Ohio And Great Lakes Including (PA,KY,WVA,IN)!

[dilly84]

Many ( in the screw zone ) kinda feel the same way dude. Ofcourse i don't think winter is over ( far from it ) but i do admit alot of frustration with the start of it and cant wait till this damn block is out of here even if it means a coast to coast torch.

Have a better shot at Southern branch storms Id think. You take the chance of ptype issues, but for central Ohio normally you can bank on clippers for a few inches. But so far they've all hit Cincinnati. But what's getting to me is models showing for 2 days a good hit, only to start flopping around 3 days out. Its basically game over for the Tuesday storm. I am glad the gfs took the christmas storm south, gives room for that north shift at least. Models just are becoming stressful lol

[Hoosier]

Not really. The way the pattern looks to set up isn't good. Definitely looks to warm up after Christmas. Congrats to Cincinnati though.

Yeah, but it's only December 18. Winter hasn't even technically started yet.

[dilly84]

Yeah, but it's only December 18. Winter hasn't even technically started yet.

More frustration and aggravation than anything Hoosier lol

[wxdudemike]

Disappointing trends with the Tuesday storm... But at least Christmas Eve is still looking interesting. I would really prefer not to have a massive storm screw up everything though, but I also don't want to rain to wash away the snow pack! So here's to cold and dry

......

Then again, a giant snow storm would still be cool

[dilly84]

Disappointing trends with the Tuesday storm... But at least Christmas Eve is still looking interesting. I would really prefer not to have a massive storm screw up everything though, but I also don't want to rain to wash away the snow pack! So here's to cold and dry

Then again, a giant snow storm would still be cool

Well I have a 1/2 inch snow pack and a white christma would be nice so I'm relying on one of these to dump at least 4" lol

[dilly84]

18z nam comes in slaughtering us...

With a few flurries

[dilly84]

Out to 48 the gfs doesnt look too bad.... yet... Okay. It gets shredded as it reaches us. But does slavage .1 - .25 I am with Henry. I am ready for the torch after Christmas just to get this damn blocking pattern outta here.

[BuckeyeSam]

I chose not to get disappointed, or excited either way for at least another 24 hours. Especially since we're still just mid Dec. I think we've got two decent opportunities in the next week that would give us a white Christmas. That's far better than most years around here.

[BuckeyeSam]

Maybe it's just me, but I'd much rather have the storm show a little south 6 days out than a little north.

[dilly84]

I chose not to get disappointed, or excited either way for at least another 24 hours. Especially since we're still just mid Dec. I think we've got two decent opportunities in the next week that would give us a white Christmas. That's far better than most years around here.

First threat is dwindling fast and the christmas storm is moving south now, so im a little worried. And yes. I said I am glad the Christmas Eve storm went south for now.

[vespasian70]

Isn't the GFS and NAM good for 2" or 3" around central OH? I'd take it and hope for the best with the end of the week storm.

[BuckeyeSam]

First threat is dwindling fast and the christmas storm is moving south now, so im a little worried. And yes. I said I am glad the Christmas Eve storm went south for now.

Without getting overly analytical(other OH folks much more knowledgeable than I am) I like our chances on Tue, not for a big storm but I'll take a couple inches just to keep it looking wintry. It doesn't look likely to give us any more than that at this point, but that's pretty typical for a clipper here.

After that I'm excited just to have something to track that might give us snow on Christmas Eve.

[dilly84]

Without getting overly analytical(other OH folks much more knowledgeable than I am) I like our chances on Tue, not for a big storm but I'll take a couple inches just to keep it looking wintry. It doesn't look likely to give us any more than that at this point, but that's pretty typical for a clipper here.

After that I'm excited just to have something to track that might give us snow on Christmas Eve.

I follow the models, so right now 72hrs out I don't like our chance for Tuesday. Model trends aren't in our favor

[Steve]

Will take whatever we can get!!

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

[BuckeyeSam]

I follow the models, so right now 72hrs out I don't like our chance for Tuesday. Model trends aren't in our favor

Gfs is giving us a couple inches and the nam isn't worth a crap outside of 36 hrs. You're right about the trend though. It has been trending worse for us. But I'll want to see the trend continue for the next few runs before I throw in the towel.

[dilly84]

Well 0z runs will tell us a lot. Nam looks bad for us here out to 66. I'm done with the Tuesday storm, now focused on next Friday.

[buckeye]

Well 0z runs will tell us a lot. Nam looks bad for us here out to 66. I'm done with the Tuesday storm, now focused on next Friday.

the tuesday storm basically boils down to this. A clipper tracking very far north of us with warm air lifting out ahead out of the southwest. Anything we get will be a result of that waa. Monday/Tuesday is not our clipper per se. You're right about friday and having interest in that.

Remember though, what the models did with the monday clipper, it might hold clues for potential bias with friday's storm which is also coming out of the central rockies heading east. I'm kind of hoping the gfs keeps it south at this time frame....i'm sure, just like the clipper it will begin to trend north over time.

[dilly84]

the tuesday storm basically boils down to this. A clipper tracking very far north of us with warm air lifting out ahead out of the southwest. Anything we get will be a result of that waa. Monday/Tuesday is not our clipper per se. You're right about friday and having interest in that.

Remember though, what the models did with the monday clipper, it might hold clues for potential bias with friday's storm which is also coming out of the central rockies heading east. I'm kind of hoping the gfs keeps it south at this time frame....i'm sure, just like the clipper it will begin to trend north over time.

Oh I personally have about a 10% confidence level that either will affect us. Just not our month. Just hoping this clipper can move this blocking pattern we're in some, so hopefully the Christmas snow doesn't follow the exact same track

[dilly84]

I will take the 0z gfs for Christmas eve. Let the north trend begin again. Big hit for us on Christmas day. Don't like where we're at so far out. But the low is wayyy south of the Tuesday storms low location. Id gladly take the misses of all these other storms we've missed out on, for the 0z to come true lol.

[dilly84]

Hmm kinda scary all of the model consensus for the Christmas Eve storm. All have the low around the same area, but get there in different ways.

[OHSnow]

Update -- Snowiest Months on Record at YNG

December 2010 46.9 (through 12/18)

January 1999 36.4

February 2010 36.3

January 1978 36.0

January 2009 35.8

February 2008 31.7

January 2007 31.5

March 1993 30.9

November 1950 30.6

January 2004 30.3

January 1948 30.1

[Trent]

It's going to be a close call whether Cleveland will have an official white Christmas this year. The west side (including airport) is pretty much down to a trace - 1" of snow. If the Tuesday storm fizzles and temps rise above freezing, might be just enough to wipe out most of the snow.

All eyes to the Christmas storm now, let's see if the NW trend starts when we could use it.

[Trent]

Update -- Snowiest Months on Record at YNG

December 2010 46.9 (through 12/18)

January 1999 36.4

February 2010 36.3

January 1978 36.0

January 2009 35.8

February 2008 31.7

January 2007 31.5

March 1993 30.9

November 1950 30.6

January 2004 30.3

January 1948 30.1

I find the stats at YNG to be quite peculiar. Why is it that all of a sudden after decades of records, they are getting record amounts of snow? Why is it that they never received copious amounts of Lake Effect Snow prior to 2005?

[dilly84]

I find the stats at YNG to be quite peculiar. Why is it that all of a sudden after decades of records, they are getting record amounts of snow? Why is it that they never received copious amounts of Lake Effect Snow prior to 2005?

I agree. I don't buy it. Heck they're close to Ashtabula, who gets hammered by LES. But I also find it odd that they seem to break a record every year now. Like they got someone cheating when measuring.

[jbcmh81]

I hope no one has given up on the Tuesday event. I still think most of Ohio sees a few inches out of it. I don't buy that all the heavy snow over Iowa, etc just dies out as it reaches us. Still, it won't be spectacular, but another small event to keep adding to our ground cover and monthly totals. The Christmas storm I'm not even going to comment on at this point. I could see a lot of different things happening with that and it's not at a good range yet.

Also I hope that no one is planning on a warm January just yet either. The AO might not even reach neutral let alone positive if the new forecasts are right. If we end up going into another strong blocking the first week of January, I am going to like 1903-04/1962-63 a lot more for how this winter may play out. But given the unprecedented strength of the -AO for a December, it's really hard to know where exactly we are going with this. Speaking of December, the departures so far this month are pretty incredible so far. Here are the means and departures through 12/18.

Dayton

22.7

-10.6

Columbus

24.4

-10.8

Cincinnati

24.1

-12.2

Cleveland

25.1

-8.1

Toledo

23.0

-8.2

Mansfield

21.3

-10.2

As far as I can tell, most of these are within top 15 or top 10 coldest Decembers so far. It really does not look to warm up before month's end, so these could easily drop more. Here are the top 10 coldest Decembers for Columbus since 1948:

1. 1989: 19.3

2. 1963: 21.6

3. 1958: 23.4

4. 2000: 23.4

5. 1950: 24.8

6. 1976: 24.8

7. 1983: 24.9

8. 1960. 25.1

9. 1985: 26.0

10. 1969: 26.8

So if we stayed where we are, we'd be in the top 5 since 1948. I'll have to find numbers back to 1896 if I can.

[dilly84]

I hope no one has given up on the Tuesday event. I still think most of Ohio sees a few inches out of it. I don't buy that all the heavy snow over Iowa, etc just dies out as it reaches us. Still, it won't be spectacular, but another small event to keep adding to our ground cover and monthly totals. The Christmas storm I'm not even going to comment on at this point. I could see a lot of different things happening with that and it's not at a good range yet.

I've given up getting anything more than 1/2 inch for Tuesday. And as for Christmas Eve/Christmas.. I can't remember a time seeing this much model consensus. It worries me but I think we're going to get something from it.

[Hoosier]

I hope no one has given up on the Tuesday event. I still think most of Ohio sees a few inches out of it. I don't buy that all the heavy snow over Iowa, etc just dies out as it reaches us. Still, it won't be spectacular, but another small event to keep adding to our ground cover and monthly totals. The Christmas storm I'm not even going to comment on at this point. I could see a lot of different things happening with that and it's not at a good range yet.

Also I hope that no one is planning on a warm January just yet either. The AO might not even reach neutral let alone positive if the new forecasts are right. If we end up going into another strong blocking the first week of January, I am going to like 1903-04/1962-63 a lot more for how this winter may play out. But given the unprecedented strength of the -AO for a December, it's really hard to know where exactly we are going with this. Speaking of December, the departures so far this month are pretty incredible so far. Here are the means and departures through 12/18.

Dayton

22.7

-10.6

Columbus

24.4

-10.8

Cincinnati

24.1

-12.2

Cleveland

25.1

-8.1

Toledo

23.0

-8.2

Mansfield

21.3

-10.2

As far as I can tell, most of these are within top 15 or top 10 coldest Decembers so far. It really does not look to warm up before month's end, so these could easily drop more. Here are the top 10 coldest Decembers for Columbus since 1948:

1. 1989: 19.3

2. 1963: 21.6

3. 1958: 23.4

4. 2000: 23.4

5. 1950: 24.8

6. 1976: 24.8

7. 1983: 24.9

8. 1960. 25.1

9. 1985: 26.0

10. 1969: 26.8

So if we stayed where we are, we'd be in the top 5 since 1948. I'll have to find numbers back to 1896 if I can.

It's only December 19 and I already think my winter forecast is in trouble. Who could've forseen these types of negative anomalies in the OV/southeast. The pattern is going to moderate...it basically has to...but it's going to take a lot to wipe out these negatives especially with the possibility of another strong blocking episode looming later in the winter. I think there's a good chance that the OV finishes the winter (DJF) with below average temps, and this may even extend into the southeast although it's a bit of a tougher call there as the southeast ridge would be more prone to eat away at the built up departures.

[Trent]

If anything does fall from the Tuesday event, looks to be nothing to write home about, but maybe enough to cover the grass here again.

Dilly, do you even have a snow pack there?

The Christmas storm has too many unknown variables at this point. Considering it's day 6, it's going to be watch and see for the next few days. GFS shows quite an expansive precip shield to the north for a low tracking that far south.

[Trent]

I hope no one has given up on the Tuesday event. I still think most of Ohio sees a few inches out of it. I don't buy that all the heavy snow over Iowa, etc just dies out as it reaches us. Still, it won't be spectacular, but another small event to keep adding to our ground cover and monthly totals. The Christmas storm I'm not even going to comment on at this point. I could see a lot of different things happening with that and it's not at a good range yet.

Also I hope that no one is planning on a warm January just yet either. The AO might not even reach neutral let alone positive if the new forecasts are right. If we end up going into another strong blocking the first week of January, I am going to like 1903-04/1962-63 a lot more for how this winter may play out. But given the unprecedented strength of the -AO for a December, it's really hard to know where exactly we are going with this. Speaking of December, the departures so far this month are pretty incredible so far. Here are the means and departures through 12/18.

Dayton

22.7

-10.6

Columbus

24.4

-10.8

Cincinnati

24.1

-12.2

Cleveland

25.1

-8.1

Toledo

23.0

-8.2

Mansfield

21.3

-10.2

As far as I can tell, most of these are within top 15 or top 10 coldest Decembers so far. It really does not look to warm up before month's end, so these could easily drop more. Here are the top 10 coldest Decembers for Columbus since 1948:

1. 1989: 19.3

2. 1963: 21.6

3. 1958: 23.4

4. 2000: 23.4

5. 1950: 24.8

6. 1976: 24.8

7. 1983: 24.9

8. 1960. 25.1

9. 1985: 26.0

10. 1969: 26.8

So if we stayed where we are, we'd be in the top 5 since 1948. I'll have to find numbers back to 1896 if I can.

December has effectively wiped out CLE's hottest year on record and finally ended the 16 month streak without a below normal temperature month. It will definitely take two months of torch to erase this December departure, hence DJF should be solidly in negative territory.

It will be interesting to see what happens to snowfall. CLE now averages at least 0.5" or 0.6" daily through March 2nd. Currently sitting right at normal for the season.

[jbcmh81]

It's only December 19 and I already think my winter forecast is in trouble. Who could've forseen these types of negative anomalies in the OV/southeast. The pattern is going to moderate...it basically has to...but it's going to take a lot to wipe out these negatives especially with the possibility of another strong blocking episode looming later in the winter. I think there's a good chance that the OV finishes the winter (DJF) with below average temps, and this may even extend into the southeast although it's a bit of a tougher call there as the southeast ridge would be more prone to eat away at the built up departures.

The big questions for me is, when the moderation happens, how extreme will it be and how long does it last. A lot of forecasts did have December being the coldest month of the winter, and it still very well may be, but if blocking persists or continues to redevelop over the course of the season, a lot of the calls for a warm January/February are going to bust. The ensembles showing the AO heading back down around the 1st of January may be a sign of things to come. As last winter taught us... ENSO can be as strong as it wants and the AO will simply overpower it.