Trent Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Finally a good look at ice cover on the lake. Western basin is mostly ice covered, but very thin. There is some patchy pack ice in the central basin but a lot more open water than I was expecting. Should melt some as well the next few days. I'm surprised as well! There's definitely an ebb and flow with ice cover on a daily basis. There was half as much ice this morning compared to yesterday morning. I do know that a lot of the water is 33 degrees though. Here's to being optimistic for further enhancement this winter! It will be nice to leave snowless Cleveland for snowy Newark tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Wow, boring weather sucks, This thread is dead lol. Nothing too impressive to watch for at least 10 days, unless you consider rain impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Getting a good bit of Zr tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Boring is an understatement. We will be in the same pattern we were in during most of December, just less cold! The ECMWF ENS and GENS agree on almost every detail for the next 10 days. Aside from really weak energy in the northern stream and maybe some lake effect in the primary snowbelt, I don't see anything. It will be nice to see the sun now and then. I think there are still about 6" of snow on the ground here...everything is so salty and dirty I'm hoping the mild rain will wash it all away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Boring is an understatement. We will be in the same pattern we were in during most of December, just less cold! The ECMWF ENS and GENS agree on almost every detail for the next 10 days. Aside from really weak energy in the northern stream and maybe some lake effect in the primary snowbelt, I don't see anything. It will be nice to see the sun now and then. I think there are still about 6" of snow on the ground here...everything is so salty and dirty I'm hoping the mild rain will wash it all away. CF - Do you do any LR forecasting? What are your thoughts about the returning block the models are showing? If the blocking is weaker this time around, wouldn't that would be good for synoptic systems in the upper OV and lower lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Boring is an understatement. We will be in the same pattern we were in during most of December, just less cold! The ECMWF ENS and GENS agree on almost every detail for the next 10 days. Aside from really weak energy in the northern stream and maybe some lake effect in the primary snowbelt, I don't see anything. It will be nice to see the sun now and then. I think there are still about 6" of snow on the ground here...everything is so salty and dirty I'm hoping the mild rain will wash it all away. At least there was threats to track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The warmth never underperforms. Made it up to 43 today with almost no sun and snowcover. Probably lost 4 inches or so of snowcover. Amazing how easily it warms at this latitude even with a low sun angle. Looks like its raining all the way up in the UP of MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 CF - Do you do any LR forecasting? What are your thoughts about the returning block the models are showing? If the blocking is weaker this time around, wouldn't that would be good for synoptic systems in the upper OV and lower lakes. I don't. Don Sutherland posted a great write up (as usual) here: http://www.americanw...mewhat-limited/ His A.O. work was even mentioned in a recent PHI AFD. Perhaps something in the northern stream will surprise us next week? I can't really see much more happening other than that. Some of the operational ECMWF runs have been trying to develop a storm along the coast, but the ensembles really haven't picked up on that so the confidence appears low. Next week (starting January 7th-ish) another deep low will get stuck near the Canadian Maritimes, so more arctic lake enhanced gloom looks likely. One difference I do see with this pattern is towards January 9th an upper level ridge develops around 140°W longitude, that can be a signal of amplification downstream along with a arctic outbreak, but until we get out from under the semi-permanent deep low any upper level pattern change doesn't seem to do much. In the meantime, the warm air has been impressive. I was near Akron-Canton yesterday and it was in the mid 50s with sunshine during part of the afternoon. How beautiful and mild it felt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I don't. Don Sutherland posted a great write up (as usual) here: http://www.americanw...mewhat-limited/ His A.O. work was even mentioned in a recent PHI AFD. Perhaps something in the northern stream will surprise us next week? I can't really see much more happening other than that. Some of the operational ECMWF runs have been trying to develop a storm along the coast, but the ensembles really haven't picked up on that so the confidence appears low. Next week (starting January 7th-ish) another deep low will get stuck near the Canadian Maritimes, so more arctic lake enhanced gloom looks likely. One difference I do see with this pattern is towards January 9th an upper level ridge develops around 140°W longitude, that can be a signal of amplification downstream along with a arctic outbreak, but until we get out from under the semi-permanent deep low any upper level pattern change doesn't seem to do much. In the meantime, the warm air has been impressive. I was near Akron-Canton yesterday and it was in the mid 50s with sunshine during part of the afternoon. How beautiful and mild it felt! The warmth has been impressive the past few days. No snow left here with just a few piles remaining. 12z GFS sure looked interesting. That would be a quite a lake enhancement event should it verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year! Looks like we finally have something to keep an eye on at the end of the week with a frontal passage on Thurs/Fri. Hopefully we can whiten the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 WOW!!! What a boring weather pattern we are in..give me snow or give me spring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Happy New Year! Looks like we finally have something to keep an eye on at the end of the week with a frontal passage on Thurs/Fri. Hopefully we can whiten the ground! Looks like the threat is quickly going away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincywxpro Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00Z GFS is showing some potential for a quick snow maker to move through the Ohio Valley on Friday, which could bring some accumulations to the area. Something that needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 00Z GFS is showing some potential for a quick snow maker to move through the Ohio Valley on Friday, which could bring some accumulations to the area. Something that needs to be watched. I noticed it too on the last few runs. Looks like a southern feature throws a little moisture up our way on Thu and then a clipper rotates through on Fri. Might be good for a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincywxpro Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Latest GFS is keeping the bulk of the precip from Columbus and points north with the Thurs night/ Friday system. The Euro isn't as aggressive with the amount of moisture at all. At least it's something to talk about once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Latest GFS is keeping the bulk of the precip from Columbus and points north with the Thurs night/ Friday system. The Euro isn't as aggressive with the amount of moisture at all. At least it's something to talk about once again. meh, never too thrilled with clipper precip when the track of the slp is so far north of us. On another note, it's amazing how january is looking so cold now in the east....lots of egg on the faces of mets who were riding nina climo hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincywxpro Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 meh, never too thrilled with clipper precip when the track of the slp is so far north of us. On another note, it's amazing how january is looking so cold now in the east....lots of egg on the faces of mets who were riding nina climo hard. I have to admit, I personally thought since Cincinnati experienced the 8th coldest December on record, that we would see a decent warming trend come January and February. This was reminding me of the Winter of 1989-90 in the Ohio Valley. In December, 1989, Cincinnati experienced its coldest December on record, followed by the 11th warmest January on record, which was then followed by the 14th warmest February on record. Though looking at the cold surges wanting to move into the area I have been proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I have to admit, I personally thought since Cincinnati experienced the 8th coldest December on record, that we would see a decent warming trend come January and February. This was reminding me of the Winter of 1989-90 in the Ohio Valley. In December, 1989, Cincinnati experienced its coldest December on record, followed by the 11th warmest January on record, which was then followed by the 14th warmest February on record. Though looking at the cold surges wanting to move into the area I have been proven wrong. i think many of us thought the same thing...including myself. I bought into the idea of a January turnaround lock stock and barrel. Seems like everything is up in the air now as to what the winter holds from here on out. The one good thing about the cold extending into January is the idea that the rubberband eventually has to 'break'. And when it does, we might finally enjoy an early sping here in the ov for the first time in awhile. Screw march snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 i think many of us thought the same thing...including myself. I bought into the idea of a January turnaround lock stock and barrel. Seems like everything is up in the air now as to what the winter holds from here on out. The one good thing about the cold extending into January is the idea that the rubberband eventually has to 'break'. And when it does, we might finally enjoy an early sping here in the ov for the first time in awhile. Screw march snows. Wait, wasn't that last winter? Snowless March and mid 80s first weekend of April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Wait, wasn't that last winter? Snowless March and mid 80s first weekend of April? march was snowless....but wasn't it cold and dry? maybe i'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 march was snowless....but wasn't it cold and dry? maybe i'm wrong March was on the warm side. CMH was +2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincywxpro Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 CVG was +1.7° in March with snowfall officially, however there were 2-3" snow amounts in the Cincinnati area on the night of the 25th into the morning of the 26th. That took place mainly in our northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 March was on the warm side. CMH was +2.2 maybe it's perception. I know the heavy snow on the ground in feb here lasted most of the month and then I don't really recall a sudden warm up in march. Winter seemed to drag on. I wonder if even though we ended up above normal temp-wise, it was as a result of some very warm short spirts that month....i do recall some really cold temps in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 maybe it's perception. I know the heavy snow on the ground in feb here lasted most of the month and then I don't really recall a sudden warm up in march. Winter seemed to drag on. I wonder if even though we ended up above normal temp-wise, it was as a result of some very warm short spirts that month....i do recall some really cold temps in march. All I remember is month after month of above normal weather. December 2010 was the first below normal month at Cleveland since July 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincywxpro Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Down here in Cincy, there wasn't a single month that was just normal in any category. Either we were well above normal in temps or well below normal. Either we were in the top 5 for wettest months or the top 10 for driest months, or we were in the top 5 for snowfall. Oh yea and we dealt with a severe to extreme drought down here until the last week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 All I remember is month after month of above normal weather. December 2010 was the first below normal month at Cleveland since July 2009. well further sw here in cmh area, we cashed out on synoptic snow last season. A lot of those eastcoast blockbusters threw lov'n back our way too (close to 30" in the first 3 weeks of feb). That was one of the longest duration deep snowcover periods i ever recall here. It took awhile for it to finally disappear in March...and i know we had some late march cold outbreaks as well. Maybe that's why it seemed like it took forever for spring to lock in here last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 All I remember is month after month of above normal weather. December 2010 was the first below normal month at Cleveland since July 2009. CLE was in a warm bubble it has not been warm month after month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 maybe it's perception. I know the heavy snow on the ground in feb here lasted most of the month and then I don't really recall a sudden warm up in march. Winter seemed to drag on. I wonder if even though we ended up above normal temp-wise, it was as a result of some very warm short spirts that month....i do recall some really cold temps in march. well further sw here in cmh area, we cashed out on synoptic snow last season. A lot of those eastcoast blockbusters threw lov'n back our way too (close to 30" in the first 3 weeks of feb). That was one of the longest duration deep snowcover periods i ever recall here. It took awhile for it to finally disappear in March...and i know we had some late march cold outbreaks as well. Maybe that's why it seemed like it took forever for spring to lock in here last year. 000 CXUS51 KILN 010555 CF6CMH PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: COLUMBUS OH MONTH: MARCH YEAR: 2010 LATITUDE: 40 0 N LONGITUDE: 82 53 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 38 30 34 -3 31 0 T T 3 5.0 12 340 M M 9 18 15 330 2 34 24 29 -8 36 0 T T 2 6.6 13 360 M M 10 1 18 30 3 34 29 32 -5 33 0 T T 1 10.1 16 340 M M 10 21 10 4 39 23 31 -7 34 0 0.00 0.0 1 8.1 18 360 M M 3 22 360 5 39 21 30 -8 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.2 15 360 M M 2 12 17 340 6 43 20 32 -7 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.5 13 30 M M 0 1 15 20 7 48 20 34 -5 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.0 12 240 M M 3 18 14 250 8 55 34 45 6 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 10 140 M M 4 18 14 130 9 62 31 47 7 18 0 T 0.0 0 5.0 12 120 M M 5 15 120 10 64 44 54 14 11 0 0.04 0.0 0 6.4 13 150 M M 7 1 17 170 11 68 42 55 15 10 0 0.05 0.0 0 5.6 10 140 M M 9 23 170 12 70 49 60 19 5 0 0.16 0.0 0 9.4 24 220 M M 9 138 35 100 13 52 43 48 7 17 0 0.74 0.0 0 7.7 16 220 M M 10 1 22 70 14 48 39 44 3 21 0 0.06 0.0 0 6.5 16 350 M M 10 1 20 350 15 45 38 42 0 23 0 T 0.0 0 12.4 21 340 M M 10 25 350 16 60 40 50 8 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.2 15 10 M M 5 21 10 17 63 33 48 6 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.4 9 360 M M 3 12 10 18 65 33 49 6 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.7 18 280 M M 3 23 290 19 66 37 52 9 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.9 21 250 M M 5 25 240 20 69 40 55 11 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.6 18 220 M M 6 28 300 21 72 41 57 13 8 0 0.01 0.0 0 7.1 21 20 M M 9 25 30 22 49 37 43 -1 22 0 0.49 0.0 0 8.1 17 330 M M 10 1 23 330 23 49 37 43 -1 22 0 T 0.0 0 8.8 21 330 M M 8 1 25 320 24 61 32 47 2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.6 9 250 M M 6 18 15 230 25 58 31 45 0 20 0 0.70 0.2 0 8.9 22 10 M M 10 14 29 20 26 41 29 35 -10 30 0 0.05 0.5 1 12.5 22 20 M M 4 1 33 30 27 58 26 42 -4 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 17 140 M M 7 25 140 28 57 43 50 4 15 0 0.44 0.0 0 11.3 20 180 M M 9 1 28 180 29 50 41 46 0 19 0 0.01 0.0 0 10.9 18 360 M M 10 1 23 10 30 57 34 46 -1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 12 360 M M 2 18 35 320 31 71 34 53 6 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.8 16 220 M M 4 22 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 CLE was in a warm bubble it has not been warm month after month. I'm pretty sure it was warm in CLE from March through this past December... at least it seemed that way. Winter ended quickly as far as I remember in February. OHSnow is OCD about CLE weather even though he doesn't live around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 I'm pretty sure it was warm in CLE from March through this past December... at least it seemed that way. Winter ended quickly as far as I remember in February. OHSnow is OCD about CLE weather even though he doesn't live around here. OHSnow is Ytterbium right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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