Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[Chagrin Falls]

CLE says a .5 at most

It's coming down moderately in Chagrin. Nice flake size. No doubt the snow is picking up moisture from the lake.

Hopefully we can squeeze out an inch or two. Maybe another inch or two tonight as well.

Lake enhancement will be the death of me. I forecasted "flurries" today. So far it looks like we've had about 0.5" of "flurries".

[NEOH]

Lake enhancement will be the death of me. I forecasted "flurries" today. So far it looks like we've had about 0.5" of "flurries".

Yeah, lake enhancement can certainly throw a wrench in a forecast. Odd appearance to the snow on radar... almost looks cellular.

[Trent]

Yeah, lake enhancement can certainly throw a wrench in a forecast. Odd appearance to the snow on radar... almost looks cellular.

And over just as quickly as it started.

CLE isn't all that excited about LES prospects this week. In addition, there really isn't much storm potential for the foreseeable future.

As the lake continues to cool and form ice at the shores, you got to wonder what will happen come January. I almost wish we had torched the past two weeks, could have saved on my heating bill.

[NEOH]

And over just as quickly as it started.

CLE isn't all that excited about LES prospects this week. In addition, there really isn't much storm potential for the foreseeable future.

As the lake continues to cool and form ice at the shores, you got to wonder what will happen come January. I almost wish we had torched the past two weeks, could have saved on my heating bill.

Hard to say about LES this weekend. If the storm winds up as much as the models are showing there will be moisture thrown back this way with a nice cyclonic flow. Only limiting factor are marginal 850's... but the moisture and flow would easily overcome that.

It's always disappointing when the lake starts to freeze. If the cold continues LES will become more and more limited due to ice. Besides LES, we have not benefited from this cold pattern at all synoptically.

I wouldn't mind a 3 or 4 day torch to shake things up. I really have no idea what's in store the rest of the winter. We had a cold December for a change with very little synoptic snow to show for it. If its going to be dry... I'll take the warmth as well.

[NEOH]

Wow. Latest Euro is just a bomb. Just how much further west does/can this move?

[Trent]

Wow. Latest Euro is just a bomb. Just how much further west does/can this move?

I know. Historic. Doesn't seem like the precip shield extends much past central PA. Could have implications for LES. It's funny how this event keeps getting pushed back.

[dilly84]

I know. Historic. Doesn't seem like the precip shield extends much past central PA. Could have implications for LES. It's funny how this event keeps getting pushed back.

Gives pit 4-6" so wouldn't take much of a west shift to throw some stuff our way if the block allows that to happen lol

[NEOH]

Gives pit 4-6" so wouldn't take much of a west shift to throw some stuff our way if the block allows that to happen lol

Dilly - At the very least there will be a strong northerly flow so even those in central OH will see some snowshowers around. If the storm can manage to make it west to the coastal plain eastern OH could see some snow. Still a long way to go on this one. The storm is now 4 days away, again.

[Steve]

Gives pit 4-6" so wouldn't take much of a west shift to throw some stuff our way if the block allows that to happen lol

I have given up on this storm..and a white christmas..this snow..... what little is left will be gone with just a little sun..Funny how if rain is forecasted five days out..we get it..but boy you forcaste snow that far out..it never happens..At this point i would be happy with an inch..Just to refresh!!

[dilly84]

Couple shots of the yard

[Trent]

In the short term, might be a little snow. NAM has a general area of+ .25" for NE OH over the next 48 hrs.

[Steve]

Couple shots of the yard

Just about a carbon copy here in Newark!!

[NEOH]

In the short term, might be a little snow. NAM has a general area of+ .25" for NE OH over the next 48 hrs.

Yep, a few inches certainly looks possible. Not going to be heavy but enough to freshen up the snow at least.

[Trent]

Yep, a few inches certainly looks possible. Not going to be heavy but enough to freshen up the snow at least.

I was surprised to return home to about 1.5" of new snow. I did notice on the radar earlier that there were a few 35 dbz returns along the west shore this morning. It must have dumped an inch in 30 minutes or so here, whatever dusting fell downtown was already melted at 5 pm.

Radar looks a bit scraggly right now.

[Chagrin Falls]

The roads are fairly icy here this evening. We've had some light freezing drizzle mixed in with the 1" of snow.

[Trent]

Just checked out the storm thread from last night... looks like a good time was had by all.

It's snowing nicely this morning. We've had snow cover for weeks now so no complaints about missing the storm to the East.... a white Christmas is guaranteed. If the storm can throw some snow back to OH great... if not so be it.

I never read that thread until now.

I've been looking at the meso models out of BUF every run now for the past two weeks, just to get a feel for them. It seems they overdo LES way too much. They've been consistently wanting to put out a 3-6" and now 4-8" band from eastern Cuyahoga up through Geauga for the past few days.

I actually rather enjoyed seeing a fresh coating of snow out there this evening. Realistically nothing major for the next week, but at least there'll be several opportunities for quick 1-2" snows to keep it from getting too boring.

[dilly84]

slowly getting better

[NEOH]

Feels warm this morning... temp up to 31. Not sure if the picture has become any clearer on the weekend storm. If anything, most of OH should see snow showers. Hopefully enough to whiten things up for everyone.

What's up with the midwest posters and pictures of kids? Disturbing. Good to see everyone in the OH thread without pictures of children.

[NEOH]

If the models are correct

MY ONLY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC FORCING OVER THE CLE FORECAST AREA. 700-300MB Q VECTORS SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY BUT THE SIGNAL IS STRONG. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. I WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. AS THE EAST COAST SYSTEM DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL

BEGIN OVER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -12C WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO START THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. THE MODELS SHOW DECENT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE EAST COAST STORM

AND INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 10K FEET. THE TRAJECTORIES ARE ESTABLISHED FOR A LAKE HURON FETCH. IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE CORRECT...I EXPECT A DECENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Chagrin Falls]

If the models are correct -12°C, 850 hPa is marginal for significant lake effect snow with lake surface temperatures around 0°C. Lake Huron is likely a few degrees warmer than Lake Erie, so even more marginal for a strong fetch to develop. It could be to that the wind might not have a westerly component at all (either due N or NNE). If that is the case, the primary snowbelt shouldn't see much.

Looks like a bit of a warm up as the upper-air pattern changes and we get on the west side of that high pressure ridge, just in time for the New Year!

[NEOH]

If the models are correct -12°C, 850 hPa is marginal for significant lake effect snow with lake surface temperatures around 0°C. Lake Huron is likely a few degrees warmer than Lake Erie, so even more marginal for a strong fetch to develop. It could be to that the wind might not have a westerly component at all (either due N or NNE). If that is the case, the primary snowbelt shouldn't see much.

Looks like a bit of a warm up as the upper-air pattern changes and we get on the west side of that high pressure ridge, just in time for the New Year!

Even though 850 temps are marginal, we tend to do pretty good with lake enhanced snow in the primary snowbelt when the winds are from the north. Beginning Saturday night, winds are modeled to be from 360 - 340 through Monday night... a very favorable flow (the only) for a lake huron connection. We saw a lot of this last year. Waves of snow would be most likely instead of a single band.

[Chagrin Falls]

Even though 850 temps are marginal, we tend to do pretty good with lake enhanced snow in the primary snowbelt when the winds are from the north. Beginning Saturday night, winds are modeled to be from 360 - 340 through Monday night... a very favorable flow (the only) for a lake huron connection. We saw a lot of this last year. Waves of snow would be most likely instead of a single band.

From CLE's 4 A.M. update:

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL START TO TRANSITION INTO A

LAKE ENHANCED AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL NOT

BE HIGH...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE. THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST AND

THEN WE WILL GO TO NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW

DEVELOPING MONDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO

THE REGION. AT THIS TIME THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE REAL

HIGH.

[NEOH]

From CLE's 4 A.M. update:

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL START TO TRANSITION INTO A

LAKE ENHANCED AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL NOT

BE HIGH...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE. THE FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST AND

THEN WE WILL GO TO NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW

DEVELOPING MONDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO

THE REGION. AT THIS TIME THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE REAL

HIGH.

Evening AFD: IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE CORRECT...I EXPECT A DECENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY

Overnight AFD: AT THIS TIME THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE REAL

HIGH.

Certainly not looking like a significant event. Wouldn't be surprised to see someone get 6+ -- northern medina or southern cuyahoga maybe?

NYE storm looks ugly. Enjoy the snow while its here... looks to be washed away later next week... if you believe the models of course.

[Trent]

CLE is not buying the snowfall chances this weekend at all. I see POPS are only at 30 or 40 through Sunday night, which seems too low.

The Hi-Res models definitely want to throw a few inches out, but then again they've been bullish the past two weeks almost every run.

[Trent]

Chances are picking up. A little fresh snow, before it all disappears next week.

WHAT I AM MORE

CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE WIDESPREAD DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE OVER THE

AREA FROM THE EAST COAST STORM. IF THE MAINTAIN DEEP

MOISTURE...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE MARGINAL...WE WILL GENERATE LAKE

EFFECT. THE WIND FLOW WILL GENERALLY NORTHERLY WHICH WILL FAVOR

SECONDARY SNOWBELTS. I WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR

SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME AS

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT WILL NEED TO BE

MONITORED.

[Chagrin Falls]

Chances are picking up. A little fresh snow, before it all disappears next week.

WHAT I AM MORE

CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE WIDESPREAD DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE OVER THE

AREA FROM THE EAST COAST STORM. IF THE MAINTAIN DEEP

MOISTURE...EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE MARGINAL...WE WILL GENERATE LAKE

EFFECT. THE WIND FLOW WILL GENERALLY NORTHERLY WHICH WILL FAVOR

SECONDARY SNOWBELTS. I WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR

SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME AS

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT WILL NEED TO BE

MONITORED.

Back-and-forth, no? I briefly looked at the GFS and I thought the surface high was

strong and pronouced. The ensembles aren't predicting any significant wrap-around for

this far away from the ocean.

In any event, with my limited experience I'd expect lighter amounts in general, but I'm

NOT confident in lake forecasting.

I'm looking forward to the warm up. Looks like at the least the mid 40s are likely

before the New Year, but the ensembles are all over the place with the timing and

strength of the low towards January 1st, the ECMWF ensembles being the fastest.

[NEOH]

Back-and-forth, no? I briefly looked at the GFS and I thought the surface high was

strong and pronouced. The ensembles aren't predicting any significant wrap-around for

this far away from the ocean.

In any event, with my limited experience I'd expect lighter amounts in general, but I'm

NOT confident in lake forecasting.

I'm looking forward to the warm up. Looks like at the least the mid 40s are likely

before the New Year, but the ensembles are all over the place with the timing and

strength of the low towards January 1st, the ECMWF ensembles being the fastest.

I think Trent may have been referring to lake effect/enhanced snow rather than snow on the backside of the EC storm. I'd say a general 1-3 is likely across most of the area... with the higher elevations of the snowbelt seeing 4+.

I'm not looking forward to the warm up. It was warm from March - October... can't ask for much more than that in NE ohio.

Now that the models show the midwestern low tracking well west of here you know they will stay rock solid on that track. No waivering at all. Looks warm and rainy for OH around NYE.

[Chagrin Falls]

When I said "back and forth" I was talking about the CLE AFD's. Sorry if there was any confusion.

So far for the month CLE's temperature departure is -7.2 degrees F with 90% average daily cloud cover. I know this is supposed to be Cleveland's darkest month from a climatological standpoint, but it is time for a bit of a change. The constant onshore flow has caused a lot of gloom in Chagirn Falls. Only 4 days so far this month without accumulating snowfall. I count 2 days at CLE that have had no precipitation.

[Trent]

When I said "back and forth" I was talking about the CLE AFD's. Sorry if there was any confusion.

So far for the month CLE's temperature departure is -7.2 degrees F with 90% average daily cloud cover. I know this is supposed to be Cleveland's darkest month from a climatological standpoint, but it is time for a bit of a change. The constant onshore flow has caused a lot of gloom in Chagirn Falls. Only 4 days so far this month without accumulating snowfall,

Yeah, the AFDs tend to vary wildly from morning to afternoon.

Lake forecasting is very complex. You never really know how a band is going to set-up, especially with a N/NE flow, which isn't a typical lake effect set up. Prime example of the big unknowns being 2.5 weeks ago. Who would have foreseen 11" falling in downtown during the workday hours?

[dilly84]

Merry Christmas everyone. I am happy to say despite what models showed, It started snowing at 3am last night and snowed til around 4:30 which, was enough to give a fresh inch of snow for Christmas morning. Looks nice out and am happy with the end result of this storm system.