Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[OHSnow]

I find the stats at YNG to be quite peculiar. Why is it that all of a sudden after decades of records, they are getting record amounts of snow? Why is it that they never received copious amounts of Lake Effect Snow prior to 2005?

I don't know. Other parts of northern Ohio seem to be getting more snow too -- like Mansfield. It could be some sort of effect of climate change (e.g. through more water vapor, less extreme cold which isn't conducive to snow, later ice outs on the Great Lakes, or just an overall increase in storminess) or perhaps better observation techniques. LES can be hard to measure if you're lazy because often there's lots of dustings that somebody who doesn't care might just call a trace. And there can be a lot of melting/sublimation due to the fluffy nature of LES, so if you just measure the increase in snow depth at the end of the day that can be a lot different than taking measurements every 6 hours or as soon as the snow stops. Or it might be a combination of the two.

This seems to be happening throughout the Great Lakes though. Look at Syracuse earlier this month. They reported 50" in four days but never had a 7AM depth over 21" although there was actually one hour in between where the depth was up to 26". The snow was so light and fluffy that the depth actually fell 5" over the course of a bitterly cold overnight with continued accumulating snow showers.

[TugHillMatt]

I hope no one has given up on the Tuesday event. I still think most of Ohio sees a few inches out of it. I don't buy that all the heavy snow over Iowa, etc just dies out as it reaches us. Still, it won't be spectacular, but another small event to keep adding to our ground cover and monthly totals. The Christmas storm I'm not even going to comment on at this point. I could see a lot of different things happening with that and it's not at a good range yet.

Also I hope that no one is planning on a warm January just yet either. The AO might not even reach neutral let alone positive if the new forecasts are right. If we end up going into another strong blocking the first week of January, I am going to like 1903-04/1962-63 a lot more for how this winter may play out. But given the unprecedented strength of the -AO for a December, it's really hard to know where exactly we are going with this. Speaking of December, the departures so far this month are pretty incredible so far. Here are the means and departures through 12/18.

It's been happening in Western Michigan for the last month. Not to bring down your hopes, but it is entirely possible. That blocking is like a force field that just rips anything apart that comes near it. I hope you get some, but keep your expectations low (especially for this winter) unless you live in Minnesota.

[jbcmh81]

It's been happening in Western Michigan for the last month. Not to bring down your hopes, but it is entirely possible. That blocking is like a force field that just rips anything apart that comes near it. I hope you get some, but keep your expectations low (especially for this winter) unless you live in Minnesota.

That's why I said I don't expect anything great, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches. And I don't think Michigan has really been in the path of any of the storms so far. There have been three distinct storms so far this month. The clipper went well south of Michigan, the second storm was weird and ended up missing a lot of people both north and south, and the 3rd event was too far south for Michigan as well, and barely even reached to 70 here. I have not see a situation yet this winter where a storm simply dried up as it headed east. It's been more about a lousy track.

[TugHillMatt]

That's why I said I don't expect anything great, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches. And I don't think Michigan has really been in the path of any of the storms so far. There have been three distinct storms so far this month. The clipper went well south of Michigan, the second storm was weird and ended up missing a lot of people both north and south, and the 3rd event was too far south for Michigan as well, and barely even reached to 70 here. I have not see a situation yet this winter where a storm simply dried up as it headed east. It's been more about a lousy track.

They don't "dry up"...they lose energy. We had a clipper move directly towards us...expecting 3 to 5 inches and by the time it got here, we got less than an inch. It just fell apart. The second system was the "big one" that was supposed to drop a foot of snow...got an inch. It headed right towards us, but then the low that developed over Ohio "stole" all the energy and moisture from the original low. Trust me, some of the systems have indeed headed towards Michigan and just fizzled. Just like I'm sure some will do as they head east towards other areas. It's our current pattern.

[dilly84]

If anything does fall from the Tuesday event, looks to be nothing to write home about, but maybe enough to cover the grass here again.

Dilly, do you even have a snow pack there?

The Christmas storm has too many unknown variables at this point. Considering it's day 6, it's going to be watch and see for the next few days. GFS shows quite an expansive precip shield to the north for a low tracking that far south.

1/2 inch lol. Sorry took me a while to reply. Watching the Browns!

[jbcmh81]

They don't "dry up"...they lose energy. We had a clipper move directly towards us...expecting 3 to 5 inches and by the time it got here, we got less than an inch. It just fell apart. The second system was the "big one" that was supposed to drop a foot of snow...got an inch. It headed right towards us, but then the low that developed over Ohio "stole" all the energy and moisture from the original low. Trust me, some of the systems have indeed headed towards Michigan and just fizzled. Just like I'm sure some will do as they head east towards other areas. It's our current pattern.

What clipper was that because we've only had one, and it went from the northern Plains south throuh KY, not towards Michigan at all. The second storm was very poorly modeled and they did not handle the southern low very well. A lot of people ended up getting screwed over. It still wasn't a system that fell apart, it just didn't hit your area. The 3rd storm, again, came from Oklahoma to KY and was never supposed to hit Michigan. I guess I'm just not seeing where Michigan has been in the line of sight for these events, and we still haven't had a storm that fell apart as it came east. They've all been fairly different.

[Trent]

I don't know. Other parts of northern Ohio seem to be getting more snow too -- like Mansfield. It could be some sort of effect of climate change (e.g. through more water vapor, less extreme cold which isn't conducive to snow, later ice outs on the Great Lakes, or just an overall increase in storminess) or perhaps better observation techniques. LES can be hard to measure if you're lazy because often there's lots of dustings that somebody who doesn't care might just call a trace. And there can be a lot of melting/sublimation due to the fluffy nature of LES, so if you just measure the increase in snow depth at the end of the day that can be a lot different than taking measurements every 6 hours or as soon as the snow stops. Or it might be a combination of the two.

This seems to be happening throughout the Great Lakes though. Look at Syracuse earlier this month. They reported 50" in four days but never had a 7AM depth over 21" although there was actually one hour in between where the depth was up to 26". The snow was so light and fluffy that the depth actually fell 5" over the course of a bitterly cold overnight with continued accumulating snow showers.

It might just be a matter of measuring location. YNG is well north of Youngstown and much higher in elevation. I know several of the climate sites stats are recorded from coop observers in nearby locations. A switch from one coop observer to another from south to north of the airport combined with a different measuring technique could make a huge difference.

With the lake effect machine kicking in again this week, expect a few more inches. YNG could hit 60 for the month.

[Trent]

1/2 inch lol. Sorry took me a while to reply. Watching the Browns!

Hah!

Yeah, we've got about the same here. Grass is showing through about 75% of the areas, but where the snow had drifted there's maybe 2 inches. I'm calling it an inch, but a little sun and 33 would turn it into a trace rather quickly.

[Chagrin Falls]

The Tuesday low doesn't look like it will bring much snow at all, at least for Northeast Ohio. It is a dissipating surface low in zonal flow aloft. Even after the low passes, lake effect probabilities look marginal at best. The air looks dry, it is not very cold (relative to lake water/ice temperature) and the flow looks almost due north.

[OHSnow]

It might just be a matter of measuring location. YNG is well north of Youngstown and much higher in elevation. I know several of the climate sites stats are recorded from coop observers in nearby locations. A switch from one coop observer to another from south to north of the airport combined with a different measuring technique could make a huge difference.

With the lake effect machine kicking in again this week, expect a few more inches. YNG could hit 60 for the month.

No, everything's been measured at the airport since the 1940s.

[Trent]

Here are some shots I took of Lake Erie this evening. The strong winds gusting 40-50mph for 48 hours straight earlier in the week created some impressive ice formations. Many of these trees are coated in feet of ice!

[dilly84]

Pretty neat looking shots Trent. This board is quiet considering what's on the horizon for xmas eve

[Chagrin Falls]

No, everything's been measured at the airport since the 1940s.

It would be unlikely the airport observations would be inaccurate. YNG has a contract weather observer augmenting the ASOS and they do measure snowfall amount in their 6-hourly synoptic observations.

KYNG 192351Z 00000KT 3SM -SN BR FEW024 BKN040 OVC090 M06/M07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP185 60003 4/007 931006 8/57/ T10561067 11039 21056 50000

[OHSnow]

It would be unlikely the airport observations would be inaccurate. YNG has a contract weather observer augmenting the ASOS and they do measure snowfall amount in their 6-hourly synoptic observations.

KYNG 192351Z 00000KT 3SM -SN BR FEW024 BKN040 OVC090 M06/M07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP185 60003 4/007 931006 8/57/ T10561067 11039 21056 50000

Yeah, it's accurate. There was probably another half inch or so this evening.

[Chagrin Falls]

Pretty neat looking shots Trent. This board is quiet considering what's on the horizon for xmas eve

I'm kind of skeptical about the Christmas time event as well. Per the ECMWF ensembles which seem fairly confident, the flow looks fairly zonal and not conducive to cyclogenisis, the low develops Christmas eve in the southern plains but it doesn't deepen much at all, about 1013 hPa or so. It seems to track south and redevelop as a coastal storm. That energy transfer tends to leave Ohio fairly dry...certainly doesn't look like a whopper of a storm at this point in time.

The upper-air flow seems a bit more likely a coastal storm will develop this weekend, but for the Midwest we just aren't in a pattern that would produce a big snowstorm. Honestly, I think the entire upper-air flow around the Northern Hemisphere would have to reshuffle itself before we need to start talking about big storms.

With the polar vortex where it is I think we are going to stay colder and drier than normal.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!216!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2010121812!!/

[Trent]

I'm kind of skeptical about the Christmas time event as well. Per the ECMWF ensembles which seem fairly confident, the flow looks fairly zonal and not conducive to cyclogenisis, the low develops Christmas eve in the southern plains but it doesn't deepen much at all, about 1013 hPa or so. It seems to track south and redevelop as a coastal storm. That energy transfer tends to leave Ohio fairly dry...certainly doesn't look like a whopper of a storm at this point in time.

The upper-air flow seems a bit more likely a coastal storm will develop this weekend, but for the Midwest we just aren't in a pattern that would produce a big snowstorm. Honestly, I think the entire upper-air flow around the Northern Hemisphere would have to reshuffle itself before we need to start talking about big storms.

With the polar vortex where it is I think we are going to stay colder and drier than normal.

http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2010121812!!/

Thanks for the input!

I'm trying not to look forward to this potential storm too much, but looking at each model run is addicting. With regards to Tuesday, it's been 5-6 days of looking at the models for what appears to be a half inch of snow if we're lucky.

[dilly84]

I'm kind of skeptical about the Christmas time event as well. Per the ECMWF ensembles which seem fairly confident, the flow looks fairly zonal and not conducive to cyclogenisis, the low develops Christmas eve in the southern plains but it doesn't deepen much at all, about 1013 hPa or so. It seems to track south and redevelop as a coastal storm. That energy transfer tends to leave Ohio fairly dry...certainly doesn't look like a whopper of a storm at this point in time.

The upper-air flow seems a bit more likely a coastal storm will develop this weekend, but for the Midwest we just aren't in a pattern that would produce a big snowstorm. Honestly, I think the entire upper-air flow around the Northern Hemisphere would have to reshuffle itself before we need to start talking about big storms.

With the polar vortex where it is I think we are going to stay colder and drier than normal.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!216!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2010121812!!/

I can't throw out the fact of model conensus for it. Never seen so much agreement this far out.

[michsnowfreak]

That's why I said I don't expect anything great, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches. And I don't think Michigan has really been in the path of any of the storms so far. There have been three distinct storms so far this month. The clipper went well south of Michigan, the second storm was weird and ended up missing a lot of people both north and south, and the 3rd event was too far south for Michigan as well, and barely even reached to 70 here. I have not see a situation yet this winter where a storm simply dried up as it headed east. It's been more about a lousy track.

Actually most of Michigan saw quite a fierce winter storm on December 12th, complete with gridlocking all of metro-Detroit freeways and even closing most schools in the winter-hardy upper peninsula. It was a 10"+ blizzard in much of northern MI, and a 5-8" snowstorm in southeast MI, complete with flash freeze followed by blizzard conditions. The part of the state that was screwed was SW MI, and what happened to "dry up" their snow is that secondary L that formed over Lake Erie. It basically sucked the moisture in what was supposed to be a nice band of deformation snow over western MI (blackrock's area) and instead deposited it in a heavy band of snow over eastern MI. While its unusual to see deeper snow on this side of the state than the other side, cant say Im in mourning, because by winters end they will be well ahead of us as always. Its very rare to find a storm that makes both sides of the state happy. And it LOOKS like they will do better with this clipper Tuesday. But who knows, nothing is going as expected this month, so Im sure many will see surprises, both good and bad, in this coming week.

[michsnowfreak]

Here are some shots I took of Lake Erie this evening. The strong winds gusting 40-50mph for 48 hours straight earlier in the week created some impressive ice formations. Many of these trees are coated in feet of ice!

awesome pics!

[Hoosier]

Here are some shots I took of Lake Erie this evening. The strong winds gusting 40-50mph for 48 hours straight earlier in the week created some impressive ice formations. Many of these trees are coated in feet of ice!

Great pics! That almost doesn't even look real.

[Trent]

Great pics! That almost doesn't even look real.

Thanks. The light house here was also covered creating a surreal image. It made international news.

[Trent]

I think it's time to say storm cancel for tomorrow.

The last time CLE had more than 2" from system snow was back on February 16th! Christmas prospects look slimmer and slimmer this far north.

Perhaps some transient LES will whiten things up.

[michsnowfreak]

I think it's time to say storm cancel for tomorrow.

The last time CLE had more than 2" from system snow was back on February 16th! Christmas prospects look slimmer and slimmer this far north.

Perhaps some transient LES will whiten things up.

Not even in late February with that retrograding L? It actually amazes me how little synoptic snow CLE has been getting recently, yet from a total snowfall perspective they make it up, and some, with LES. I used to always be jealous that Cleveland got so much more snow than Detroit, yet it really seems that a lot of it is LES. DTW has seen 4 synoptic snowstorms over 2" since Feb 17th (6.9" - Feb 21/22 ** 3.1" - Feb 24 ** 3.4" - Feb 25/26 ** 6.3" - Dec 12).

[NEOH]

I think it's time to say storm cancel for tomorrow.

The last time CLE had more than 2" from system snow was back on February 16th! Christmas prospects look slimmer and slimmer this far north.

Perhaps some transient LES will whiten things up.

Yep, looks like a flurry or two tomorrow but that's about it.

I'm still have some hope for the Christmas storm... but as you mentioned it doesn't look like anything significant. A whiff to the south looks likely. Winds will be coming around to the North over the weekend so perphaps LES will kick in... with a huron fetch for a change.

[carumba]

Not even in late February with that retrograding L? It actually amazes me how little synoptic snow CLE has been getting recently, yet from a total snowfall perspective they make it up, and some, with LES. I used to always be jealous that Cleveland got so much more snow than Detroit, yet it really seems that a lot of it is LES. DTW has seen 4 synoptic snowstorms over 2" since Feb 17th (6.9" - Feb 21/22 ** 3.1" - Feb 24 ** 3.4" - Feb 25/26 ** 6.3" - Dec 12).

Yeah, synoptic snow has been very hard to come by here in Cleveland. I live in the snowbelt on the east side of town and although we've had snow pretty much every day here in December, there has been precious little snow outside of LES.

[michsnowfreak]

Yep, looks like a flurry or two tomorrow but that's about it.

I'm still have some hope for the Christmas storm... but as you mentioned it doesn't look like anything significant. A whiff to the south looks likely. Winds will be coming around to the North over the weekend so perphaps LES will kick in... with a huron fetch for a change.

Tomorrow is one thing, but dont be so sure about the Christmas storm yet. Lot of NWS's in the midwest seem to be going with a more northerly track

[OHSnow]

Snowing at a pretty good clip here -- big, fluffy flakes. Visibility under a mile, picked up about a half inch so far.

[NEOH]

Tomorrow is one thing, but dont be so sure about the Christmas storm yet. Lot of NWS's in the midwest seem to be going with a more northerly track

I still not counting out the Christmas storm at this point. Cautious optimism.

Buckeye posted a discussion from GRR I believe in the 12/25 storm thread.... about the liklihood that the storm will be farther north than what the models are showing. Still 5 days away. A lot will change over the next few days... hopefully this trends in our favor.

[Trent]

Snowing at a pretty good clip here -- big, fluffy flakes. Visibility under a mile, picked up about a half inch so far.

Yeah. There was a quick LES band through downtown as well, dropping visibilities, but long gone now. Probably a tenth or two.

[Trent]

Yep, looks like a flurry or two tomorrow but that's about it.

I'm still have some hope for the Christmas storm... but as you mentioned it doesn't look like anything significant. A whiff to the south looks likely. Winds will be coming around to the North over the weekend so perphaps LES will kick in... with a huron fetch for a change.

CLE is actually starting a snowfall deficit now. Regardless of whether the storm on Christmas misses, it will set the stage for unpredictable, untrackable, yet reliable for a few inches LES. Perhaps the Huron connection will be more favorable.

I'm not going to complain because the LES storm 2 weeks ago was incredible and wont be topped this winter. It's just getting frustrating that we can't seem to get one system around these parts. Half my winter excitement comes from tracking storms, which have been non existent for quite some time.