Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[Trent]

Just squeaked by with a white Christmas here. I'm losing faith in the lake effect for today into tomorrow, doesn't look all that impressive.

[dilly84]

Definitely squeeked by here. like I said got an inch within a couple hours of snow last night before it stopped. At least we're going to be out of this pattern and will now have more of a chance to get synoptic snows.

[Chagrin Falls]

Looks like CMH received 0.1". I'm down near PMH where there was maybe 0.2" or so, but it is already beginning to melt. The ensembles are trending higher for temperatures toward the New Year. It now looks possible to get 50 degrees or better at CLE.

Glad I'm not responsible for East Coast forecasting. I think this storm is definitely going to change how a lot of meteorologists view operational runs and ensembles. I don't know why the ECMWF did what it did. Perhaps it is because of the upper-air wavelength change and the compactness of the southern jet disturbance? In any event, the old adage seems to hold true...use the ECMWF for Days 4 or more, use the GFS from 0-72 hours. Hopefully the NCEP folks will be able to give some feedback on the uncertainty that was displayed along the East Coast.

[NEOH]

Merry Christmas to all.

Definitely a white christmas here. Didn't get much snow overnight... just a coating. Still alot of snow in the ground though. Should pick up a few inches tonight into tomorrow. Then goodbye snow next week.

[Steve]

Definitely squeeked by here. like I said got an inch within a couple hours of snow last night before it stopped. At least we're going to be out of this pattern and will now have more of a chance to get synoptic snows.

We got a dusting last night..But thats ok..it just freshened up the bit of snow we had on the ground..So a white christmas it is..Looks nice!!

[dilly84]

We got a dusting last night..But thats ok..it just freshened up the bit of snow we had on the ground..So a white christmas it is..Looks nice!!

Got lucky here. Just happened to get into a heavier band right over me, big flakes. gave exactly an inch. Already melting. Ya want snow watch TWC. Looks like the EC is going to get their blizzard.

[wxdudemike]

Merry Christmas! Got about half an inch here and alreaday melting way...Oh well, still had about 4 inches or so before so it's a solid white Christmas!

[vespasian70]

Merry Christmas to everyone, glad to see we all got a white one.

[Trent]

I wonder if that's a typo for the snow depth. I know the far west side has been shafted with snow for quite a bit and most of the lawns were showing grass. Would be absolutely hilarious if KCLE was the only place in the midwest to not officially have a white Christmas.

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
514 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010


...................................

...THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 25 2010...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2010


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
               VALUE   (LST)  VALUE   	VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                 NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
 MAXIMUM     	29    433 AM  66    1982  34 	-5   	46
 MINIMUM     	27    355 PM -10    1983  22      5   	37
 AVERAGE     	28                        28      0   	42

PRECIPITATION (IN)
 TODAY            T                     	0.09  -0.09 	0.31
 MONTH TO DATE    1.31                      2.60  -1.29 	2.22
 SINCE DEC 1      1.31                      2.60  -1.29 	2.22
 SINCE JAN 1 	35.37                 	38.17  -2.80    35.27

SNOWFALL (IN)
 TODAY            0.0                   	0.5   -0.5      0.0
 MONTH TO DATE   12.6                      10.1    2.5      1.7
 SINCE DEC 1 	12.6                      10.1    2.5      1.7
 SINCE JUL 1 	12.6                      15.6   -3.0      2.9
 SNOW DEPTH   	0 

[Chagrin Falls]

Must be a typo. The 00Z/26th observation shows 1 inch of snow on the ground with a whopping trace of new snow from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m.

KCLE 252351Z 36009KT 9SM -SN BKN017 OVC023 M03/M07 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP196 8/5// 931000 4/001 P0000 60000 T10331067 11022 21033 58003 $

[Trent]

Must be a typo. The 00Z/26th observation shows 1 inch of snow on the ground with a whopping trace of new snow from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m.

KCLE 252351Z 36009KT 9SM -SN BKN017 OVC023 M03/M07 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP196 8/5// 931000 4/001 P0000 60000 T10331067 11022 21033 58003 $

It could probably go either way. Looking at a lot of spots around here, it's either bare grass, a trace, or an inch of snow. An afternoon in the upper 30s will wipe this fluff away.

With the LES just not wanting to fire up, I'm having my doubts for even an inch. Maybe tomorrow, the dynamics will be better. The sad thing is that realistically, there aren't many opportunities for snow for the next week or two. Sad to have wasted such a negative temperature departure without a snowstorm.

[OHSnow]

It could probably go either way. Looking at a lot of spots around here, it's either bare grass, a trace, or an inch of snow. An afternoon in the upper 30s will wipe this fluff away.

With the LES just not wanting to fire up, I'm having my doubts for even an inch. Maybe tomorrow, the dynamics will be better. The sad thing is that realistically, there aren't many opportunities for snow for the next week or two. Sad to have wasted such a negative temperature departure without a snowstorm.

That wasn't the only oddity I noticed today. I'm guessing they were probably just short staffed today with the holiday. YNG reported .02" in the rain gauge, but no snow at the 5 PM observation. There was about a half inch of new snow in the Youngstown area today and I'm sure the airport had at least as much so it should probably be over 50" for the month now. Hopefully, the NWS notices the omission and corrects it.

[Trent]

That wasn't the only oddity I noticed today. I'm guessing they were probably just short staffed today with the holiday. YNG reported .02" in the rain gauge, but no snow at the 5 PM observation. There was about a half inch of new snow in the Youngstown area today and I'm sure the airport had at least as much so it should probably be over 50" for the month now. Hopefully, the NWS notices the omission and corrects it.

That's crazy to think they've had that much. Assuming it doesn't snow at CLE for the rest of the month (big IF, depending if LES develops tomorrow) December will actually be below normal for snowfall.

Suburbs such as Rocky River, Westlake, and Avon are probably at 6 or 7 inches for the season. Amazing contrast in Cuyahoga County.

[Chagrin Falls]

The Greenland block looks like it will return, so I'm thinking we'll be back in the cold pattern before long. Back to arctic cyclonic gloom...

[dilly84]

The Greenland block looks like it will return, so I'm thinking we'll be back in the cold pattern before long. Back to arctic cyclonic gloom...

Definitely going to have a brief warm-up however I dont think it will be quite as warm as a lot of the models are showing. My guess would be low 40's I dont think we will hit 50 like a lot of afd's are suggesting. I know one thing. It is cold out today. BRRRR

[NEOH]

The Greenland block looks like it will return, so I'm thinking we'll be back in the cold pattern before long. Back to arctic cyclonic gloom...

Glad the warmth will be short lived. Are you thinking the pattern will be similar to what we've had in December? Despite it being cold, it really isn't a great pattern for snow storms -- in our area at least.

[Trent]

Do we even have a snowstorm threat on the horizon?

The lackluster LES event is telling the tale for January, a brief warmup will do nothing for lake temps. The winds have kept most of the lake ice free outside of the western basin, but exacerbate lowering temps, one arctic blast will do a number overnight.

CLE still has 50" inches to go yet this winter, and I'm scratching my head as to how that's going to happen.

[NEOH]

Do we even have a snowstorm threat on the horizon?

The lackluster LES event is telling the tale for January, a brief warmup will do nothing for lake temps. The winds have kept most of the lake ice free outside of the western basin, but exacerbate lowering temps, one arctic blast will do a number overnight.

CLE still has 50" inches to go yet this winter, and I'm scratching my head as to how that's going to happen.

I don't see anything on the horizon Trent. Only looking like a 3 day "warm" up. I've been lucky to have snowcover most of the month. One good arctic shot would probably shut off the lake. If we are going to see significant snow it's going to have to be synoptic.

The snowfall gradient across the lakeshore counties is amazing. Some places in lake county have only seen as much snow as the west side burbs.

Doubtful that CLE will get to average snowfall this year. Stranger things have happened... but if the extreme blocking comes back its over. Hopefully we'll see one major storm this year. Storms are great in Dec, Jan and early Feb.... not so much in late winter.

[Trent]

I don't see anything on the horizon Trent. Only looking like a 3 day "warm" up. I've been lucky to have snowcover most of the month. One good arctic shot would probably shut off the lake. If we are going to see significant snow it's going to have to be synoptic.

The snowfall gradient across the lakeshore counties is amazing. Some places in lake county have only seen as much snow as the west side burbs.

Doubtful that CLE will get to average snowfall this year. Stranger things have happened... but if the extreme blocking comes back its over. Hopefully we'll see one major storm this year. Storms are great in Dec, Jan and early Feb.... not so much in late winter.

I'm thankful for the downtown band, which grazed central Lakewood coast and points east, otherwise it would be a disaster here. Im actually headed to EWR on Thursday, if only that storm could have held off, at least i'll see some decent snow on the ground.

A little climo. There have been 5 Decembers at CLE with below average temps and normal to below normal snowfall. A bit telling how unusual this cold was with regards to snow. Of those winters 2 were slightly below normal with snow ~50", 2 were disasters ~39", and 1 had 77.2". The caveat to that is that those numbers include snowfall in Oct and Nov. That 77.2" was 1950-1951, need I say more?

The result when you look at those winters and only snow from January 1st onward? All had below normal snowfall the rest of the year. Those winters averaged just 34.4 from January onward.

Moral of the story, a negative temp departure month in winter is the month that should boost a seasonal total, if it comes in normal to below for snow, it just kills the chances for the rest of winter.

Not to say we wont get any good storms, but for CLE to manage 50" the rest of winter seems downright impossible.

[NEOH]

I'm thankful for the downtown band, which grazed central Lakewood coast and points east, otherwise it would be a disaster here. Im actually headed to EWR on Thursday, if only that storm could have held off, at least i'll see some decent snow on the ground.

A little climo. There have been 5 Decembers at CLE with below average temps and normal to below normal snowfall. A bit telling how unusual this cold was with regards to snow. Of those winters 2 were slightly below normal with snow ~50", 2 were disasters ~39", and 1 had 77.2". The caveat to that is that those numbers include snowfall in Oct and Nov. That 77.2" was 1950-1951, need I say more?

The result when you look at those winters and only snow from January 1st onward? All had below normal snowfall the rest of the year. Those winters averaged just 34.4 from January onward.

Moral of the story, a negative temp departure month in winter is the month that should boost a seasonal total, if it comes in normal to below for snow, it just kills the chances for the rest of winter.

Not to say we wont get any good storms, but for CLE to manage 50" the rest of winter seems downright impossible.

The stats do not bode well for the rest of the winter. Really would have been nice to get a storm with all of the cold air we've had. The weenie in me says it's a unique year weatherwise so maybe there is hope. Enjoy the snow in Newark. Hopefully the airports will be back up to speed by then. I've never had an on-time into EWR.

Snow is coming down nicely in Chagrin right now. Looks like moisture is coming in from the North to help seed the clouds. Maybe we'll squeeze out an inch.

[Chagrin Falls]

Do we even have a snowstorm threat on the horizon?

The lackluster LES event is telling the tale for January, a brief warmup will do nothing for lake temps. The winds have kept most of the lake ice free outside of the western basin, but exacerbate lowering temps, one arctic blast will do a number overnight.

CLE still has 50" inches to go yet this winter, and I'm scratching my head as to how that's going to happen.

I don't see anything, nada, nope. The ECMWFENS and GENS are in good agreement with passing the cold front on the 1st, I guess the ECMWF is a bit quicker with it. In any event, in response to the Greenland block/ridge developing a polar vortex develops north/northeast of us and remains stationary through Day 10. However, this time the post-frontal air is modified Pacific, so it will be dry (result of downsloping as it moved lee of the Rockies) and not as cold. The coldest reasonable 850 temps look about -10°C with a much more westerly flow than we've had this month. There may be some energy rotating around the polar vortex, but the ensembles aren't picking up anything at this point...that would be our only chance of substantial (any) snow.

I'm not a long-range guy so I don't have any guesses for January. Que Sera.

Near normal and fairly dry...

[Trent]

No doubt all of Ohio will lose its snow pack with at least 48 hours of above freezing temps. We should get a glimpse of Erie today from satellite, from what I can see out the window , appears to be huge chunks of ice mixed with open water.

Should easily rack up a nice snowfall deficit in the short term.

[OHweather]

The ECM was close to phasing and creating a nice storm around the 7th but just missed. If the PV splits/lifts north as much as the 0z ECM shows, this storm could be ours across the OV and eastern Lakes if some phasing can occur. No phasing it's weak and nothing major, or if it phases but the PV does not lift north as much this could be an east coast storm. So we need things to go perfectly:

The 12z GFS for the same time also looks like it just misses phasing and slides one piece of energy east just a little too fast for anything to happen. In addition, the GFS would probably keep any storm supressed due to the displaced nature of the PV, but the GFS is known to be too agressive in amplifying the polar branch. The GFS has more energy cut-off over the southwest, but does not bring it east in time for anything to happen:

Both models do agree on a -NAO and displaced polar vortex with some energy coming out of the southwestern US though, so while there is a lot that can go wrong and prevent a storm from affecting the Midwest region in a significant way, this could be something subtle to watch if we can get some sub-tropical jet energy moving eastward as energy rotates around a displaced polar vortex:

[NEOH]

No doubt all of Ohio will lose its snow pack with at least 48 hours of above freezing temps. We should get a glimpse of Erie today from satellite, from what I can see out the window , appears to be huge chunks of ice mixed with open water.

Should easily rack up a nice snowfall deficit in the short term.

Last year CLE had 6.7" to date. I forgot how snow free last December was. CLE wound up around normal for the season. Goes to show that anything can happen.

We clouded up before I could get a look at the Modis imagery. From what I saw earlier there isn't as much ice as I was expecting. Pretty much confined to the the western basin and south shoreline areas.

[Trent]

Last year CLE had 6.7" to date. I forgot how snow free last December was. CLE wound up around normal for the season. Goes to show that anything can happen.

We clouded up before I could get a look at the Modis imagery. From what I saw earlier there isn't as much ice as I was expecting. Pretty much confined to the the western basin and south shoreline areas.

We are sort of in a double edged sword situation. Last winter we were able to capitalize on LES in January, and benefit from the fringe of storms in february.

This year we have to contend with a lake that's almost frozen. An arctic blast would kick off a LES event, but freeze it over. A torch would halt ice growth, but provide no system snow. Temps around climo just continue ice growth.

A couple good system snows can save a season. Its just frustrating that we are entering January without yet having any system snow.

Lake effect can be fun while its happening, but watching my 10" go to 6" within 24 hours and down to 3" in 48 without warm temps wasn't all that fun.

[dilly84]

Everyone go over to OT and vote for me for woty! Would be sweet for an Ohio poster to win it.

[OHSnow]

Well, looks like December is done with snowfall, but it was quite a snowy month for northern Ohio.

CLE 12.7 (-0.4)

TOL 6.0 (-2.3)

MFD 10.5 (+0.8)

CAK 19.5 (+10.0) *6TH SNOWIEST ON RECORD*

YNG 53.2 (+41.0) *SNOWIEST ON RECORD*

ERI 17.6 (-7.7)

Days with Snow Cover of Trace or More (through 12/27)

CLE 25

TOL 14

MFD 27

CAK 26

YNG 27 *PEAK DEPTH OF 15" ON 12/9 AND 12/15*

ERI 27

[NEOH]

Looks like the warm up starts tomorrow and last until Saturday. With rain and temps in the 40's we will probably lose most of our snowcover. Although this snow has been on the ground a long time and is dense.

Don Sutherland's thoughts on January were interesting. What a great asset he is to this forum. Don is calling for blocking to return in January, but less intense than December. This could be good for the upper OV valley in terms of having a more favorable storm track. Time will tell of course but Don always seems to spot on with his forecasts.

[michsnowfreak]

Well, looks like December is done with snowfall, but it was quite a snowy month for northern Ohio.

CLE 12.7 (-0.4)

TOL 6.0 (-2.3)

MFD 10.5 (+0.8)

CAK 19.5 (+10.0) *6TH SNOWIEST ON RECORD*

YNG 53.2 (+41.0) *SNOWIEST ON RECORD*

ERI 17.6 (-7.7)

Days with Snow Cover of Trace or More (through 12/27)

CLE 25

TOL 14

MFD 27

CAK 26

YNG 27 *PEAK DEPTH OF 15" ON 12/9 AND 12/15*

ERI 27

DTW is 25 days. While I havent been to Toledo or anything, there is absolutely no way that total is correct. They report 0 snow depth from Dec 17-21 which is ridiculous. I checked Toledo webcams a few times, and while it was less snow than here, it was clearly a full cover of a few inches when the f6 said 0.

Heres TOL f6 and DTW f6. The Dec 12th snowfall was quite waterladen with minimal compaction.

[size="3"]STATION:   TOLEDO OH
                                         MONTH: 	DECEMBER
                                         YEAR:      2010
                                         LATITUDE:   41 35 N
                                         LONGITUDE:  83 48 W

 TEMPERATURE IN F:   	:PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY 	:PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                	12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

1  32  25  29  -5  36   0    T    T    0 16.8 25 240   M    M  10 18 	35 230
2  29  24  27  -7  38   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.2 20 240   M    M  10        25 230
3  31  27  29  -4  36   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.5 13 280   M    M  10 8      17 350
4  32  22  27  -6  38   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.1 14 320   M    M   9        18 320
5  33  23  28  -5  37   0    T    T    0 11.1 23 310   M    M   9 18 	32 300
6  28  23  26  -6  39   0 0.01  0.2    0 13.2 22 310   M    M  10 1      29 310
7  28  19  24  -8  41   0    T    T    T 12.9 24 320   M    M   8        31 320
8  29  17  23  -9  42   0 0.01  0.3    0  9.6 15 250   M    M   8 18 	18 260
9  30   9  20 -11  45   0 0.00  0.0    T  4.4 12 210   M    M   3 18 	16 180
10  39  25  32   1  33   0 0.09  0.7    1 10.1 21 240   M    M   5 18 	25 240
11  44  22  33   2  32   0 0.18  0.0    T  5.1 13 120   M    M   4 18 	20 100
12  38  17  28  -2  37   0 0.76  3.0    0 11.5 25 330   M    M  10 12 	35 350
13  17  10  14 -16  51   0 0.05  1.0    4 16.1 25 330   M    M   5        35 340
14  22   6  14 -16  51   0    T    T    4  9.8 17 290   M    M   1        22 290
15  23   3  13 -16  52   0 0.01  0.1    3  7.0 14 250   M    M   4 18 	18 250
16  24   3  14 -15  51   0 0.00  0.0    2  2.4  9 260   M    M   5 18 	10 260
17  26  15  21  -8  44   0    T    T    0 11.2 22 260   M    M   7 18 	26 260
18  22  11  17 -11  48   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.3 18 220   M    M   1        24 240
19  24  11  18 -10  47   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 14 240   M    M   9 18 	18 230
20  27  11  19  -9  46   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.2  7 260   M    M   6 18 	12 260
21  30  22  26  -1  39   0    T    T    0  4.7 10  90   M    M  10 8      13 100
22  31  23  27   0  38   0 0.04  0.5    T  7.2 15 340   M    M   9 18 	18 350
23  32  27  30   3  35   0 0.00  0.0    1  8.0 15 310   M    M  10        21 310
24  30  24  27   0  38   0 0.00  0.0    1  3.9 12  10   M    M  10        13  10
25  29  23  26   0  39   0    T    T    1  7.5 13 360   M    M  10 18 	18  10
26  27  18  23  -3  42   0 0.01  0.2    1 13.2 23 360   M    M   9 16 	30  30
27  27  16  22  -4  43   0 0.00  0.0    1  9.2 15 240   M    M   4        20 320
28  28  16  22  -4  43   0 0.00  0.0    1 13.8 23 240   M    M   5 1      29 240
================================================================================
SM  812  492      1161   0  1.16 	6.0 249.9          M      201
================================================================================
AV 29.0 17.6                           	8.9 FASTST   M    M   7    MAX(MPH)
                            	MISC ---->  # 25 240           	# 35  230

[size="3"]STATION:   DETROIT MI
                                         MONTH:     DECEMBER
                                         YEAR:      2010
                                         LATITUDE:   42 13 N
                                         LONGITUDE:  83 20 W

 TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                    12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

1  34  26  30  -5  35   0    T  0.1    0 16.7 23 240   M    M  10 1      29 240
2  29  25  27  -7  38   0 0.01  0.2    T 12.6 22 220   M    M  10 1      26 220
3  36  27  32  -2  33   0 0.01  0.1    T  6.4 14 310   M    M   9 1      18 310
4  35  26  31  -2  34   0    T    T    0  7.4 18 330   M    M  10        25 330
5  30  23  27  -6  38   0    T    T    0 13.2 25 340   M    M   9        33 310
6  29  23  26  -7  39   0 0.01  0.3    T 14.0 23 330   M    M  10        39 290
7  29  20  25  -7  40   0    T    T    T 14.2 25 330   M    M   8        36 330
8  30  19  25  -7  40   0    T    T    T  8.6 15 270   M    M   9        18 290
9  29  15  22 -10  43   0 0.00  0.0    T  6.1 16 180   M    M   6        21 190
10  39  26  33   2  32   0 0.07  0.9    1 13.0 22 230   M    M   7 18     26 220
11  41  22  32   1  33   0 0.08  0.0    T  5.8 13 120   M    M   8 18     18 110
12  38  16  27  -3  38   0 0.94  6.3    T 11.2 23 340   M    M  10 129    35 350
13  16   9  13 -17  52   0    T    T    6 17.7 26 330   M    M   6 9      38 320
14  21   9  15 -15  50   0 0.00  0.0    6 13.6 22 320   M    M   3 8      33 320
15  25  13  19 -11  46   0 0.00  0.0    6  4.7 14 270   M    M   5 18     17 260
16  26   6  16 -13  49   0    T    T    5  5.3 10 270   M    M   8 1      14 300
17  28  15  22  -7  43   0    T    T    5 10.9 20 240   M    M   8 1      25 250
18  21  10  16 -13  49   0    T    T    5 11.5 18 200   M    M   8 18     21 200
19  25  18  22  -6  43   0 0.01  0.2    5  7.0 12 230   M    M  10 18     15 240
20  31  22  27  -1  38   0 0.00  0.0    5  4.9 10 310   M    M   9 1      13 300
21  30  22  26  -2  39   0 0.00  0.0    5  3.5  8 110   M    M  10 18     12 240
22  33  25  29   1  36   0 0.06  1.0    6  7.0 16 340   M    M   9 18     22 330
23  32  29  31   4  34   0    T    T    5  9.2 20 340   M    M  10        26 350
24  29  25  27   0  38   0 0.00  0.0    5  5.8 12  10   M    M  10        15  30
25  30  24  27   0  38   0    T    T    5  8.0 20  20   M    M  10 18     23  30
26  28  23  26  -1  39   0 0.01  0.2    5 15.3 24  30   M    M  10 1      33  20
27  24  21  23  -4  42   0    T    T    5  9.6 18  10   M    M   7        26  20
28  29  15  22  -4  43   0 0.00  0.0    5 12.2 22 260   M    M   5 18     26 240
================================================================================
SM  827  554      1122   0  1.20     9.3 275.4          M      234
================================================================================
AV 29.5 19.8                               9.8 FASTST   M    M   8    MAX(MPH)
                                MISC ---->  # 26 330               # 39  290

================================================================================

[/size]

[NEOH]

We are sort of in a double edged sword situation. Last winter we were able to capitalize on LES in January, and benefit from the fringe of storms in february.

This year we have to contend with a lake that's almost frozen. An arctic blast would kick off a LES event, but freeze it over. A torch would halt ice growth, but provide no system snow. Temps around climo just continue ice growth.

A couple good system snows can save a season. Its just frustrating that we are entering January without yet having any system snow.

Lake effect can be fun while its happening, but watching my 10" go to 6" within 24 hours and down to 3" in 48 without warm temps wasn't all that fun.

Finally a good look at ice cover on the lake. Western basin is mostly ice covered, but very thin. There is some patchy pack ice in the central basin but a lot more open water than I was expecting. Should melt some as well the next few days.