Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[BuckeyeSam]

You're a trip dilly...lol. You've got winter canceled at the beginning of Jan. Isn't that like canceling summer on the 4th of July?

Looks like I am sticking with my winter cancel. LOL. Shows a storm then crushes it the next day. Too much blocking. Just a depressing winter. I say bring on spring. This winter blows.

[Trent]

I'm having visions of December 8th looking outside right now. Discussion says drying and end to LES by daybreak, but look at the radar light up. Doubtful it will last long though.

[NEOH]

I'm having visions of December 8th looking outside right now. Discussion says drying and end to LES by daybreak, but look at the radar light up. Doubtful it will last long though.

It is snowing nicely. Not sure what caused the snow to fire up like it has. Nice flake size as well. It probably won't last long looking upstream but it's nice to see the snow again.

The Thursday night - Saturday time frame is looking pretty good right now. Hopefully the ice cover in the western basin won't limit snowfall too much.

[michsnowfreak]

You're a trip dilly...lol. You've got winter canceled at the beginning of Jan. Isn't that like canceling summer on the 4th of July?

AMEN!!!

[Trent]

It is snowing nicely. Not sure what caused the snow to fire up like it has. Nice flake size as well. It probably won't last long looking upstream but it's nice to see the snow again.

The Thursday night - Saturday time frame is looking pretty good right now. Hopefully the ice cover in the western basin won't limit snowfall too much.

.75" downtown in the hour, sun is out now. Looks like it avoided the airport for measurement purposes. We've now passed the 1/3rd mark of the snow season.

Latter half of the week looks like we'll have a few inches. But you know the drill, inch or two of fluff here or there, peaks of sunshine in between. Yawn.

[NEOH]

.75" downtown in the hour, sun is out now. Looks like it avoided the airport for measurement purposes. We've now passed the 1/3rd mark of the snow season.

Latter half of the week looks like we'll have a few inches. But you know the drill, inch or two of fluff here or there, peaks of sunshine in between. Yawn.

The band died as quickly as it fired up. About the same out here in Chagrin. No snow at CLE as usual.

I'd like to cash in on a good snow event while the sun is still low. Late winter storms just aren't the same when the sun is higher and immediately begins melting.

I'm a little more optimistic for the end of the week. Some places should easily see a foot + over the 3 day period. The short waves moving through will be good and bad for snow. They will shift winds (and bands) but temporarily enhance the snow over a larger area. Time will tell... but I think the entire northcoast has an opportunity to see decent snow.

[dilly84]

You're a trip dilly...lol. You've got winter canceled at the beginning of Jan. Isn't that like canceling summer on the 4th of July?

This is for central Ohio. Show me a reason to believe otherwise.. Hope I'm wrong, but I've seen this before.

[Trent]

The band died as quickly as it fired up. About the same out here in Chagrin. No snow at CLE as usual.

I'd like to cash in on a good snow event while the sun is still low. Late winter storms just aren't the same when the sun is higher and immediately begins melting.

I'm a little more optimistic for the end of the week. Some places should easily see a foot + over the 3 day period. The short waves moving through will be good and bad for snow. They will shift winds (and bands) but temporarily enhance the snow over a larger area. Time will tell... but I think the entire northcoast has an opportunity to see decent snow.

This event seems pretty typical for NE Ohio. If you browse the records at CLE, every winter is dotted with the 3-5 day stretch of light accumulating snows. It should be quite easy to cut into the deficit, however I would not be surprised if the 5 day total is around 8", but only 3" is on the ground.

The snow today has already disappeared with sunshine and 20s.

[BuckeyeSam]

This is for central Ohio. Show me a reason to believe otherwise.. Hope I'm wrong, but I've seen this before.

I'm not the climate history guy here, but I'm pretty sure the bulk of our seasonal snowfall comes in Jan and Feb. Show me a year where winter ended in early January in central Ohio.

I don't put a lot of faith in any model than 3 days out to accurately predict storm placement. But it does appear that we're staying cold for a while, so that's where my optimism comes from.

[NEOH]

This event seems pretty typical for NE Ohio. If you browse the records at CLE, every winter is dotted with the 3-5 day stretch of light accumulating snows. It should be quite easy to cut into the deficit, however I would not be surprised if the 5 day total is around 8", but only 3" is on the ground.

The snow today has already disappeared with sunshine and 20s.

If we can't get any synoptic snows I'll glady take the LES. This type of set-up generally produces heavy lake enhanced snows... although we don't see it that often.

From CLE:

SEVERAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH A TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH PIECE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. THIS AREA MAY NEED AN ADVISORY STARTING THE SECOND HALF

OF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW DO OCCUR A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF OVER 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HWO.

[Trent]

If we can't get any synoptic snows I'll glady take the LES. This type of set-up generally produces heavy lake enhanced snows... although we don't see it that often.

From CLE:

SEVERAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH A TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH PIECE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. THIS AREA MAY NEED AN ADVISORY STARTING THE SECOND HALF

OF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW DO OCCUR A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF OVER 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HWO.

I'll gladly take the LES as well, as long as strong winds don't send it to Medina or YNG! The way this winter is going, LES is all we're going to get.

I actually prefer LES instead of synoptic snow with regards to intensity, but the unpredictable nature of bands makes tracking in advance impossible. At least here, we still have the element of surprise. Nothing like going to work and leaving with 11" of unforecasted snow.

[Trent]

CLE is pretty bullish tomorrow into tomorrow night. Looks like they are going with 4-7" for Cuyahoga County.

Time to start checking the BUF mesos.

[dilly84]

I'm not the climate history guy here, but I'm pretty sure the bulk of our seasonal snowfall comes in Jan and Feb. Show me a year where winter ended in early January in central Ohio.

I don't put a lot of faith in any model than 3 days out to accurately predict storm placement. But it does appear that we're staying cold for a while, so that's where my optimism comes from.

JBCMH was our climate guy for Ohio, but unfortunately he got tired of the the drama from certain members and left.

[Trent]

Looking at one of the BUF mesos, out to 1am Friday morning. It appears that an east west band through Cuyahoga County develops in the 7pm-1am time frame tomorrow. These models have been pretty shaky in the past, but something to watch.

Hard to believe this was a month ago today :

[cincywxpro]

Looking at one of the BUF mesos, out to 1am Friday morning. It appears that an east west band through Cuyahoga County develops in the 7pm-1am time frame tomorrow. These models have been pretty shaky in the past, but something to watch.

Hard to believe this was a month ago today :

That's great!

[OHweather]

The event Thursday-Saturday doesn't look spectacular, but 72 hours give or take of enhancement should easily drop a foot in favored areas...it only takes 2" every 12 hour period to do that. Right now it looks like a general mediocre lake effect event with marginal to moderate instability and some shear, but inversions will be high with shortwaves moving through to occasionally enhance convergence and moisture. These sinarios do usually add up moderately fast especially in the higher terrain, and the long duration will help inflate totals.

Anyways, the first wave of energy models show coming through will move in right around the Friday AM rush, which may actually lead to a moderate to high impact on the commute...the cold front will come through tomorrow afternoon into the evening, with a period of snow showers along and ahead of it which could drop up to an inch, especially over northern and eastern OH. Behind this initial front, winds will turn WNW with rising inversions and decent synoptic moisture:

This type of wind direction favors a primary band of snow setting up along the lake shore and coming into far northern Lorain, northern Cuyahoga into parts of Lake/Geauga county, and the amount of synoptic moisture and inversions up at around 9k feet supports moderate to occasionally heavy snow where any band sets up.

By morning, both the GFS and NAM show another weak trough rotating through with a further increase in instability/synoptic moisture, along with a 10-20 degree shift in wind direction:

This would shift any band farther inland into Lorain, Cuyahoga and Geauga counties as we head towards dawn Friday and perhaps bring snow into far northern Medina/Summit counties by 12z. With inversions shown at 10-11k on the GFS sounding above (which doesn't do well with lake induced instability due to its poor resolution) along with deep synoptic moisture, this would favor a band of moderate to heavy snow over much of Cuyahoga county and the surrounding areas for rush hour Friday. Note how convergence increases a good deal as this trough moves over the lake, which will help enhance snow and may cause a more widespread snow around rush hour as this trough moves through:

Anyways, seems like a good portion of Cuyahoga county will see a period of moderate to heavy snow Thursday night into Friday, with northern Lorain, northern Medina, northern Summit, Geagua and perhaps Lake county also seeing a period of moderate to heavy snow by Friday morning. A good portion of these areas should see 2-4" of snow by morning Friday, perhaps even lakeshore/downtown areas, with locally higher amounts seeming possible if/where a more primary band develops.

After the trough moves through Friday AM, models show a more W flow which should favor the primary snow belt and again lakeshore/downtown areas until the next piece of energy rotates through, perhaps Saturday AM.

[Trent]

The event Thursday-Saturday doesn't look spectacular, but 72 hours give or take of enhancement should easily drop a foot in favored areas...it only takes 2" every 12 hour period to do that. Right now it looks like a general mediocre lake effect event with marginal to moderate instability and some shear, but inversions will be high with shortwaves moving through to occasionally enhance convergence and moisture. These sinarios do usually add up moderately fast especially in the higher terrain, and the long duration will help inflate totals.

Anyways, the first wave of energy models show coming through will move in right around the Friday AM rush, which may actually lead to a moderate to high impact on the commute...the cold front will come through tomorrow afternoon into the evening, with a period of snow showers along and ahead of it which could drop up to an inch, especially over northern and eastern OH. Behind this initial front, winds will turn WNW with rising inversions and decent synoptic moisture:

This type of wind direction favors a primary band of snow setting up along the lake shore and coming into far northern Lorain, northern Cuyahoga into parts of Lake/Geauga county, and the amount of synoptic moisture and inversions up at around 9k feet supports moderate to occasionally heavy snow where any band sets up.

By morning, both the GFS and NAM show another weak trough rotating through with a further increase in instability/synoptic moisture, along with a 10-20 degree shift in wind direction:

This would shift any band farther inland into Lorain, Cuyahoga and Geauga counties as we head towards dawn Friday and perhaps bring snow into far northern Medina/Summit counties by 12z. With inversions shown at 10-11k on the GFS sounding above (which doesn't do well with lake induced instability due to its poor resolution) along with deep synoptic moisture, this would favor a band of moderate to heavy snow over much of Cuyahoga county and the surrounding areas for rush hour Friday. Note how convergence increases a good deal as this trough moves over the lake, which will help enhance snow and may cause a more widespread snow around rush hour as this trough moves through:

Anyways, seems like a good portion of Cuyahoga county will see a period of moderate to heavy snow Thursday night into Friday, with northern Lorain, northern Medina, northern Summit, Geagua and perhaps Lake county also seeing a period of moderate to heavy snow by Friday morning. A good portion of these areas should see 2-4" of snow by morning Friday, perhaps even lakeshore/downtown areas, with locally higher amounts seeming possible if/where a more primary band develops.

After the trough moves through Friday AM, models show a more W flow which should favor the primary snow belt and again lakeshore/downtown areas until the next piece of energy rotates through, perhaps Saturday AM.

Great analysis!

[OHweather]

Great analysis!

Thanks. Hopefully with a lighter flow and more westerly wind you'll see more snow down there than you have with these other events (excluding that work-day fiasco)

[dilly84]

Thanks. Hopefully with a lighter flow and more westerly wind you'll see more snow down there than you have with these other events (excluding that work-day fiasco)

Are u a met?

[OHweather]

Are u a met?

I'm 18 so no not yet maybe not ever haven't made that decision yet.

[NEOH]

JBCMH was our climate guy for Ohio, but unfortunately he got tired of the the drama from certain members and left.

Sorry to hear he is gone. It's really a shame that this board is all some of the posters have in their lives, and the high school type cliques that exist in certain threads. Hopefully he comes back.

[NEOH]

The event Thursday-Saturday doesn't look spectacular, but 72 hours give or take of enhancement should easily drop a foot in favored areas...it only takes 2" every 12 hour period to do that. Right now it looks like a general mediocre lake effect event with marginal to moderate instability and some shear, but inversions will be high with shortwaves moving through to occasionally enhance convergence and moisture. These sinarios do usually add up moderately fast especially in the higher terrain, and the long duration will help inflate totals.

Anyways, the first wave of energy models show coming through will move in right around the Friday AM rush, which may actually lead to a moderate to high impact on the commute...the cold front will come through tomorrow afternoon into the evening, with a period of snow showers along and ahead of it which could drop up to an inch, especially over northern and eastern OH. Behind this initial front, winds will turn WNW with rising inversions and decent synoptic moisture:

This type of wind direction favors a primary band of snow setting up along the lake shore and coming into far northern Lorain, northern Cuyahoga into parts of Lake/Geauga county, and the amount of synoptic moisture and inversions up at around 9k feet supports moderate to occasionally heavy snow where any band sets up.

By morning, both the GFS and NAM show another weak trough rotating through with a further increase in instability/synoptic moisture, along with a 10-20 degree shift in wind direction:

This would shift any band farther inland into Lorain, Cuyahoga and Geauga counties as we head towards dawn Friday and perhaps bring snow into far northern Medina/Summit counties by 12z. With inversions shown at 10-11k on the GFS sounding above (which doesn't do well with lake induced instability due to its poor resolution) along with deep synoptic moisture, this would favor a band of moderate to heavy snow over much of Cuyahoga county and the surrounding areas for rush hour Friday. Note how convergence increases a good deal as this trough moves over the lake, which will help enhance snow and may cause a more widespread snow around rush hour as this trough moves through:

Anyways, seems like a good portion of Cuyahoga county will see a period of moderate to heavy snow Thursday night into Friday, with northern Lorain, northern Medina, northern Summit, Geagua and perhaps Lake county also seeing a period of moderate to heavy snow by Friday morning. A good portion of these areas should see 2-4" of snow by morning Friday, perhaps even lakeshore/downtown areas, with locally higher amounts seeming possible if/where a more primary band develops.

After the trough moves through Friday AM, models show a more W flow which should favor the primary snow belt and again lakeshore/downtown areas until the next piece of energy rotates through, perhaps Saturday AM.

Nice work. I'm about as confident as I've been all season that this will be the most widespread snow of the season.... primarily due to the shifting winds. Which will also limit snowfall totals. A spread the wealth type event. I'm sure the models will not handle the shortwaves properly so I am putting very little stock on them as to where the bands set up.

Lake effect can be so fickle. But the pro's definitely outweigh the con's with this event. Shear will be the most limiting factor... the flow will never really become well aligned until the ULL moves east. Ideally it would be nice for the ULL to stay to the N or NE of OH instead of overhead or NW of here. Other than that we will have a deep, moist cyclonic flow for several days and more than sufficient 850's. The flow looks great for including the western basin in the mix... but I wonder how much that will help given the extensive ice cover.

I'll go out on a limb and say the jackpot areas see 2'+ when this finally winds down. These events always hold on longer than expected.

[OHweather]

Nice work. I'm about as confident as I've been all season that this will be the most widespread snow of the season.... primarily due to the shifting winds. Which will also limit snowfall totals. A spread the wealth type event. I'm sure the models will not handle the shortwaves properly so I am putting very little stock on them as to where the bands set up.

Lake effect can be so fickle. But the pro's definitely outweigh the con's with this event. Shear will be the most limiting factor... the flow will never really become well aligned until the ULL moves east. Ideally it would be nice for the ULL to stay to the N or NE of OH instead of overhead or NW of here. Other than that we will have a deep, moist cyclonic flow for several days and more than sufficient 850's. The flow looks great for including the western basin in the mix... but I wonder how much that will help given the extensive ice cover.

I'll go out on a limb and say the jackpot areas see 2'+ when this finally winds down. These events always hold on longer than expected.

I tend to agree with that. If we see a band setup over one area for an extended period of time, which may have some trouble occuring due to some shear and shifting winds we could see some local areas approaching 2'.

Right now all the models agree with some sort of a trough coming through Friday morning which should mean a fairly widespread period of snow overnight Thursday into Friday. After that, who knows but another one or two could come through into the weekend spreading the snow out more, we'll have to see when.

I agree that things do set up decently for lake effect, although with shifting winds and some shear I am a bit apprehensive to call for extreme amounts at this point. CLE will probably need advisories and perhaps even warnings at some point soon here as thier AFD mentioned.

[weatherman5416]

I tend to agree with that. If we see a band setup over one area for an extended period of time, which may have some trouble occuring due to some shear and shifting winds we could see some local areas approaching 2'.

Right now all the models agree with some sort of a trough coming through Friday morning which should mean a fairly widespread period of snow overnight Thursday into Friday. After that, who knows but another one or two could come through into the weekend spreading the snow out more, we'll have to see when.

I agree that things do set up decently for lake effect, although with shifting winds and some shear I am a bit apprehensive to call for extreme amounts at this point. CLE will probably need advisories and perhaps even warnings at some point soon here as thier AFD mentioned.

With this being a more widespread event, what is the criteria needed for a winter weather advisory for snow outside of the snowbelt? Is it 4 inches in 12 hours?

[dilly84]

I'm 18 so no not yet maybe not ever haven't made that decision yet.

Wow, pretty damn good analysis for your age, where did you learn all you know?

[Trent]

I tend to agree with that. If we see a band setup over one area for an extended period of time, which may have some trouble occuring due to some shear and shifting winds we could see some local areas approaching 2'.

Right now all the models agree with some sort of a trough coming through Friday morning which should mean a fairly widespread period of snow overnight Thursday into Friday. After that, who knows but another one or two could come through into the weekend spreading the snow out more, we'll have to see when.

I agree that things do set up decently for lake effect, although with shifting winds and some shear I am a bit apprehensive to call for extreme amounts at this point. CLE will probably need advisories and perhaps even warnings at some point soon here as thier AFD mentioned.

As we all know with lake effect in greater Cleveland, the surprise events that deposit over 10" when much less was forecast happens almost every year. I'm sure you remember the event about a year ago to the date (it was a Sunday) where a good 18 inches or so fell in Solon/Chagrin. February 4th, 2009 also comes to mind and of course a month ago.

I will remain cautiously optimistic, especially at the shore, but the set-up does look pretty good here too.

The CLE WRF from early today also hinted at the band developing east west through Cuyahoga County tomorrow evening/tonight, in addition to some hints from the the BUF WRF. I'm anxious to see the output at 11 pm from the BUF meso models as this will be through 7 am Friday, giving us a good hint of any band that develops overnight.

[OHweather]

With this being a more widespread event, what is the criteria needed for a winter weather advisory for snow outside of the snowbelt? Is it 4 inches in 12 hours?

4" in 12 hours or 6" in 24. I have a feeling Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula counties will almost certainly need at least an advisory. Outside of the Snow Belt the troughs may spread 1-3 or 2-4" type amounts with each passage for the counties surrounding the Snow Belt, which is marginal at best for an advisory.

It will be interesting as always to see what CLE does with this one.

Wow, pretty damn good analysis for your age, where did you learn all you know?

Thanks. I somehow picked up a good bit of knowledge reading CLE's (ok BUF's too) AFD's and have read these forums for a while but have only posted occasionally.

As we all know with lake effect in greater Cleveland, the surprise events that deposit over 10" when much less was forecast happens almost every year. I'm sure you remember the event about a year ago to the date (it was a Sunday) where a good 18 inches or so fell in Solon/Chagrin. February 4th, 2009 also comes to mind and of course a month ago.

I will remain cautiously optimistic, especially at the shore, but the set-up does look pretty good here too.

The CLE WRF from early today also hinted at the band developing east west through Cuyahoga County tomorrow evening/tonight, in addition to some hints from the the BUF WRF. I'm anxious to see the output at 11 pm from the BUF meso models as this will be through 7 am Friday, giving us a good hint of any band that develops overnight.

I definitely agree. I do remember that event right after the new year last year, over 36" storm total here over like 5 days. That storm shouldn't have been under forecast, but CLE was debaiting if sky high inversions and deep synoptic moisture with a Huron connection would be trumped by marginal to moderate lake-850mb delta-t's and was caught almost napping.

I agree with cautious optimism, although this event is coming fast and any headlines will probably be out in 6 hours or less with the morning AFD, so it wil be interesting to see what CLE does. The 0z WRF ran on e-wall is already out, and does show an east west band attempting to form over Cuyahoga county tomorrow night, but shows one factor that may keep amounts from getting too out of hand, shifting winds and transient bands, which has been brought up:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_0z/jloop.html

[BowMeHunter]

Looks like I am sticking with my winter cancel. LOL. Shows a storm then crushes it the next day. Too much blocking. Just a depressing winter. I say bring on spring. This winter blows.

Its just getting in Central Ohio's winter wheelhouse Blocking is good I would think for you guys especially in a decent Nina. If you guys had a lot of lakes to ice fish on I would defineitely take my chances down there than up here the rest of the winter..

[dilly84]

Its just getting in Central Ohio's winter wheelhouse Blocking is good I would think for you guys especially in a decent Nina. If you guys had a lot of lakes to ice fish on I would defineitely take my chances down there than up here the rest of the winter..

Yea unfortunately the blocking is what is killing us. Biggest storm for me so far is 2.3" lol. And then a couple 1" storms, so nothing to write home about. Can't complain too much though considering since March 2008, the winters have been rocking. Hell had 30"of snow on the ground last year, most I can remember on the ground in a long time, maybe ever. Fave storm for me is PD2 though. Set records in 08, but Presidents day storm just hammered all day long. Which typically our major snows fall at night. I just remember there being like 20" on the main highways cause the plow trucks just gave up. Lol. Only time I ever seen that.. Stuff like that is rare here with the apps so close, aside clippers it takes nearly a perfect setup to get a really good synoptic snow in central Ohio. Typically we either are too far east and we get the WTOD, or we are too far west and we stay cold and dry. Apps runners are rare, but 75% of the time that's what we have to have to get hammered.

Hasn't been a true blizzard in central Ohio since I can remember. High winds and heavy snow have been forecast at times, but the winds never come. Oh well. Lol.

[Trent]

I'm getting a bit worried this might be a NW flow event where everything gets pushed inland. Looked good on the models last night, but some of the 6z runs taketh away.

CLE is calling for nothing at the shore, look at this forecast, it's almost comical how the wording and snowfall don't make sense:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Today: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. South wind 10 to 16 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 21. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 24. West wind between 14 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.