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Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

wonder how many storms we will have this winter take a similar track to todays. a little further east and it could be a really fun winter... provided there is some cold air around.

This would have been the classic front end thump snow of 3-5", followed by a warm dry slot, melt an inch or two, and then LES on the back end. Rinse, repeat, all winter long.

The snowfall from the weekend before last seems like a distant memory. I'm quite surprised that CLE only reported trace from that. Even here at the shore the ground was briefly coated, must have been the intensity here that did it.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

Finally found this thread! lol

It is indeed nice to see the same old "faces" here. This thread has become a winter tradition for me. :snowman:

Me too man I was pretty saddened when I seen Eastern down, then I jumped to the easteruswx facebook and seen someone mention this page and I was rejuvenated. I was worried many of you guys wouldnt find the place. Got all of my Christmas lights up on the house. Will have to take some pics and post em, get everyone in the winter spirit haha.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

This would have been the classic front end thump snow of 3-5", followed by a warm dry slot, melt an inch or two, and then LES on the back end. Rinse, repeat, all winter long.

The snowfall from the weekend before last seems like a distant memory. I'm quite surprised that CLE only reported trace from that. Even here at the shore the ground was briefly coated, must have been the intensity here that did it.

Good to see you here Trent. The former snowyone on eastern here. Yep, it would have one heck of a front end dump though. Are you thinking this will be the pre-dominant track this winter? I actually wouldn't mind it... wouldn't take much a shift east to put the upper OV in a great spot.

Yeah, last weeks snow is a memory... didn't expect it to last long though. It was nice while it lasted. CLE's snowfall reporting is always suspect. They don't even have an employee of the NWS doing the measuring... according to Jim at the CLE NWS they use an FAA contract employee... who is also doing 5 other jobs so taking accurate snow measurements is probably not a priority.

I'm looking forward to the week at T'giving. Could be interesting around here.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Steve, Buckeye and others. I got last post on old board. Logged in today and seen the news and my heart sank. Didn't know what I was gonna do this winter without the board. Hope jbcmh and others find this. Glad to see you all again.

I'm here. As I told Buckeye in October, not sure I'm going to be as informative in regards to stats, etc this year as in previous years. I lost a good portion of my info in computer crashes. I didn't lose everything, but most of my up to date stuff including info I had collected all the way back to 1886 is gone. Going to take a long time to get it all back. That's why I didn't put out of winter forecast this season. Still, my guess at this point is that we will see a much warmer winter than last, but still a decent shot at at least normal snowfall. If we can get on the good side of the cold, with the typical Nina wet pattern in the OV, we could see a season like 07-08 where we just need one good storm to make it memorable.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

I'm here. As I told Buckeye in October, not sure I'm going to be as informative in regards to stats, etc this year as in previous years. I lost a good portion of my info in computer crashes. I didn't lose everything, but most of my up to date stuff including info I had collected all the way back to 1886 is gone. Going to take a long time to get it all back. That's why I didn't put out of winter forecast this season. Still, my guess at this point is that we will see a much warmer winter than last, but still a decent shot at at least normal snowfall. If we can get on the good side of the cold, with the typical Nina wet pattern in the OV, we could see a season like 07-08 where we just need one good storm to make it memorable.

CARBONITE ...it's awesome

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Where has that big cold blast gone? Looks like it was pushed way back till after thanksgiving!! Not another winter where the cold air keeps getting pushed back!!

I wouldn't fret Steve. Models typically are too fast with significant pattern changes but the teleconnectors (-AO/-NAO) are favorable and point to a cold dump at some point at the end of this month.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Yeah, it won't be happening again. Huge mistake on my part. I worked on that stuff for years putting it all together and coming with every variation of stat I could think of... it's sickening.

unfortunately it seems we all have to get hit in the gut first before we take action. I had a hard drive crash on my computer a few years back during the busiest time for my business. I had been hap-hazardly backing up before that, (whenever i thought about it). I was sooo screwed. I never want that feeling again.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Yeah, it won't be happening again. Huge mistake on my part. I worked on that stuff for years putting it all together and coming with every variation of stat I could think of... it's sickening.

That sucks man...sorry to hear. Unfortunately something similar happened to me a few years back. I'm getting to the point now that I'm going to need to save what I've reconstructed to somewhere safe.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't fret Steve. Models typically are too fast with significant pattern changes but the teleconnectors (-AO/-NAO) are favorable and point to a cold dump at some point at the end of this month.

not to throw salt on anyone's ice, (i just made up that one), but it looks like those indices start heading in the wrong direction as DEC 1 approaches. The nao and ao start heading back to neutral and the pna after a nice rise, begins to fall back as well.

i'm convinced we'll get a cold shot after turkey day and before DEC 1st.....i'm not convinced it will be that brutal or have much staying power.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

not to throw salt on anyone's ice, (i just made up that one), but it looks like those indices start heading in the wrong direction as DEC 1 approaches. The nao and ao start heading back to neutral and the pna after a nice rise, begins to fall back as well.

i'm convinced we'll get a cold shot after turkey day and before DEC 1st.....i'm not convinced it will be that brutal or have much staying power.

Heading up but still in negative territory. I think it will last at least into early December, beyond that who knows. I think the greatest negative anomalies are likely to occur to our north/west, but that might not necessarily be a bad thing.

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

I know probably not a big deal but looks like the Cincy area has dropped around freezing most spots and even though we will probably see a slight rise...its def not gonna be the forecasted lows of upper 30s of earlier so not to sure on the upper levels (NWS says should be warm enough for just rain or Frz. rain) but then said a flake or sleet pellet could be possible to., Something interesting to watch none the less when the little precip moves in...,

NWS:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE ALLOWED

TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS

FORECAST...WITH SOME READINGS ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE LOW AND

MID 30S. THIS POSES SOME CHALLENGES FOR LATER TONIGHT AS PRECIP

BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA. LOOKS LIKE MANY AREAS

WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS WHICH OBVIOUSLY BRINGS QUESTIONS TO PRECIP TYPE.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER OFF THE

SURFACE THAT SHOULD GENERALLY ACT TO MELT ANY HYDROMETEORS BEFORE

REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...PRECIP TYPE BECOMES A MATTER OF RAIN

VS FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW...EXPECT THAT INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND

AHEAD OF THE PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FURTHER

OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EVEN ALLOW THEM TO RISE SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE

PRECIP MOVES IN. SO WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS

CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...DO NOT SEE THIS BEING

A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AND THINK THAT PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WILL

BE RAIN. FINE TUNED TEMPS AND POPS OVERNIGHT...AND ADDED SLIGHT

CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO A FEW AREAS. DESPITE WARM LAYER OFF THE

GROUND...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET

PELLETS MIXED IN EITHER.-- End Changed Discussion --

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

not to throw salt on anyone's ice, (i just made up that one), but it looks like those indices start heading in the wrong direction as DEC 1 approaches. The nao and ao start heading back to neutral and the pna after a nice rise, begins to fall back as well.

i'm convinced we'll get a cold shot after turkey day and before DEC 1st.....i'm not convinced it will be that brutal or have much staying power.

I am more concerned with Dec 23-25 =) I'm really hoping for a Christmas storm, Nothing better than doing last minute shopping during a snow storm haha. But looks like first cold shot should come between Nov. 26 - Nov 28, then a retreat. But like I said, I'm more concerned with Christmas.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

not to throw salt on anyone's ice, (i just made up that one), but it looks like those indices start heading in the wrong direction as DEC 1 approaches. The nao and ao start heading back to neutral and the pna after a nice rise, begins to fall back as well.

i'm convinced we'll get a cold shot after turkey day and before DEC 1st.....i'm not convinced it will be that brutal or have much staying power.

Yeah. It looks more and more like a 3-4 transient cold shot. Nothing too out of the ordinary. I wonder if that will be the norm this winter.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Good chance for the first significant lake effect event next week.

Check out CLE's AFD. Cleary there are no weenies in that office --

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODEL TRENDS FOR EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK VERY SIMILAR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GFS STILL FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW...BUT MODELS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY POPS BY TUESDAY. AGAIN MODELS MOVE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST GO CHANCE POPS. UNFORTUNATELY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN MINUS 12C AND MINUS 14C BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TOO FAR TO JUMP ON IT FOR NOW JUST WENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOW BELT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

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dilly84

dilly84

Posted
Posted

Off Topic: Everyone please pray for the families of Tina Herrmann, 32; her son, Kody Maynard, 11; and a friend, Stephanie Sprang, 41 of Howard, and Mount Vernon. As some of you may remember I used to live in Fredericktown, and I'm pretty disgusted that the bodies were found near where I used to go park my car to star search. This type of thing has never happened there, and the families could use all the prayers and support anyone could handle.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

Good chance for the first significant lake effect event next week.

Check out CLE's AFD. Cleary there are no weenies in that office --

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODEL TRENDS FOR EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK VERY SIMILAR. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GFS STILL FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW...BUT MODELS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY POPS BY TUESDAY. AGAIN MODELS MOVE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA LATE

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST GO CHANCE POPS. UNFORTUNATELY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO BETWEEN MINUS 12C AND MINUS 14C BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TOO FAR TO JUMP ON IT FOR NOW JUST WENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOW BELT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

That would be nice. The LES storm two weeks ago would have been incredible had it been a few degrees colder. Getting late enough now, and Erie has cooled enough, that hopefully this will prevent mixing at the shore.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

That would be nice. The LES storm two weeks ago would have been incredible had it been a few degrees colder. Getting late enough now, and Erie has cooled enough, that hopefully this will prevent mixing at the shore.

Still looking good for LES. It would be nice to get an early season general storm for a change... been awhile since we've had one. Don't think its going to happen with this storm though.

I think everyone from the lakeshore to inland will see accumulating snow with the LES. I know it's too early to look at wind direction but it certainly looks like a solid W-NW fetch... A few days ago it looked like a WSW event. If 850's can get down to -12 to -14 there are going to be some impressive bands. Moisture looks good as well.

I don't see much model agreement but CLE seems to think so --

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MODELS NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING STORM MOVEMENT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE WET. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF TRACK A LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSING TO THE SE ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE GFS ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOULD GET LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX. WILL TRY FOR UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY...BUT SUSPECT THAT THOSE NUMBERS WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED AT SOME POINT.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

Looks like we're off the table for a snowstorm down here :thumbsdown: Maybe we can get some back-end snow....Guess there is always the clipper on Saturday :axe:

I think it's unwise for people to expect any type of accumulating snow before or around Thanksgiving in the eastern OV. Everyone loves thinking about 1950, but even relatively minor events are hard to come by before December. We get teased by the models every single year and if there is a storm at all, it tends to be well west of us. Climo just isn't in our favor yet. Not to say it could never happen, but need to be realistic.

Most significant November snowfalls in Columbus since 1948, in chronological order:

11/23-11/28/1950: 15.2"

11/29/1952: 2.3"

11/26-27/1953: 2.6"

11/18-11/19/1955: 4.6"

11/28/1958: 6.2"

11/2-11/3/1966: 5.7"

11/28-11/29/1966: 4.4"

11/30/1967: 4.0"

11/30/1972: 4.0"

11/28-11/29/1976: 2.4"

11/26-27/1977: 2.2"

11/17-11/18/1980: 6.1"

We have not even had anything 2" or more in 30 years.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

I think it's unwise for people to expect any type of accumulating snow before or around Thanksgiving in the eastern OV. Everyone loves thinking about 1950, but even relatively minor events are hard to come by before December. We get teased by the models every single year and if there is a storm at all, it tends to be well west of us. Climo just isn't in our favor yet. Not to say it could never happen, but need to be realistic.

Most significant November snowfalls in Columbus since 1948, in chronological order:

11/23-11/28/1950: 15.2"

11/29/1952: 2.3"

11/26-27/1953: 2.6"

11/18-11/19/1955: 4.6"

11/28/1958: 6.2"

11/2-11/3/1966: 5.7"

11/28-11/29/1966: 4.4"

11/30/1967: 4.0"

11/30/1972: 4.0"

11/28-11/29/1976: 2.4"

11/26-27/1977: 2.2"

11/17-11/18/1980: 6.1"

We have not even had anything 2" or more in 30 years.

Good stats J... to illustrate how uncommon early season (snow) storms are around here. I don't have CLE's stats but I would imagine they are close to the same.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

Good stats J... to illustrate how uncommon early season (snow) storms are around here. I don't have CLE's stats but I would imagine they are close to the same.

If you exclude LES events it's similar. Otherwise LES events in November are every couple years.

Of next week's concern, would be a shame to have a sw flow after storm passes. It'd hate to waste a great lake effect potential with great lake temps. Last year when we finally had a good flow, the lake was mostly frozen.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

If you exclude LES events it's similar. Otherwise LES events in November are every couple years.

Of next week's concern, would be a shame to have a sw flow after storm passes. It'd hate to waste a great lake effect potential with great lake temps. Last year when we finally had a good flow, the lake was mostly frozen.

The farther west the storm cuts the worse the fetch will be for NE OH. If today's models are the correct solution we'd be looking at w to wsw flow... add in some troughing and congrats WNY and buffalo. The good news this is all likely to change next model run. We are still a long ways out so I'm not too concerned.

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