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Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Chagrin Falls

Chagrin Falls

Posted
Posted

CLE is actually starting a snowfall deficit now. Regardless of whether the storm on Christmas misses, it will set the stage for unpredictable, untrackable, yet reliable for a few inches LES. Perhaps the Huron connection will be more favorable.

I'm not going to complain because the LES storm 2 weeks ago was incredible and wont be topped this winter. It's just getting frustrating that we can't seem to get one system around these parts. Half my winter excitement comes from tracking storms, which have been non existent for quite some time.

Trent,

Well if you are into synoptic snow the good news is the Greenland block and corresponding southeast Canada polar vortex look to be finished by the end of next week.

post-2513-0-57067600-1292863539.gif

The bad news is temporarily this will result in a much more zonal flow across the hemisphere. It does look the long-wave pattern is slowly changing though...

Didn't you present analogs that inferred this winter will likely be a low snowfall winter for Cleveland? It had something to do with our lack of snowfall in November, I thought.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

CLE is actually starting a snowfall deficit now. Regardless of whether the storm on Christmas misses, it will set the stage for unpredictable, untrackable, yet reliable for a few inches LES. Perhaps the Huron connection will be more favorable.

I'm not going to complain because the LES storm 2 weeks ago was incredible and wont be topped this winter. It's just getting frustrating that we can't seem to get one system around these parts. Half my winter excitement comes from tracking storms, which have been non existent for quite some time.

For CLE to be starting a snowfall deficit is amazing. Almost amazing as YNG having their snowiest December ever. The common ground between these two locations is the way snow is measured. Both have some kind of observer that is not a NWS employee. How many snowfall records have been broken at YNG the past few years (cue OHSNOW)? Does that really seem right or is YNG in the heart of the snowbelt now?

I take these measurements with a grain of salt. As the guy at the NWS told me... they have a hard time measuring when it is windy... and it has been windy. It's crazy to think that historical measurements are not being taken accurately... but I guess that's just the way it is. Sorry for the rant.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

For CLE to be starting a snowfall deficit is amazing. Almost amazing as YNG having their snowiest December ever. The common ground between these two locations is the way snow is measured. Both have some kind of observer that is not a NWS employee. How many snowfall records have been broken at YNG the past few years (cue OHSNOW)? Does that really seem right or is YNG in the heart of the snowbelt now?

I take these measurements with a grain of salt. As the guy at the NWS told me... they have a hard time measuring when it is windy... and it has been windy. It's crazy to think that historical measurements are not being taken accurately... but I guess that's just the way it is. Sorry for the rant.

Yeah, no doubt the YNG total is inflated somewhat. Measuring near a roof where snow blows down? The CLE total is likely legit this year. The mega band downtown completely avoided the airport. Outside of that, there really hasn't been much on the west side.

CLE really does well with enhancement snow. Thus it's feast or famine. You either have an active pattern with storms to enhance snowfall, or no storms and LES 5 miles to the south and east.

Historically, snowless Novembers have been bad harbingers for the winter ahead. But in Cuyahoga County, where snowfall varies 10" to the mile, its a combo of LES and system snow that makes a winter. One municipality may do great, but the next town over could do crappy. But in the end its whatever falls at CLE that goes into the record books.

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

For CLE to be starting a snowfall deficit is amazing. Almost amazing as YNG having their snowiest December ever. The common ground between these two locations is the way snow is measured. Both have some kind of observer that is not a NWS employee. How many snowfall records have been broken at YNG the past few years (cue OHSNOW)? Does that really seem right or is YNG in the heart of the snowbelt now?

I take these measurements with a grain of salt. As the guy at the NWS told me... they have a hard time measuring when it is windy... and it has been windy. It's crazy to think that historical measurements are not being taken accurately... but I guess that's just the way it is. Sorry for the rant.

I think they're accurate. Traveling across the state the other day, it looked like western Cuyahoga and Lorain County had the least amount of snow than anywhere else in northern Ohio -- including Toledo and Sandusky. That was the only area where the grass wasn't even completely covered. The Avon/Amherst area looked like there was less than an inch. There was way more snow in Portage and Trumbull Counties. I'd say there was close to a foot on the ground at Brady's Leap.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

For CLE to be starting a snowfall deficit is amazing. Almost amazing as YNG having their snowiest December ever. The common ground between these two locations is the way snow is measured. Both have some kind of observer that is not a NWS employee. How many snowfall records have been broken at YNG the past few years (cue OHSNOW)? Does that really seem right or is YNG in the heart of the snowbelt now?

I take these measurements with a grain of salt. As the guy at the NWS told me... they have a hard time measuring when it is windy... and it has been windy. It's crazy to think that historical measurements are not being taken accurately... but I guess that's just the way it is. Sorry for the rant.

What I find mind boggling is that the NWS office is at the airport in Cleveland. I'm shocked that they don't measure the snow themselves or at least don't maintain their own records. It must be the only NWS office in the country where they don't measure at the office.

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

It's just been a hit-and-miss winter everywhere -- Erie is nearly seven inches below normal, YNG is close to three feet above normal. The two major LES events have occurred with gusty northwest winds, leaving places near the shore with less snow than inland areas.

CLE 12.0 (-0.6)

TOL 5.3 (-2.2)

MFD 10.5 (+2.0)

CAK 17.6 (+8.3)

YNG 47.7 (+35.7)

ERI 17.0 (-6.8)

Other nearby locations:

PIT 9.3 (+2.0)

BUF 30.2 (+4.2)

ROC 46.6 (+25.5)

BGM 29.7 (+11.1)

AVP 0.8 (-7.4)

SYR 71.7 (+46.0)

DTW 8.1 (-1.2)

FNT 10.8 (+0.3)

CVG 12.7 (+9.1)

DAY 7.8 (+3.3)

CMH 6.9 (+2.7)

FWA 10.4 (+2.2)

SBN 24.4 (+5.4)

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Actually most of Michigan saw quite a fierce winter storm on December 12th, complete with gridlocking all of metro-Detroit freeways and even closing most schools in the winter-hardy upper peninsula. It was a 10"+ blizzard in much of northern MI, and a 5-8" snowstorm in southeast MI, complete with flash freeze followed by blizzard conditions. The part of the state that was screwed was SW MI, and what happened to "dry up" their snow is that secondary L that formed over Lake Erie. It basically sucked the moisture in what was supposed to be a nice band of deformation snow over western MI (blackrock's area) and instead deposited it in a heavy band of snow over eastern MI. While its unusual to see deeper snow on this side of the state than the other side, cant say Im in mourning, because by winters end they will be well ahead of us as always. Its very rare to find a storm that makes both sides of the state happy. And it LOOKS like they will do better with this clipper Tuesday. But who knows, nothing is going as expected this month, so Im sure many will see surprises, both good and bad, in this coming week.

Hey! I just responsed to your post on another thread about this pattern...pretty much said what you just said. Oh...and about the clipper tomorrow..."sigh"...was looking good until yesterday...and just like all the other ones, looks like it's going to dis us. Just can't win over here his winter!

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Chagrin Falls

Chagrin Falls

Posted
Posted

What I find mind boggling is that the NWS office is at the airport in Cleveland. I'm shocked that they don't measure the snow themselves or at least don't maintain their own records. It must be the only NWS office in the country where they don't measure at the office.

There is a contract weather observer at CLE located in the same federal building as the NWS. He measures snowfall and snowdepth for the records along with augmenting the airport weather station (ASOS). CAK & YNG also have observers.

Most NWS offices were moved away from airports during the modernization program in the 1990s. I think the NWS assumed ASOS would be a stand-alone system back then, while it has some nice features it is not reliable enough to produce consistently accurate climatological and aviation type observations. Unfortunately, some of the smaller airports that used to have WSOs and forecast offices do not have augmenting contract observers, so their data has suffered. Perhaps that is why there is so much interest in programs like CoCoRAHS now.

Unfortunately the climatic data at many smaller airports has suffered.

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ArmyGreens

ArmyGreens

Posted
Posted

I gotta say guys, the band of snow in Indiana looks pretty good. If it can maintain itself on east through Ohio, I'd say it'd be good for a couple inches before any changeover to sleet/frz rain. Might end up being a thump and then misting.

LOL! Just said the same thing in the "super secret forum":ph34r:

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

Perhaps it wasn't wise of me to buy top of the line tires for snow traction last week. :axe:

Maybe we can wiggle out a few inches of LES with a northerly flow this week. However, its amazing how places that got dumped on with 20+ only have a 4-8" depth ... the biggest downfall to lake effect.

Such a shame to waste 8-10 degree departures without a storm.

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

Perhaps it wasn't wise of me to buy top of the line tires for snow traction last week. :axe:

Maybe we can wiggle out a few inches of LES with a northerly flow this week. However, its amazing how places that got dumped on with 20+ only have a 4-8" depth ... the biggest downfall to lake effect.

Such a shame to waste 8-10 degree departures without a storm.

Yeah, I think a lot of the extremely high LES totals are really misleading. Like YNG has had 49 inches this month and SYR has had 72 inches, yet both spots have 7 inches on the ground right now. You know darn well if this was synoptic snow, the depth would be a lot higher. What they should do is measure the liquid equivalent of the snow and then use a ratio based on temperature and other parameters, because that would probably better represent the impact of the snowfall. 6 inches of LES is a lot easier to deal with than 6" of system snow.

Warnings should only be issued for LES if an average of at least 8 inches will fall in 12 hours or 12 inches in 24 hours or if snowfall rates of 2" per hour or greater will occur regardless of total snowfall, and advisories should be issued only for 6" in 12 hours or 9 inches in 24 hours or snowfall rates of 1" per hour or greater regardless of snowfall total.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Perhaps it wasn't wise of me to buy top of the line tires for snow traction last week. :axe:

Maybe we can wiggle out a few inches of LES with a northerly flow this week. However, its amazing how places that got dumped on with 20+ only have a 4-8" depth ... the biggest downfall to lake effect.

Such a shame to waste 8-10 degree departures without a storm.

You'll need the tires. I think most of OH will see snow this weekend. I'm riding Buckeye's bus... even though it is starting to fill up with empty beer cans. Still a long ways to go... the track is not set in stone at this point.

Could be nasty along the lakeshore with a strong Northerly flow and lake enhancement.... even with coastal storms the lakeshore counties can do pretty well. What's crazy is the flow may actually be to far from the NE for a huron connection until the storm moves away.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

You'll need the tires. I think most of OH will see snow this weekend. I'm riding Buckeye's bus... even though it is starting to fill up with empty beer cans. Still a long ways to go... the track is not set in stone at this point.

Could be nasty along the lakeshore with a strong Northerly flow and lake enhancement.... even with coastal storms the lakeshore counties can do pretty well. What's crazy is the flow may actually be to far from the NE for a huron connection until the storm moves away.

That's the one benefit of a miss to the south and east, we get to board the lake effect train. I'd like a nice Huron connection for once this winter. At least a northerly flow encompasses the warmer unfrozen part of the lake.

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NEOH

NEOH

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That's the one benefit of a miss to the south and east, we get to board the lake effect train. I'd like a nice Huron connection for once this winter. At least a northerly flow encompasses the warmer unfrozen part of the lake.

The storm track with ultimately dictate the flow. Looks like a solid Northerly flow though... and add 200+ miles of open water from Lake Huron to the mix. If this storm is as strong as the Euro shows the thin lake ice will be ripped to shreds and pushed to the southern shore.

Still holding out hope the storm *if it develops* can come inland a bit. You would think such a wrapped up storm would have a tendency to come west. We just need an earlier phase.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

Damn, I missed his forecast. Had a little nap on ye ole couch. What did he say?

Gave 3 scenarios for the L

If it stays as is 1-2"

TN Valley 3 -5

Kentucky 4 - 7

Here are our options for this to work out for us, we need either the phase to happen faster and come nw, or we need the northern stream to weaken. As you see when it is down around AR there is a lot of moisture as it is moving east until the northern stream catches it basically and robs the energy from the southern stream.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Just checked out the storm thread from last night... looks like a good time was had by all. :arrowhead:

It's snowing nicely this morning. We've had snow cover for weeks now so no complaints about missing the storm to the East.... a white Christmas is guaranteed. If the storm can throw some snow back to OH great... if not so be it.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Nice lake enhanced snowfall setting up right now. Good for a few inches?

CLE says a .5 at most :popcorn:

It's coming down moderately in Chagrin. Nice flake size. No doubt the snow is picking up moisture from the lake.

Hopefully we can squeeze out an inch or two. Maybe another inch or two tonight as well.

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