anyone who uses the NWS for their weather information, saw a forecast of 6-12" last night, with 100% chance of snow.

If you were to add up each period's forecasted snow starting on Thursday, you'd have at minimum 18 inches of snow. ouch.

[roardog]

CLE is an NWS office that can't forecast lake effect. Could we somehow get the BUF mets to take over all lake effect snow forecasting for NE Ohio?

This has got to take the cake, the continual upping of snowfall totals when nothing was falling and discussions that failed to even mention what was going on. It seemed that they were oblivious that nothing was falling at all yesterday for Cuyahoga and Summit Counties.

What's sad is that they were still honking this late last night after the radar completely cleared up. What's more sad is that anyone who uses the NWS for their weather information, saw a forecast of 6-12" last night, with 100% chance of snow.

If you were to add up each period's forecasted snow starting on Thursday, you'd have at minimum 18 inches of snow. ouch.

Did any snow fall last night? Ice coverage the killer?

[carumba]

CLE is an NWS office that can't forecast lake effect. Could we somehow get the BUF mets to take over all lake effect snow forecasting for NE Ohio?

This has got to take the cake, the continual upping of snowfall totals when nothing was falling and discussions that failed to even mention what was going on. It seemed that they were oblivious that nothing was falling at all yesterday for Cuyahoga and Summit Counties.

What's sad is that they were still honking this late last night after the radar completely cleared up. What's more sad is that anyone who uses the NWS for their weather information, saw a forecast of 6-12" last night, with 100% chance of snow.

If you were to add up each period's forecasted snow starting on Thursday, you'd have at minimum 18 inches of snow. ouch.

They have finally pulled back the snow forecast here in southwestern Geauga to a 1/2". Not sure how much, if any, fell last night after midnight in accordance with the NWS forecast but at a glance in the backyard I'd say ... nothing.

I feel bad for CLE, lake effect is hard to forecast, but they were really Bastardiing this event and it came to naught for most of the area.

[Trent]

Did any snow fall last night? Ice coverage the killer?

Not a flake. I suppose a few isolated places might have picked up a few tenths. I don't know what CLE was thinking. We were under a Lake Effect Snow Warning from Friday afternoon through this morning. The snow was supposed to become heavy during the early hours of Saturday morning. Very little in the way of bands developed, and those that did died quickly. A brief clearing midday showed the coverage of ice on Lake Erie, which was preventing any LES for Cuyahoga and Summit (Cleveland and Akron). Despite this, CLE actually continued the warnings, and bumped up the totals for afternoon and overnight. Even the late night AFDs continued mentioning the heavy snow, and bumped accums an additional 1-2" for the overnight.

I really don't know what they were thinking/looking at. The satellite shot of the ice cover should have given it away, or at least the radar, or at minimum the amount of snow that fell the night prior with same dynamics, or maybe the fact that not one meso model showed any more snow over the area.

They've dropped the ball on pretty much every LES event this winter. The public here must have no faith at all in weather forecasting anymore.

[Trent]

About time! Normally the 10 am PNS should be out by now. I wonder if anyone got more than an inch last night? After this weekend's snow debacle, I wonder how they'll play out the Tuesday storm. NAM has .54" of QPF for CLE which translates to about 7.5" of snow. With another cry of wolf, the public might not take the bait on this.

I find this blurb pretty funny:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WILL GO AHEAD AND GET RID OF THE REMAINING HEADLINES IN A BIT.

SATELLITE STILL SHOWING A CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON BUT CALLS

AROUND TO NE OH AND NW PA INDICATING THAT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF

ACCUMULATION OCCURRING. WILL JUST GO WITH SCATTERED WORDING WITH

LOCAL ACCUMS UP TO THREE INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EVEN

THAT IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO HIGH. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE

FORECAST WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALL AREAS BY

TWO OR THREE DEGREES.

[NEOH]

About time! Normally the 10 am PNS should be out by now. I wonder if anyone got more than an inch last night? After this weekend's snow debacle, I wonder how they'll play out the Tuesday storm. NAM has .54" of QPF for CLE which translates to about 7.5" of snow. With another cry of wolf, the public might not take the bait on this.

Nada IMBY last night. Wasn't surprised a bit so it was a little less painful.

As some have mentioned, it is very difficult to forecast lake effect. The most challenging part I would say is forecasting snowfall amounts... not whether or not it will form or not. That part of the equation is relatively easy. If the forecasters would have taken one look at the visible satellite... they would have known there was no moisture source west of CLE given the fetch over almost solid ice.

Tuesday's storm is looking more promising. 6-10?